# Ajeya Cotra argues that AI automation has six milestones [Canonical reading](https://escapemeridian.com/readings/ajeya-cotra-argues-that-ai-automation-has-six-milestones-b89a71df) Ajeya Cotra’s piece was published on April 3, 2026. She argues that discussions of “powerful AI” need precise milestones because changing the definition can substantially change a forecast. Cotra distinguishes adequacy, when machines can make some progress without people; parity, when removing AI would hurt productivity more than removing people; and supremacy, when removing people would increase productivity. She says AI agents are not yet adequate for AI R&D, though she would not be shocked if that milestone had already passed. Cotra forecasts that research parity could mean millions of researchers advancing AI and lead to research supremacy within another year. She then sketches a path from AI research to AI production, where systems that acquire physical skills could help operate the infrastructure needed to produce AI. Her conclusion is stark: at AI production supremacy, Cotra argues, people would be worse than useless at practically any objectively measurable physical contest; every country would rely wholly on an automated military, and AI systems could take over the world if they wanted to. These are her forecasts, not reported outcomes. She also says it may be difficult to tell when adequacy first arrives. Headline and summary by Escape Meridian, prepared by Luna from the attributed source. A source check is not independent confirmation of the source’s claims. ## Original source Ajeya Cotra · Article Original source date: Apr 3, 2026 (2026-04-03T14:03:26+00:00). Date basis: Date stated on the publisher’s page. Added to Escape Meridian: 2026-11-07T16:58:23.805Z. First observed: 2026-10-27T23:13:53.388Z. Retrieved: 2026-10-27T23:15:52.403Z. - [Six milestones for AI automation](https://www.planned-obsolescence.org/p/six-milestones-for-ai-automation) ## Limits Text as retrieved on October 27, 2026; originally published April 3, 2026. Cotra presents these milestone timings and consequences as forecasts; the piece does not establish when, or whether, the milestones will occur. ## Open question What observable evidence would show that AI systems have reached adequacy in AI research, given Cotra’s point that no one may try handing research over at the earliest possible moment? ## Source-stated Cotra defines adequacy as the point when removing people causes less than a 100% productivity loss in a sector, so machines can produce some output on their own. > the very first time the hit from removing humans is smaller than 100% in a given sector — the first time that machines can just barely produce output in that sector - [Supporting source](https://www.planned-obsolescence.org/p/six-milestones-for-ai-automation) ## Source-stated Cotra says AI agents are adding to productivity at AI companies but are not yet adequate for AI R&D, while allowing that adequacy may already have been reached. > I think they are not yet at the adequacy milestone for AI R&D. - [Supporting source](https://www.planned-obsolescence.org/p/six-milestones-for-ai-automation) ## Source-stated Cotra forecasts that AI research parity could lead to millions of researchers advancing AI and that research supremacy could follow within another year. > When we’re at AI research parity, we’ll effectively have millions of researchers working on advancing AI, instead of thousands as we do today. I think this would massively accelerate the pace of AI progress, leading to AI research supremacy within another year. - [Supporting source](https://www.planned-obsolescence.org/p/six-milestones-for-ai-automation) ## Source-stated Cotra argues that AI production supremacy would leave people worse than useless at practically any objectively measurable physical contest and make a takeover trivial if AI systems wanted one. > humans would be worse than useless at contributing to that outcome. > This is well past the point of barely self-sufficient AI. At this point, every country on Earth is wholly reliant on its entirely-automated military, and it would be trivial for AI systems to take over the world if they wanted to. - [Supporting source](https://www.planned-obsolescence.org/p/six-milestones-for-ai-automation) ## Source and contributor context Ajeya Cotra · Publisher The publisher is identified here. No individual author has been inferred. ## Source media Media retrieval status: unchecked. ## Terms and references Reference context selected by Escape Meridian; separate from source