# Cory Stahle and Laura Ullrich argue in Indeed Hiring Lab that the labor market cooled [Canonical reading](https://escapemeridian.com/readings/cory-stahle-and-laura-ullrich-argue-in-indeed-hiring-lab-that-370bc3b3) On February 3, 2026, Cory Stahle and Laura Ullrich of Indeed Hiring Lab argue that the US labor market cooled in 2025, while a partial government shutdown delayed key government data. Indeed’s Job Postings Index (JPI), a measure of job postings, fell from 11.5% above pre-pandemic levels at the start of the year to 4.7% above them at year’s end; Indeed’s Wage Tracker also showed slower growth in advertised salaries. The authors say workers’ confidence in finding other work has weakened and that workers are not changing jobs. They describe the result as a low-hire, low-fire environment, with JPI largely flat in the first three weeks of January. The delayed Jobs Report is expected to include revisions and methodological updates, which the authors say may offer a sharper picture of labor-market trends; those data were not yet available in this account. Looking ahead, they argue that benefits and flexibility will remain important for recruiting and retention as wage growth slows. They also say AI has substantial potential to raise productivity, but many workers remain disengaged, making employer encouragement and training important to realizing that potential. The authors conclude that Indeed’s real-time data can offer insight while the outlook remains cloudy. Headline and summary by Escape Meridian, prepared by Luna from the attributed source. A source check is not independent confirmation of the source’s claims. ## Original source Indeed Hiring Lab · Article Original source date: Feb 3, 2026 (2026-02-03). Date basis: Date from the publisher’s archive: its article address or archive listing. Added to Escape Meridian: 2026-11-08T10:08:23.703Z. First observed: 2026-10-30T19:04:11.118Z. Retrieved: 2026-10-30T19:05:47.549Z. - [Jobs Day Data Is on Hold, and the Labor Market May Be Too](https://hiringlab.indeed.com/2026/02/03/jobs-day-data-is-on-hold-and-the-labor-market-may-be-too/) ## Limits Text as retrieved on October 30, 2026; originally published February 3, 2026. The delayed government data, revisions, and methodological updates had not yet been published in the account, so their effect on the labor-market picture is unknown. The source reports trends in Indeed’s data and does not establish how representative those measures are of the entire labor market. ## Open question How will the delayed revisions and methodological updates change the picture of US employment growth in 2025? ## Source-stated Cory Stahle and Laura Ullrich say a partial government shutdown delayed the December JOLTS and January Jobs Report releases. > The partial government shutdown delayed the release of the December Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTS) and January Jobs Report data releases from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. - [Supporting source](https://hiringlab.indeed.com/2026/02/03/jobs-day-data-is-on-hold-and-the-labor-market-may-be-too/) ## Source-stated The authors report that Indeed’s Job Postings Index fell from 11.5% above pre-pandemic levels at the start of 2025 to 4.7% above them at year’s end. > the hiring demand slowed over the course of the year, from 11.5% above pre-pandemic levels on January 1 to just 4.7% on December 31. - [Supporting source](https://hiringlab.indeed.com/2026/02/03/jobs-day-data-is-on-hold-and-the-labor-market-may-be-too/) ## Source-stated The authors say the Indeed Wage Tracker showed advertised wage growth slowing during 2025. > showing that posted wage growth fell from 3.4% to 2.1% over the course of 2025. - [Supporting source](https://hiringlab.indeed.com/2026/02/03/jobs-day-data-is-on-hold-and-the-labor-market-may-be-too/) ## Source-stated The authors say workers’ confidence in finding work has weakened and that they are not changing jobs. > A cooling labor market has been weighing on workers’ confidence in their ability to find new or different work easily, and they aren’t changing jobs right now. - [Supporting source](https://hiringlab.indeed.com/2026/02/03/jobs-day-data-is-on-hold-and-the-labor-market-may-be-too/) ## Source-stated Stahle and Ullrich say the delayed report is expected to include revisions and methodological updates that may sharpen the view of labor-market trends. > Collectively, these changes and updates, when published, will offer an updated view of the health of the US labor market and may provide a sharper picture of where it is heading in 2026. - [Supporting source](https://hiringlab.indeed.com/2026/02/03/jobs-day-data-is-on-hold-and-the-labor-market-may-be-too/) ## Source-stated The authors say AI has productivity potential, while worker disengagement makes employer encouragement and training important. > AI still has enormous potential to help boost productivity, but many workers remain disengaged, and employer encouragement and training remain key to helping workers maximize the tools’ potential. - [Supporting source](https://hiringlab.indeed.com/2026/02/03/jobs-day-data-is-on-hold-and-the-labor-market-may-be-too/) ## Source-stated Stahle and Ullrich conclude that Indeed’s real-time data can offer insight into the labor market despite a cloudy outlook. > In the meantime, trends in Indeed’s real-time data, including the Indeed Job Posting Index and Indeed Wage Tracker, can provide insight into the current state of the US labor market. - [Supporting source](https://hiringlab.indeed.com/2026/02/03/jobs-day-data-is-on-hold-and-the-labor-market-may-be-too/) ## Source