# Federal Reserve Bank of New York authors compare the post-COVID labor share decline with past recessions [Canonical reading](https://escapemeridian.com/readings/federal-reserve-bank-of-new-york-authors-compare-the-post-covid-762b6080) The Federal Reserve Bank of New York Liberty Street Economics post, published June 24, 2026, compares the post-COVID decline in the U.S. labor share with earlier recessions. The labor share is the fraction of economic output paid to workers as wages and salaries. The authors report that it fell below its pre-pandemic level and reached its lowest point in the post-war period. The authors find that the labor share’s movement after the pandemic broadly resembles patterns in earlier recessions. Their analysis also attributes the decline mainly to changes within industries, rather than shifts in output between industries. They say sectoral reallocation—the movement of economic activity across industries—contributed little to the decline in the periods they examined. The authors argue that these findings provide little evidence that the post-COVID decline will develop differently from past episodes. That is a forecast based on the patterns they studied, not an observed future outcome. They note that a longer expansion would be needed to see whether the labor share rises again, as it did in some earlier cycles. Whether that rebound occurs remains open. Headline and summary by Escape Meridian, prepared by Luna from the attributed source. A source check is not independent confirmation of the source’s claims. ## Original source Federal Reserve Bank of New York · Article Original source date: Jun 24, 2026 (2026-06-24T11:00:00.000Z). Date basis: Date supplied by the publisher’s feed. Added to Escape Meridian: 2026-10-30T06:53:55.119Z. First observed: 2026-10-23T16:34:13.865Z. Retrieved: 2026-10-23T16:35:51.679Z. - [The Post‑COVID Decline in the Labor Share](https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/06/the-post-covid-decline-in-the-labor-share/) ## Limits Text as retrieved on October 23, 2026; originally published June 24, 2026. The page is marked as edited after publication; the retrieved text may include later additions. The reading uses the post’s stated findings and does not treat the later comments as part of the authors’ analysis. The authors describe evidence from the periods they examine; it does not establish whether the labor share will rebound in a future expansion. ## Open question Will the labor share rise later in the expansion, as it did in some earlier cycles? ## Source-stated The labor share is the fraction of U.S. economic output paid to workers as wages and salaries. > The labor share measures the fraction of economic output paid to workers as wages and salaries. - [Supporting source](https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/06/the-post-covid-decline-in-the-labor-share/) ## Source-stated The authors report that the labor share fell 1.6 percentage points below its pre-pandemic level and reached an all-time low in the post-war period. > ultimately falling 1.6 percentage points below its pre-pandemic level. The labor share now stands at an all-time low in the post-war period. - [Supporting source](https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/06/the-post-covid-decline-in-the-labor-share/) ## Source-stated The authors say the post-COVID labor share trajectory broadly follows cyclical patterns observed in earlier recessions. > the labor share’s trajectory post-COVID broadly follows the cyclical patterns observed in earlier recessions - [Supporting source](https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/06/the-post-covid-decline-in-the-labor-share/) ## Source-stated The authors attribute the decline primarily to changes within industries, rather than shifts in economic activity across sectors. > the decline in the labor share since COVID is driven primarily by within-industry changes rather than shifts in economic activity across sectors. - [Supporting source](https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/06/the-post-covid-decline-in-the-labor-share/) ## Source-stated The authors say a longer expansion would be needed to see whether the labor share rises again. > Judging by past recessions, we would need a longer expansion to see the labor share rise again. - [Supporting source](https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/06/the-post-covid-decline-in-the-labor-share/) ## Source and contributor context Federal Reserve Bank of New York · Publisher The publisher is identified here. No individual author has been inferred. ## Source media Media retrieval status: unchecked. ## Terms and references Reference context selected by Escape Meridian; separate from source evidence. Entity mentions do not establish authorship, involvement or endorsement. ## Editorial provenance Version 1. Publication ID: 3bca663c-e4bf-b988-c7e1-6f13a058d3a1. Prepared by openai/gpt-6-luna; grounding review by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5. Source check: passed by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5 on 2026-10-30T06:53:53.959Z. This checks fidelity to the source, not whether its claims are independently true. Editorial selection: accept; reasons: bridge\_screen. Observation: 68115b5ac0e848372e7a8791fec06243f9ca5e1c012077236fd5ebb540170015. Source text hash: f9ca3684b3160cb7d998734d5fca72b1b509bfdc5abbb74af85758a2b8c0e222. ## Revision and source-check history ### Version 1 — 2026-10-30T06:53:55.119Z The Federal Reserve Bank of New York Liberty Street Economics post, published June 24, 2026, compares the post-COVID decline in the U.S. labor share with earlier recessions. The labor share is the fraction of economic output paid to workers as wages and salaries. The authors report that it fell below its pre-pandemic level and reached its lowest point in the post-war period. The authors find that the labor share’s movement after the pandemic broadly resembles patterns in earlier recessions. Their analysis also attributes the decline mainly to changes within industries, rather than shifts in output between industries. They say sectoral reallocation—the movement of economic activity across industries—contributed little to the decline in the periods they examined. The authors argue that these findings provide little evidence that the post-COVID decline will develop differently from past episodes. That is a forecast based on the patterns they studied, not an observed future outcome. They note that a longer expansion would be needed to see whether the labor share rises again, as it did in some earlier cycles. Whether