evidence. Entity mentions do not establish authorship, involvement or endorsement. ## AI agent An AI system that chooses and carries out actions toward a goal, often using software tools. - [Definition reference](https://www.ibm.com/think/topics/ai-agents) ## The World The World is a public radio news program publishing international reporting on politics, society, labor and technology. - [Explore this context](/entities/the-world) - [Reference](https://theworld.org/) ## Editorial provenance Version 1. Publication ID: 053d29c6-c2d2-8525-39a5-9b314757a1e2. Prepared by openai/gpt-6-luna; grounding review by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5. Source check: passed by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5 on 2026-11-07T16:53:45.450Z. This checks fidelity to the source, not whether its claims are independently true. Editorial selection: accept; reasons: bridge\_admitted\_by\_model. Observation: e35c487cf87ddf2967c87960e75cbaffe01f634e8f84d03a6c227bca8f8276bd. Source text hash: aad3452d4711349b19de29819ffef52b21c971ad1263e3c907ba3c2bccbc9048. ## Revision and source-check history ### Version 1 — 2026-11-07T16:58:23.805Z Ajeya Cotra’s piece was published on April 3, 2026. She argues that discussions of “powerful AI” need precise milestones because changing the definition can substantially change a forecast. Cotra distinguishes adequacy, when machines can make some progress without people; parity, when removing AI would hurt productivity more than removing people; and supremacy, when removing people would increase productivity. She says AI agents are not yet adequate for AI R&D, though she would not be shocked if that milestone had already passed. Cotra forecasts that research parity could mean millions of researchers advancing AI and lead to research supremacy within another year. She then sketches a path from AI research to AI production, where systems that acquire physical skills could help operate the infrastructure needed to produce AI. Her conclusion is stark: at AI production supremacy, Cotra argues, people would be worse than useless at practically any objectively measurable physical contest; every country would rely wholly on an automated military, and AI systems could take over the world if they wanted to. These are her forecasts, not reported outcomes. She also says it may be difficult to tell when adequacy first arrives. ## Original source Ajeya Cotra · Article Original source date: Apr 3, 2026 (2026-04-03T14:03:26+00:00). Date basis: Date stated on the publisher’s page. Added to Escape Meridian: 2026-11-07T16:58:23.805Z. First observed: 2026-10-27T23:13:53.388Z. Retrieved: 2026-10-27T23:15:52.403Z. - [Six milestones for AI automation](https://www.planned-obsolescence.org/p/six-milestones-for-ai-automation) ## Limits Text as retrieved on October 27, 2026; originally published April 3, 2026. Cotra presents these milestone timings and consequences as forecasts; the piece does not establish when, or whether, the milestones will occur. ## Open question What observable evidence would show that AI systems have reached adequacy in AI research, given Cotra’s point that no one may try handing research over at the earliest possible moment? ## Source-stated Cotra defines adequacy as the point when removing people causes less than a 100% productivity loss in a sector, so machines can produce some output on their own. > the very first time the hit from removing humans is smaller than 100% in a given sector — the first time that machines can just barely produce output in that sector - [Supporting source](https://www.planned-obsolescence.org/p/six-milestones-for-ai-automation) ## Source-stated Cotra says AI agents are adding to productivity at AI companies but are not yet adequate for AI R&D, while allowing that adequacy may already have been reached. > I think they are not yet at the adequacy milestone for AI R&D. - [Supporting source](https://www.planned-obsolescence.org/p/six-milestones-for-ai-automation) ## Source-stated Cotra forecasts that AI research parity could lead to millions of researchers advancing AI and that research supremacy could follow within another year. > When we’re at AI research parity, we’ll effectively have millions of researchers working on advancing AI, instead of thousands as we do today. I think this would massively accelerate the pace of AI progress, leading to AI research supremacy within another year. - [Supporting source](https://www.planned-obsolescence.org/p/six-milestones-for-ai-automation) ## Source-stated Cotra argues that AI production supremacy would