and contributor context Indeed Hiring Lab · Publisher The publisher is identified here. No individual author has been inferred. ## Source media Media retrieval status: unchecked. ## Terms and references Reference context selected by Escape Meridian; separate from source evidence. Entity mentions do not establish authorship, involvement or endorsement. ## Indeed Hiring Lab Indeed Hiring Lab is the economic research arm of the job site Indeed, publishing analyses of job postings, wages and hiring trends. - [Explore this context](/entities/indeed-hiring-lab) - [Reference](https://www.hiringlab.org/) - [Reference](https://www.hiringlab.org/feed/) ## TIME TIME is a news magazine publishing reporting on world affairs, business, technology and the workers behind digital services. - [Explore this context](/entities/time) - [Reference](https://time.com/) ## Editorial provenance Version 1. Publication ID: 79f6aa26-c3c1-371a-4494-1f53426892ab. Prepared by openai/gpt-6-luna; grounding review by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5. Source check: passed by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5 on 2026-11-08T10:03:43.880Z. This checks fidelity to the source, not whether its claims are independently true. Editorial selection: accept; reasons: bridge\_admitted\_by\_model. Observation: 77a545912244fdf8ae1d9deeebf41ec16a839f9e188c7ee5056ced67d8b2949b. Source text hash: 5a1553719e468cf1f1fb2c3c2e2edb74d91e012dd4bb4b43d33945021269fdf3. ## Revision and source-check history ### Version 1 — 2026-11-08T10:08:23.703Z On February 3, 2026, Cory Stahle and Laura Ullrich of Indeed Hiring Lab argue that the US labor market cooled in 2025, while a partial government shutdown delayed key government data. Indeed’s Job Postings Index (JPI), a measure of job postings, fell from 11.5% above pre-pandemic levels at the start of the year to 4.7% above them at year’s end; Indeed’s Wage Tracker also showed slower growth in advertised salaries. The authors say workers’ confidence in finding other work has weakened and that workers are not changing jobs. They describe the result as a low-hire, low-fire environment, with JPI largely flat in the first three weeks of January. The delayed Jobs Report is expected to include revisions and methodological updates, which the authors say may offer a sharper picture of labor-market trends; those data were not yet available in this account. Looking ahead, they argue that benefits and flexibility will remain important for recruiting and retention as wage growth slows. They also say AI has substantial potential to raise productivity, but many workers remain disengaged, making employer encouragement and training important to realizing that potential. The authors conclude that Indeed’s real-time data can offer insight while the outlook remains cloudy. ## Original source Indeed Hiring Lab · Article Original source date: Feb 3, 2026 (2026-02-03). Date basis: Date from the publisher’s archive: its article address or archive listing. Added to Escape Meridian: 2026-11-08T10:08:23.703Z. First observed: 2026-10-30T19:04:11.118Z. Retrieved: 2026-10-30T19:05:47.549Z. - [Jobs Day Data Is on Hold, and the Labor Market May Be Too](https://hiringlab.indeed.com/2026/02/03/jobs-day-data-is-on-hold-and-the-labor-market-may-be-too/) ## Limits Text as retrieved on October 30, 2026; originally published February 3, 2026. The delayed government data, revisions, and methodological updates had not yet been published in the account, so their effect on the labor-market picture is unknown. The source reports trends in Indeed’s data and does not establish how representative those measures are of the entire labor market. ## Open question How will the delayed revisions and methodological updates change the picture of US employment growth in 2025? ## Source-stated Cory Stahle and Laura Ullrich say a partial government shutdown delayed the December JOLTS and January Jobs Report releases. > The partial government shutdown delayed the release of the December Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTS) and January Jobs Report data releases from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. - [Supporting source](https://hiringlab.indeed.com/2026/02/03/jobs-day-data-is-on-hold-and-the-labor-market-may-be-too/) ## Source-stated The authors report that Indeed’s Job Postings Index fell from 11.5% above pre-pandemic levels at the start of 2025 to 4.7% above them at year’s end. > the hiring demand slowed over the course of the year, from 11.5% above pre-pandemic levels on January 1 to just 4.7% on December 31. - [Supporting source](https://hiringlab.indeed.com/2026/02/03/jobs-day-data-is-on-hold-and-the-labor-market-may-be-too/) ## Source-stated The authors say the Indeed Wage Tracker showed advertised wage growth slowing during 2025. > showing that posted wage growth fell from 3.4% to 2.1% over the course of 2025. - [Supporting source](https://hiringlab.indeed.com/2026/02/03/jobs-day-data-is-on-hold-and-the-labor-market-may-be-too/) ## Source-stated The authors say workers’ confidence in finding work has weakened and that they are not changing jobs. > A cooling labor market has been weighing on workers’ confidence in their ability to find new or different work easily, and they aren’t changing jobs right now. - [Supporting source](https://hiringlab.indeed.com/2026/02/03/jobs-day-data-is-on-hold-and-the-labor-market-may-be-too/) ## Source-stated Stahle and Ullrich say the delayed report is expected to include revisions and methodological updates that may sharpen the view of labor-market trends. > Collectively, these changes