that rebound occurs remains open. ## Original source Federal Reserve Bank of New York · Article Original source date: Jun 24, 2026 (2026-06-24T11:00:00.000Z). Date basis: Date supplied by the publisher’s feed. Added to Escape Meridian: 2026-10-30T06:53:55.119Z. First observed: 2026-10-23T16:34:13.865Z. Retrieved: 2026-10-23T16:35:51.679Z. - [The Post‑COVID Decline in the Labor Share](https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/06/the-post-covid-decline-in-the-labor-share/) ## Limits Text as retrieved on October 23, 2026; originally published June 24, 2026. The page is marked as edited after publication; the retrieved text may include later additions. The reading uses the post’s stated findings and does not treat the later comments as part of the authors’ analysis. The authors describe evidence from the periods they examine; it does not establish whether the labor share will rebound in a future expansion. ## Open question Will the labor share rise later in the expansion, as it did in some earlier cycles? ## Source-stated The labor share is the fraction of U.S. economic output paid to workers as wages and salaries. > The labor share measures the fraction of economic output paid to workers as wages and salaries. - [Supporting source](https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/06/the-post-covid-decline-in-the-labor-share/) ## Source-stated The authors report that the labor share fell 1.6 percentage points below its pre-pandemic level and reached an all-time low in the post-war period. > ultimately falling 1.6 percentage points below its pre-pandemic level. The labor share now stands at an all-time low in the post-war period. - [Supporting source](https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/06/the-post-covid-decline-in-the-labor-share/) ## Source-stated The authors say the post-COVID labor share trajectory broadly follows cyclical patterns observed in earlier recessions. > the labor share’s trajectory post-COVID broadly follows the cyclical patterns observed in earlier recessions - [Supporting source](https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/06/the-post-covid-decline-in-the-labor-share/) ## Source-stated The authors attribute the decline primarily to changes within industries, rather than shifts in economic activity across sectors. > the decline in the labor share since COVID is driven primarily by within-industry changes rather than shifts in economic activity across sectors. - [Supporting source](https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/06/the-post-covid-decline-in-the-labor-share/) ## Source-stated The authors say a longer expansion would be needed to see whether the labor share rises again. > Judging by past recessions, we would need a longer expansion to see the labor share rise again. - [Supporting source](https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/06/the-post-covid-decline-in-the-labor-share/) ## Source and contributor context Federal Reserve Bank of New York · Publisher The publisher is identified here. No individual author has been inferred. ## Source media Media retrieval status: unchecked. ## Terms and references Reference context selected by Escape Meridian; separate from source evidence. Entity mentions do not establish authorship, involvement or endorsement. ## Editorial provenance Version 1. Publication ID: 3bca663c-e4bf-b988-c7e1-6f13a058d3a1. Prepared by openai/gpt-6-luna; grounding review by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5. Source check: passed by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5 on 2026-10-30T06:53:53.959Z. This checks fidelity to the source, not whether its claims are independently true. Editorial selection: accept; reasons: bridge\_screen. Observation: 68115b5ac0e848372e7a8791fec06243f9ca5e1c012077236fd5ebb540170015. Source text hash: f9ca3684b3160cb7d998734d5fca72b1b509bfdc5abbb74af85758a2b8c0e222. ### passed — 2026-10-30T06:53:53.959Z — anthropic/claude-opus-5.5 Publication: 3bca663c-e4bf-b988-c7e1-6f13a058d3a1 attribution — pass: The reading correctly attributes the post to Federal Reserve Bank of New York authors on Liberty Street Economics. The named byline and the authors' roles match the source. > Richard Audoly, Miles Guerin, Srinidhi Narayanan, and Rachel Schuh summary — pass: The title, summary and question accurately reflect the post's comparison of the post-COVID labor share decline with earlier recessions and its within-industry finding. The labor share and sectoral reallocation are defined in plain language. The question follows directly from the authors' remark about needing a longer expansion. The reading frames the conclusion as the authors' assessment and does not present it as an outcome. > we compare the dynamics of the labor share post-COVID to earlier periods to understand whether the recent decline represents the continuation of a trend or a new and distinct phenomenon date — pass: June 24, 2026 matches originalPublished and the source dateline. The page was edited after publication (dateModified September 4, 2026). However, the reading relies only on core body passages that are plainly part of the original post, and it excludes the reader comments. Nothing is presented as known after publication. The authors' forward-looking remark is attributed to them. This is a publisher page, so no archive-copy disclosure is required. > June 24, 2026 The Post‑COVID Decline in the Labor Share support — pass: Each claim is supported by a verbatim excerpt from the body of the post, which is plainly original content rather than a later addition. The statement that reallocation contributed little matches the decomposition finding. The reading adds no unsupported implications about benefits or costs. > Across all three recession periods, we find that movements in output across sectors contribute nothing or very little to the change in the aggregate payroll share. media — pass: No media is selected, and no verified media candidates were supplied, so selecting none is consistent with the evidence. ## Recorded references Explicit citations in public readings and public file attachments to this reading. Shared topics are not citations. Other artifact types need an explicit reference adapter. No public references recorded here yet. [Reference data (JSON)](/readings/762b6080002e37079d87a1d571662f1781613becc07fff1540bbf6f4d697d18b/references.json) ## Corrections and challenges [Send a correction or an opposing source](https://escapemeridian.com/corrections/) [JSON record](https://escapemeridian.com/readings/federal-reserve-bank-of-new-york-authors-compare-the-post-covid-762b6080.json)