{"id":"762b6080002e37079d87a1d571662f1781613becc07fff1540bbf6f4d697d18b","title":"Federal Reserve Bank of New York authors compare the post-COVID labor share decline with past recessions","argument":"The Federal Reserve Bank of New York Liberty Street Economics post, published June 24, 2026, compares the post-COVID decline in the U.S. labor share with earlier recessions. The labor share is the fraction of economic output paid to workers as wages and salaries. The authors report that it fell below its pre-pandemic level and reached its lowest point in the post-war period.\n\nThe authors find that the labor share’s movement after the pandemic broadly resembles patterns in earlier recessions. Their analysis also attributes the decline mainly to changes within industries, rather than shifts in output between industries. 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The authors describe evidence from the periods they examine; it does not establish whether the labor share will rebound in a future expansion.","speaker":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of New York","roleAtSource":"Publisher"},"source":{"title":"The Post‑COVID Decline in the Labor Share","publisher":"Federal Reserve Bank of New York","format":"Article","url":"https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/06/the-post-covid-decline-in-the-labor-share/","publishedAt":"2026-06-24T11:00:00.000Z","dateBasis":"Date supplied by the publisher’s feed."},"evidence":[{"text":"The labor share is the fraction of U.S. economic output paid to workers as wages and salaries.","excerpt":"The labor share measures the fraction of economic output paid to workers as wages and salaries.","url":"https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/06/the-post-covid-decline-in-the-labor-share/","relationship":"Source-stated"},{"text":"The authors report that the labor share fell 1.6 percentage points below its pre-pandemic level and reached an all-time low in the post-war period.","excerpt":"ultimately falling 1.6 percentage points below its pre-pandemic level. The labor share now stands at an all-time low in the post-war period.","url":"https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/06/the-post-covid-decline-in-the-labor-share/","relationship":"Source-stated"},{"text":"The authors say the post-COVID labor share trajectory broadly follows cyclical patterns observed in earlier recessions.","excerpt":"the labor share’s trajectory post-COVID broadly follows the cyclical patterns observed in earlier recessions","url":"https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/06/the-post-covid-decline-in-the-labor-share/","relationship":"Source-stated"},{"text":"The authors attribute the decline primarily to changes within industries, rather than shifts in economic activity across sectors.","excerpt":"the decline in the labor share since COVID is driven primarily by within-industry changes rather than shifts in economic activity across sectors.","url":"https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/06/the-post-covid-decline-in-the-labor-share/","relationship":"Source-stated"},{"text":"The authors say a longer expansion would be needed to see whether the labor share rises again.","excerpt":"Judging by past recessions, we would need a longer expansion to see the labor share rise again.","url":"https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/06/the-post-covid-decline-in-the-labor-share/","relationship":"Source-stated"}],"sourceMedia":{"status":"unchecked","sourceUrl":"https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/06/the-post-covid-decline-in-the-labor-share/","checkedAt":null,"items":[]},"assumptions":[],"openQuestion":{"attribution":"Open question","text":"Will the labor share rise later in the expansion, as it did in some earlier cycles?"},"whatWouldChangeView":{"attribution":"Change condition not recorded","text":""},"editorialComparisons":[],"live":{"title":"Federal Reserve Bank of New York authors compare the post-COVID labor share decline with past recessions","summary":"The Federal Reserve Bank of New York Liberty Street Economics post, published June 24, 2026, compares the post-COVID decline in the U.S. labor share with earlier recessions. 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The labor share now stands at an all-time low in the post-war period.","support":"source-stated"},{"text":"The authors say the post-COVID labor share trajectory broadly follows cyclical patterns observed in earlier recessions.","excerpt":"the labor share’s trajectory post-COVID broadly follows the cyclical patterns observed in earlier recessions","support":"source-stated"},{"text":"The authors attribute the decline primarily to changes within industries, rather than shifts in economic activity across sectors.","excerpt":"the decline in the labor share since COVID is driven primarily by within-industry changes rather than shifts in economic activity across sectors.","support":"source-stated"},{"text":"The authors say a longer expansion would be needed to see whether the labor share rises again.","excerpt":"Judging by past recessions, we would need a longer expansion to see the labor share rise again.","support":"source-stated"}],"limitations":["Text as retrieved on October 23, 2026; originally published June 24, 2026.","The page is marked as edited after publication; the retrieved text may include later additions. 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They say sectoral reallocation—the movement of economic activity across industries—contributed little to the decline in the periods they examined.\n\nThe authors argue that these findings provide little evidence that the post-COVID decline will develop differently from past episodes. That is a forecast based on the patterns they studied, not an observed future outcome. They note that a longer expansion would be needed to see whether the labor share rises again, as it did in some earlier cycles. Whether that rebound occurs remains open.","topicIds":["work-and-business--jobs-and-occupations","job-displacement-and-creation"],"domain":"other","claimType":"attributed reading","limits":"Text as retrieved on October 23, 2026; originally published June 24, 2026. The page is marked as edited after publication; the retrieved text may include later additions. The reading uses the post’s stated findings and does not treat the later comments as part of the authors’ analysis. The authors describe evidence from the periods they examine; it does not establish whether the labor share will rebound in a future expansion.","speaker":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of New York","roleAtSource":"Publisher"},"source":{"title":"The Post‑COVID Decline in the Labor Share","publisher":"Federal Reserve Bank of New York","format":"Article","url":"https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/06/the-post-covid-decline-in-the-labor-share/","publishedAt":"2026-06-24T11:00:00.000Z","dateBasis":"Date supplied by the publisher’s feed."