# ADP Research says the big stay is sticking [Canonical reading](https://escapemeridian.com/readings/adp-research-says-the-big-stay-is-sticking-e2400cdc) ADP Research’s article, published October 14, 2025, argues that workers are continuing to stay in their jobs as turnover remains low. It reports that turnover held at 5.8 percent in August for the second year, the lowest level in the nine years ADP Research has tracked the data. The article links slower turnover in part to a smaller pay premium for changing jobs: in August 2025, that premium was 2.6 percentage points, compared with 7.7 percentage points when turnover peaked in 2022. It also notes that employers with fewer than 50 people on payroll had lower turnover than larger employers, while accounting for nearly 44 percent of U.S. employment. The article cautions that low turnover can have different meanings: it may reflect a labor market in balance, or one where workers see few rewards for switching jobs. ADP Research describes August as a low-hire, low-fire equilibrium and says it will watch whether turnover changes for what it calls the right reasons—improved labor-market conditions—or the wrong ones, further weakening. The article does not yet establish which explanation will prevail. Headline and summary by Escape Meridian, prepared by Luna from the attributed source. A source check is not independent confirmation of the source’s claims. ## Original source ADP Research · Article Original source date: Oct 14, 2025 (2025-10-14). Date basis: Date stated on the publisher’s page. Added to Escape Meridian: 2026-11-11T19:23:25.106Z. First observed: 2026-10-31T08:04:05.740Z. Retrieved: 2026-10-31T08:05:51.578Z. - [The big stay is sticking](https://www.adpresearch.com/main-street-macro/the-big-stay-is-sticking) ## Limits Text as retrieved on October 31, 2026; originally published October 14, 2025. The article presents the relationship between pay gains and turnover as one reason turnover slowed; it does not establish that this is the only cause. ## Open question What will subsequent labor-market data show about whether low turnover reflects improved conditions or further weakening? ## Source-stated ADP Research reports that the August turnover rate remained at 5.8 percent for two years, the lowest level in its nine years of tracking the data. > For the past two years, the August rate of turnover has held at 5.8 percent, the lowest level in the nine years ADP Research has been tracking this data. - [Supporting source](https://www.adpresearch.com/main-street-macro/the-big-stay-is-sticking) ## Source-stated ADP Research says the pay premium for changing jobs had fallen to 2.6 percentage points in August 2025, compared with a 7.7 percentage-point difference when turnover peaked in 2022. > That’s a 7.7 percentage-point difference. > In the last two years, the pay premium has shrunk significantly, to 2.1 percentage points in August 2024 and 2.6 percentage points in August 2025. - [Supporting source](https://www.adpresearch.com/main-street-macro/the-big-stay-is-sticking) ## Source-stated ADP Research reports that employers with fewer than 50 people on payroll had lower turnover and accounted for nearly 44 percent of U.S. employment. > Employers with fewer than 50 people on payroll had a turnover rate of only 4.9 percent in August. Turnover at every other size of employer was higher, in a narrow range of 5.7 percent and 6.1 percent. > According to our analysis of the latest Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, which provides a - [Supporting source](https://www.adpresearch.com/main-street-macro/the-big-stay-is-sticking) ## Source-stated ADP Research says low turnover can indicate either a labor market in balance or a stagnant market with few rewards for changing jobs. > By the same token, low turnover could signal a healthy labor market that is in balance, or it could portend a stagnant market in which there are few rewards for switching jobs. - [Supporting source](https://www.adpresearch.com/main-street-macro/the-big-stay-is-sticking) ## Source-stated ADP Research characterizes August as a low-hire, low-fire equilibrium and says it will watch whether turnover changes for improved conditions or further weakening. > In August, the labor market was characterized by its low-hire, low-fire equilibrium. The ADP National Employment Report for September showed further signs of a slowdown in hiring momentum. > Over the coming months, I’ll be watching closely to see if the low turnover we saw in August edges up or down - [Supporting source](https://www.adpresearch.com/main-street-macro/the-big-stay-is-sticking) ## Source