# Daniel Kokotajlo

Daniel Kokotajlo develops AI forecasts and scenarios, including AI 2027; scenario assumptions and revisions remain distinct from observed outcomes.

Type: person. Context selected by Escape Meridian; inclusion is not endorsement.

[Collection](/entities/daniel-kokotajlo)
[Primary reference](https://ai-2027.com/)

## Sources

- [Daniel Kokotajlo — existing tracker reference](https://ai-2027.com/): Connect the existing canonical profile to its evidence in the source corpus without adding a new statement or relationship registry.

## Perspectives


## Terminal notes


## Parallels


## Context references

- [https://ai-2027.com/](https://ai-2027.com/)
- [https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/timelines-june-2025](https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/timelines-june-2025)

Legacy published distillations: [Publications API](/api/pipeline/publications?entity=daniel-kokotajlo)

## Profile and attribution

Escape Meridian selects and paraphrases these records. A mention, shared topic or affiliation does not establish authorship, endorsement, agreement or causation. Missing positions remain unknown.

AI forecaster and AI 2027 coauthor
Profile reviewed: 2026-10-14.
Produces explicit AI scenarios and engages directly with disputed learning timelines.
AI progress and research automation; scenario writing is not an observed outcome.
Coauthors AI 2027; his published forecasts are part of the argument being examined.
- [AI 2027 authors and research](https://ai-2027.com/)
- [His dated reply to Patel](https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/timelines-june-2025)

## Dated contributor context


## Roles and affiliations

- [Daniel Kokotajlo](/entities/daniel-kokotajlo) · [AI Futures Project](/entities/ai-futures-project): AI Futures Project coauthor, stating his own median (source-publication: 2026-04-02). [Q1 2026 Timelines Update](https://blog.aifutures.org/p/q1-2026-timelines-update)

## Dated statements

- 2026-04-02 — [Automated coding staff by mid-2028](/tracker/?question=ai-and-work&statement=kokotajlo-automated-coder-2026): Kokotajlo's median for the Automated Coder milestone moved from late 2029 to mid-2028. The milestone is the point at which an AGI company would rather lay off all its human software engineers than stop using AI for software engineering. Attributed to Daniel Kokotajlo, in a post with Eli Lifland and Brendan Halstead. [Original source](https://blog.aifutures.org/p/q1-2026-timelines-update). Byline date reads Apr 02, 2026. Late 2029 is the previous median as reported in this post; the earlier source of that figure was not checked in this review. Mid-2028 is not converted into a month. A median is recorded as 50% because he called it a median.
- 2025-06-03 — [AI research could shorten the wait](/tracker/?question=ai-and-work&statement=kokotajlo-learning-2028): Kokotajlo gives end-2028 as his median for the learning milestone, anticipating faster progress after automated coding and research. Attributed to Daniel Kokotajlo. [Original source](https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/timelines-june-2025). Date of this author's comment, not the parent essay's date. A forecast in a direct reply, not a demonstrated learning system.

## Connected questions

- [When does an AI become a dependable colleague?](/tracker/?question=ai-and-work)

## Comparisons and changes


## Current readings

Checked all 12 current publications. Showing up to 30 connected readings, ordered by original source date.
No current reading is connected to this identity in the checked collection.