and updates, when published, will offer an updated view of the health of the US labor market and may provide a sharper picture of where it is heading in 2026. - [Supporting source](https://hiringlab.indeed.com/2026/02/03/jobs-day-data-is-on-hold-and-the-labor-market-may-be-too/) ## Source-stated The authors say AI has productivity potential, while worker disengagement makes employer encouragement and training important. > AI still has enormous potential to help boost productivity, but many workers remain disengaged, and employer encouragement and training remain key to helping workers maximize the tools’ potential. - [Supporting source](https://hiringlab.indeed.com/2026/02/03/jobs-day-data-is-on-hold-and-the-labor-market-may-be-too/) ## Source-stated Stahle and Ullrich conclude that Indeed’s real-time data can offer insight into the labor market despite a cloudy outlook. > In the meantime, trends in Indeed’s real-time data, including the Indeed Job Posting Index and Indeed Wage Tracker, can provide insight into the current state of the US labor market. - [Supporting source](https://hiringlab.indeed.com/2026/02/03/jobs-day-data-is-on-hold-and-the-labor-market-may-be-too/) ## Source and contributor context Indeed Hiring Lab · Publisher The publisher is identified here. No individual author has been inferred. ## Source media Media retrieval status: unchecked. ## Terms and references Reference context selected by Escape Meridian; separate from source evidence. Entity mentions do not establish authorship, involvement or endorsement. ## Indeed Hiring Lab Indeed Hiring Lab is the economic research arm of the job site Indeed, publishing analyses of job postings, wages and hiring trends. - [Explore this context](/entities/indeed-hiring-lab) - [Reference](https://www.hiringlab.org/) - [Reference](https://www.hiringlab.org/feed/) ## TIME TIME is a news magazine publishing reporting on world affairs, business, technology and the workers behind digital services. - [Explore this context](/entities/time) - [Reference](https://time.com/) ## Editorial provenance Version 1. Publication ID: 79f6aa26-c3c1-371a-4494-1f53426892ab. Prepared by openai/gpt-6-luna; grounding review by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5. Source check: passed by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5 on 2026-11-08T10:03:43.880Z. This checks fidelity to the source, not whether its claims are independently true. Editorial selection: accept; reasons: bridge\_admitted\_by\_model. Observation: 77a545912244fdf8ae1d9deeebf41ec16a839f9e188c7ee5056ced67d8b2949b. Source text hash: 5a1553719e468cf1f1fb2c3c2e2edb74d91e012dd4bb4b43d33945021269fdf3. ### passed — 2026-11-08T10:03:43.880Z — anthropic/claude-opus-5.5 Publication: 79f6aa26-c3c1-371a-4494-1f53426892ab attribution — pass: The reading correctly attributes the piece to Cory Stahle and Laura Ullrich of Indeed Hiring Lab. It keeps their claims attributed and identifies Jerome Powell's estimate as separate, although the reading omits that estimate. This is a single analytic piece, not a listing. > By Cory Stahle & Laura Ullrich summary — pass: The title, summary and question match the source: 2025 cooling shown in the JPI and Wage Tracker, the shutdown-delayed BLS data, a low-hire, low-fire environment, and the AI productivity and training point. Central terms are given plain context. The question follows from the source's note that revisions and the birth-death model update may change 2025 employment estimates. Small repairs would preserve more of the source's force: use 'enormous' rather than 'substantial' potential, and keep 'is likely to' for compensation. These do not distort the meaning. > JPI was essentially flat through the first three weeks of January, reflecting a continuation of the low-hire and low-fire environment that marked much of 2025. date — pass: February 3, 2026 matches originalPublished at day precision and the article's dateline. The modification timestamp is the same day. The reading treats the delayed reports as not yet published and draws no hindsight. The carousel titles are possible later page additions; the reading does not use them. It is a publisher page, not an archive copy, and the retrieval date is disclosed. > February 3, 2026 support — pass: Every claim is source-stated with matching excerpts: the delayed releases, the JPI decline from 11.5% to 4.7%, slowing posted wages, workers' weakened confidence, the expected revisions, AI training, and the value of real-time data. The limitations correctly state that the effect of the delayed data is unknown. They also state that representativeness is not established. No benefit or cost is invented. Minor softening: the source says compensation 'is likely to remain' important. > As wage growth slows, total compensation, including benefits packages and flexibility, is likely to remain both a powerful recruiting and retention tool. media — pass: No media candidates were supplied, and the reading selects none, so there is no media identity or relevance issue. ## Recorded references Explicit citations in public readings and public file attachments to this reading. Shared topics are not citations. Other artifact types need an explicit reference adapter. No public references recorded here yet. [Reference data (JSON)](/readings/370bc3b3693d6771201b81bbb9cddef122ff4fa49268a10cd92c385e755d076a/references.json) ## Corrections and challenges [Send a correction or an opposing source](https://escapemeridian.com/corrections/) [JSON record](https://escapemeridian.com/readings/cory-stahle-and-laura-ullrich-argue-in-indeed-hiring-lab-that-370bc3b3.json)