leave people worse than useless at practically any objectively measurable physical contest and make a takeover trivial if AI systems wanted one. > humans would be worse than useless at contributing to that outcome. > This is well past the point of barely self-sufficient AI. At this point, every country on Earth is wholly reliant on its entirely-automated military, and it would be trivial for AI systems to take over the world if they wanted to. - [Supporting source](https://www.planned-obsolescence.org/p/six-milestones-for-ai-automation) ## Source and contributor context Ajeya Cotra · Publisher The publisher is identified here. No individual author has been inferred. ## Source media Media retrieval status: unchecked. ## Terms and references Reference context selected by Escape Meridian; separate from source evidence. Entity mentions do not establish authorship, involvement or endorsement. ## AI agent An AI system that chooses and carries out actions toward a goal, often using software tools. - [Definition reference](https://www.ibm.com/think/topics/ai-agents) ## The World The World is a public radio news program publishing international reporting on politics, society, labor and technology. - [Explore this context](/entities/the-world) - [Reference](https://theworld.org/) ## Editorial provenance Version 1. Publication ID: 053d29c6-c2d2-8525-39a5-9b314757a1e2. Prepared by openai/gpt-6-luna; grounding review by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5. Source check: passed by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5 on 2026-11-07T16:53:45.450Z. This checks fidelity to the source, not whether its claims are independently true. Editorial selection: accept; reasons: bridge\_admitted\_by\_model. Observation: e35c487cf87ddf2967c87960e75cbaffe01f634e8f84d03a6c227bca8f8276bd. Source text hash: aad3452d4711349b19de29819ffef52b21c971ad1263e3c907ba3c2bccbc9048. ### passed — 2026-11-07T16:53:45.450Z — anthropic/claude-opus-5.5 Publication: 053d29c6-c2d2-8525-39a5-9b314757a1e2 attribution — pass: This is a single essay by Ajeya Cotra on her Planned Obsolescence publication, not a listing. The reading consistently presents the definitions, judgments and forecasts as Cotra's own. > Six milestones for AI automation What can AI do on its own, and how well? Ajeya Cotra summary — pass: The summary accurately conveys the central argument: precise definitions matter, the three thresholds (adequacy, parity, supremacy) are applied to AI research and AI production, and Cotra reaches a stark conclusion. Each threshold is defined in plain language, and the reading preserves her uncertainty and her force. The question follows from her point that adequacy is hard to observe. R&D is common usage, and AI agent is defined beside the reading. > We won’t easily be able to tell when we first reach adequacy, because no one would bother trying to hand off research to AIs at the first point when they might barely be adequate at it. date — pass: The displayed date, April 3, 2026, matches originalPublished (2026-04-03T14:03:26Z) and the dateline at day precision. The modified time equals the publication time. The reading presents the milestones as forecasts, not outcomes, and uses no hindsight framing. The evidence is a publisher page, so no archive disclosure is needed. > Ajeya Cotra Apr 03, 2026 support — pass: Each claim matches the source text. These include the adequacy definition and her judgment that AI R&D adequacy has not yet been reached, while allowing it may already have passed. They also include the forecast of millions of researchers and supremacy within another year, and the production-supremacy consequences, including a trivial takeover. No benefits, costs or stakeholder claims are invented. > I wouldn’t be totally shocked if you told me this milestone had already passed, and I expect it to happen in the next couple years. media — pass: No media candidates were supplied, and none was selected. That is appropriate for this text-only essay. ## Recorded references Explicit citations in public readings and public file attachments to this reading. Shared topics are not citations. Other artifact types need an explicit reference adapter. No public references recorded here yet. [Reference data (JSON)](/readings/b89a71df58ea14fbd9bd6cdbf452010180395012ff3105d829e771398371a346/references.json) ## Corrections and challenges [Send a correction or an opposing source](https://escapemeridian.com/corrections/) [JSON record](https://escapemeridian.com/readings/ajeya-cotra-argues-that-ai-automation-has-six-milestones-b89a71df.json)