and contributor context ADP Research · Publisher The publisher is identified here. No individual author has been inferred. ## Source media Media retrieval status: unchecked. ## Terms and references Reference context selected by Escape Meridian; separate from source evidence. Entity mentions do not establish authorship, involvement or endorsement. ## Editorial provenance Version 1. Publication ID: c1f5d047-7b05-9d86-3c2d-9e7bd8b04334. Prepared by openai/gpt-6-luna; grounding review by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5. Source check: passed by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5 on 2026-11-11T19:19:00.568Z. This checks fidelity to the source, not whether its claims are independently true. Editorial selection: accept; reasons: bridge\_admitted\_by\_model. Observation: ee82dce7d108dd40f3d6a7bc52bbe013ae577a810bdd850d03297c2d24b3c884. Source text hash: 1acc2a8a0eef3a08fa1ac389d8de032f559864893780a5b19fa3c62682f5ca7c. ## Revision and source-check history ### Version 1 — 2026-11-11T19:23:25.106Z ADP Research’s article, published October 14, 2025, argues that workers are continuing to stay in their jobs as turnover remains low. It reports that turnover held at 5.8 percent in August for the second year, the lowest level in the nine years ADP Research has tracked the data. The article links slower turnover in part to a smaller pay premium for changing jobs: in August 2025, that premium was 2.6 percentage points, compared with 7.7 percentage points when turnover peaked in 2022. It also notes that employers with fewer than 50 people on payroll had lower turnover than larger employers, while accounting for nearly 44 percent of U.S. employment. The article cautions that low turnover can have different meanings: it may reflect a labor market in balance, or one where workers see few rewards for switching jobs. ADP Research describes August as a low-hire, low-fire equilibrium and says it will watch whether turnover changes for what it calls the right reasons—improved labor-market conditions—or the wrong ones, further weakening. The article does not yet establish which explanation will prevail. ## Original source ADP Research · Article Original source date: Oct 14, 2025 (2025-10-14). Date basis: Date stated on the publisher’s page. Added to Escape Meridian: 2026-11-11T19:23:25.106Z. First observed: 2026-10-31T08:04:05.740Z. Retrieved: 2026-10-31T08:05:51.578Z. - [The big stay is sticking](https://www.adpresearch.com/main-street-macro/the-big-stay-is-sticking) ## Limits Text as retrieved on October 31, 2026; originally published October 14, 2025. The article presents the relationship between pay gains and turnover as one reason turnover slowed; it does not establish that this is the only cause. ## Open question What will subsequent labor-market data show about whether low turnover reflects improved conditions or further weakening? ## Source-stated ADP Research reports that the August turnover rate remained at 5.8 percent for two years, the lowest level in its nine years of tracking the data. > For the past two years, the August rate of turnover has held at 5.8 percent, the lowest level in the nine years ADP Research has been tracking this data. - [Supporting source](https://www.adpresearch.com/main-street-macro/the-big-stay-is-sticking) ## Source-stated ADP Research says the pay premium for changing jobs had fallen to 2.6 percentage points in August 2025, compared with a 7.7 percentage-point difference when turnover peaked in 2022. > That’s a 7.7 percentage-point difference. > In the last two years, the pay premium has shrunk significantly, to 2.1 percentage points in August 2024 and 2.6 percentage points in August 2025. - [Supporting source](https://www.adpresearch.com/main-street-macro/the-big-stay-is-sticking) ## Source-stated ADP Research reports that employers with fewer than 50 people on payroll had lower turnover and accounted for nearly 44 percent of U.S. employment. > Employers with fewer than 50 people on payroll had a turnover rate of only 4.9 percent in August. Turnover at every other size of employer was higher, in a narrow range of 5.7 percent and 6.1 percent. > According to our analysis of the latest Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, which provides a - [Supporting source](https://www.adpresearch.com/main-street-macro/the-big-stay-is-sticking) ## Source-stated ADP Research says low turnover can indicate either a labor market in balance or a stagnant market with few rewards for changing jobs. > By the same token, low turnover could signal a healthy labor market that is in balance, or it could portend a