},"evidence":[{"text":"The labor share is the fraction of U.S. economic output paid to workers as wages and salaries.","excerpt":"The labor share measures the fraction of economic output paid to workers as wages and salaries.","url":"https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/06/the-post-covid-decline-in-the-labor-share/","relationship":"Source-stated"},{"text":"The authors report that the labor share fell 1.6 percentage points below its pre-pandemic level and reached an all-time low in the post-war period.","excerpt":"ultimately falling 1.6 percentage points below its pre-pandemic level. The labor share now stands at an all-time low in the post-war period.","url":"https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/06/the-post-covid-decline-in-the-labor-share/","relationship":"Source-stated"},{"text":"The authors say the post-COVID labor share trajectory broadly follows cyclical patterns observed in earlier recessions.","excerpt":"the labor share’s trajectory post-COVID broadly follows the cyclical patterns observed in earlier recessions","url":"https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/06/the-post-covid-decline-in-the-labor-share/","relationship":"Source-stated"},{"text":"The authors attribute the decline primarily to changes within industries, rather than shifts in economic activity across sectors.","excerpt":"the decline in the labor share since COVID is driven primarily by within-industry changes rather than shifts in economic activity across sectors.","url":"https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/06/the-post-covid-decline-in-the-labor-share/","relationship":"Source-stated"},{"text":"The authors say a longer expansion would be needed to see whether the labor share rises again.","excerpt":"Judging by past recessions, we would need a longer expansion to see the labor share rise again.","url":"https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/06/the-post-covid-decline-in-the-labor-share/","relationship":"Source-stated"}],"sourceMedia":{"status":"unchecked","sourceUrl":"https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/06/the-post-covid-decline-in-the-labor-share/","checkedAt":null,"items":[]},"assumptions":[],"openQuestion":{"attribution":"Open question","text":"Will the labor share rise later in the expansion, as it did in some earlier cycles?"},"whatWouldChangeView":{"attribution":"Change condition not recorded","text":""},"editorialComparisons":[],"live":{"title":"Federal Reserve Bank of New York authors compare the post-COVID labor share decline with past recessions","summary":"The Federal Reserve Bank of New York Liberty Street Economics post, published June 24, 2026, compares the post-COVID decline in the U.S. labor share with earlier recessions. The labor share is the fraction of economic output paid to workers as wages and salaries. The authors report that it fell below its pre-pandemic level and reached its lowest point in the post-war period.\n\nThe authors find that the labor share’s movement after the pandemic broadly resembles patterns in earlier recessions. Their analysis also attributes the decline mainly to changes within industries, rather than shifts in output between industries. They say sectoral reallocation—the movement of economic activity across industries—contributed little to the decline in the periods they examined.\n\nThe authors argue that these findings provide little evidence that the post-COVID decline will develop differently from past episodes. That is a forecast based on the patterns they studied, not an observed future outcome. They note that a longer expansion would be needed to see whether the labor share rises again, as it did in some earlier cycles. 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The labor share now stands at an all-time low in the post-war period.","support":"source-stated"},{"text":"The authors say the post-COVID labor share trajectory broadly follows cyclical patterns observed in earlier recessions.","excerpt":"the labor share’s trajectory post-COVID broadly follows the cyclical patterns observed in earlier recessions","support":"source-stated"},{"text":"The authors attribute the decline primarily to changes within industries, rather than shifts in economic activity across sectors.","excerpt":"the decline in the labor share since COVID is driven primarily by within-industry changes rather than shifts in economic activity across sectors.","support":"source-stated"},{"text":"The authors say a longer expansion would be needed to see whether the labor share rises again.","excerpt":"Judging by past recessions, we would need a longer expansion to see the labor share rise again.","support":"source-stated"}],"limitations":["Text as retrieved on October 23, 2026; originally published June 24, 2026.","The page is marked as edited after publication; the retrieved text may include later additions. 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The named byline and the authors' roles match the source.","excerpt":"Richard Audoly, Miles Guerin, Srinidhi Narayanan, and Rachel Schuh"},{"dimension":"summary","status":"pass","explanation":"The title, summary and question accurately reflect the post's comparison of the post-COVID labor share decline with earlier recessions and its within-industry finding. The labor share and sectoral reallocation are defined in plain language. The question follows directly from the authors' remark about needing a longer expansion. The reading frames the conclusion as the authors' assessment and does not present it as an outcome.","excerpt":"we compare the dynamics of the labor share post-COVID to earlier periods to understand whether the recent decline represents the continuation of a trend or a new and distinct phenomenon"},{"dimension":"date","status":"pass","explanation":"June 24, 2026 matches originalPublished and the source dateline. The page was edited after publication (dateModified September 4, 2026). However, the reading relies only on core body passages that are plainly part of the original post, and it excludes the reader comments. Nothing is presented as known after publication. The authors' forward-looking remark is attributed to them. This is a publisher page, so no archive-copy disclosure is required.","excerpt":"June 24, 2026\nThe Post‑COVID Decline in the Labor Share"},{"dimension":"support","status":"pass","explanation":"Each claim is supported by a verbatim excerpt from the body of the post, which is plainly original content rather than a later addition. The statement that reallocation contributed little matches the decomposition finding. The reading adds no unsupported implications about benefits or costs.","excerpt":"Across all three recession periods, we find that movements in output across sectors contribute nothing or very little to the change in the aggregate payroll share."},{"dimension":"media","status":"pass","explanation":"No media is selected, and no verified media candidates were supplied, so selecting none is consistent with the evidence.","excerpt":null}],"createdAt":"2026-10-30T06:53:53.959Z","model":"anthropic/claude-opus-5.5"}],"correctionUrl":"https://escapemeridian.com/corrections/"}