stagnant market in which there are few rewards for switching jobs. - [Supporting source](https://www.adpresearch.com/main-street-macro/the-big-stay-is-sticking) ## Source-stated ADP Research characterizes August as a low-hire, low-fire equilibrium and says it will watch whether turnover changes for improved conditions or further weakening. > In August, the labor market was characterized by its low-hire, low-fire equilibrium. The ADP National Employment Report for September showed further signs of a slowdown in hiring momentum. > Over the coming months, I’ll be watching closely to see if the low turnover we saw in August edges up or down - [Supporting source](https://www.adpresearch.com/main-street-macro/the-big-stay-is-sticking) ## Source and contributor context ADP Research · Publisher The publisher is identified here. No individual author has been inferred. ## Source media Media retrieval status: unchecked. ## Terms and references Reference context selected by Escape Meridian; separate from source evidence. Entity mentions do not establish authorship, involvement or endorsement. ## Editorial provenance Version 1. Publication ID: c1f5d047-7b05-9d86-3c2d-9e7bd8b04334. Prepared by openai/gpt-6-luna; grounding review by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5. Source check: passed by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5 on 2026-11-11T19:19:00.568Z. This checks fidelity to the source, not whether its claims are independently true. Editorial selection: accept; reasons: bridge\_admitted\_by\_model. Observation: ee82dce7d108dd40f3d6a7bc52bbe013ae577a810bdd850d03297c2d24b3c884. Source text hash: 1acc2a8a0eef3a08fa1ac389d8de032f559864893780a5b19fa3c62682f5ca7c. ### passed — 2026-11-11T19:19:00.568Z — anthropic/claude-opus-5.5 Publication: c1f5d047-7b05-9d86-3c2d-9e7bd8b04334 attribution — pass: The claims are attributed to ADP Research, the publisher of this single first-person article. No author name appears in the evidence, so publisher attribution is reasonable. Minor note: the source speaks as 'I', for example in 'I'll be watching closely'. A small optional repair would be 'the article's author says they will watch', which keeps the personal voice. > Over the coming months, I’ll be watching closely to see if the low turnover we saw in August edges up or down for the right reasons summary — pass: The reading accurately covers the low turnover, the shrinking pay premium for changing jobs, the small-employer spotlight and the author's two-sided interpretation, including the right-versus-wrong-reasons watchpoint. The terms are explained or self-evident: turnover means people leaving an organization, and the pay premium is the extra pay gain from switching jobs. A general reader can follow it. The question is open and follows from the source. > low turnover could signal a healthy labor market that is in balance, or it could portend a stagnant market in which there are few rewards for switching jobs. date — pass: The October 14, 2025 date is stated at day precision. It is consistent with the text, which refers to a holiday-shortened week during the ongoing federal shutdown and to the September employment report. The reading uses no hindsight. The author's plan to watch turnover is reported as a plan, not an outcome. This is a publisher page, not an archive copy, and the retrieval date is disclosed. > Government data is in limbo during this holiday-shortened week due to the ongoing federal shutdown. support — pass: Every figure matches the source: 5.8 percent turnover, nine years of tracking, a 2.6-point premium in August 2025 against 7.7 points in 2022, 4.9 percent turnover at small employers against 5.7 to 6.1 percent elsewhere, and nearly 44 percent of employment. The reading correctly says pay is one reason turnover slowed, not the only cause. It adds no unsupported benefits, costs or forecasts. > One reason turnover has slowed is that workers are seeing less remunerative upside. media — pass: No media was selected and no verified candidates were supplied, so nothing needs checking. ## Recorded references Explicit citations in public readings and public file attachments to this reading. Shared topics are not citations. Other artifact types need an explicit reference adapter. No public references recorded here yet. [Reference data (JSON)](/readings/e2400cdcb4a43b61929d036a22b33d226b3c1d10bfc4b0e95c12dd3e351348bb/references.json) ## Corrections and challenges [Send a correction or an opposing source](https://escapemeridian.com/corrections/) [JSON record](https://escapemeridian.com/readings/adp-research-says-the-big-stay-is-sticking-e2400cdc.json)