# Hunter L. Clark and Gregory Simitian argue in Liberty Street Economics that trade is shifting through ASEAN [Canonical reading](https://escapemeridian.com/readings/hunter-l-clark-and-gregory-simitian-argue-in-liberty-street-fee7edbf) On May 4, 2026, Hunter L. Clark and Gregory Simitian argue in Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Liberty Street Economics that trade between the United States and China is increasingly being rerouted through ASEAN. They distinguish shifts in actual trade flows from tariff-driven statistical distortions, which they say obscure the headline balances. Their examples include laptops and tablets assembled in ASEAN while still using Chinese components, and networking equipment moving through the region for data centers. The authors connect these patterns to trade policy uncertainty, geopolitical tensions and demand from AI infrastructure. They conclude that ASEAN is absorbing and rerouting flows that previously moved directly from China to the United States, while the full picture remains more complicated than a decline in direct trade. They say tariff tensions and the outlook for the AI industry will be critical drivers of supply-chain reorientation. How much of the measured shift reflects changes in production routes, and how much reflects distorted trade statistics, remains unquantified in the post. Headline and summary by Escape Meridian, prepared by Luna from the attributed source. A source check is not independent confirmation of the source’s claims. ## Original source Federal Reserve Bank of New York · Article Original source date: May 4, 2026 (2026-05-04T11:00:00.000Z). Date basis: Date supplied by the publisher’s feed. Added to Escape Meridian: 2026-11-07T04:23:23.669Z. First observed: 2026-10-30T18:22:04.145Z. Retrieved: 2026-10-30T18:23:57.159Z. - [In What Ways Has U.S. Trade with China Changed?](https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/05/in-what-ways-has-u-s-trade-with-china-changed/) ## Limits Text as retrieved on October 30, 2026; originally published May 4, 2026. The authors say some changes in reported trade balances reflect tariff-minimization strategies, but the post does not quantify how much of the overall shift those distortions explain. The post describes some AI infrastructure investment estimates as forecasts, not observed spending outcomes. ## Open question How much of the measured shift in trade reflects changes in production routes, rather than tariff-driven distortions in reported imports? ## Source-stated Clark and Simitian argue that trade between the United States and China increasingly moved through ASEAN, while warning that tariff-driven distortions complicate the headline figures. > Taken as a whole, these charts provide evidence that, last year, China’s trade with the U.S. increasingly rerouted—one way or another—through ASEAN. - [Supporting source](https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/05/in-what-ways-has-u-s-trade-with-china-changed/) ## Source-stated The authors report that the U.S. deficit with China in laptops and tablets fell as its deficit with ASEAN in the same category rose. > the U.S. trade deficit with ASEAN in laptops and tablets surged by $21 billion, accounting for half of the overall $43 billion increase in the deficit within HS 84. Conversely, the U.S. deficit with China in this subcategory has decreased by $24 billion - [Supporting source](https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/05/in-what-ways-has-u-s-trade-with-china-changed/) ## Source-stated The authors say Chinese inputs continued to enter ASEAN supply chains, including components used in high-tech goods. > These inputs, like processors, memories, displays, parts of transmission devices, and integrated circuits (HS 854231, 854232, 852491, 851779, 854239), make up $47 billion of the previously mentioned nearly $70 billion increase in China’s trade surplus with ASEAN in HS 85. - [Supporting source](https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/05/in-what-ways-has-u-s-trade-with-china-changed/) ## Source-stated Clark and Simitian conclude that ASEAN is absorbing and rerouting flows that previously moved directly from China to the United States. > Overall, the picture points to one in which trade policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions are driving geographical diversification, with ASEAN both absorbing and rerouting flows that previously moved directly from China to the U.S. - [Supporting source](https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/05/in-what-ways-has-u-s-trade-with-china-changed/) ## Source and contributor context Federal Reserve Bank of New York · Publisher The publisher is identified here. No individual author has been inferred. ## Source media Media retrieval status: unchecked. ## Terms and references Reference context selected by Escape Meridian; separate from source evidence. Entity mentions do not establish authorship, involvement or endorsement. ## Editorial provenance Version 1. Publication ID: 194a5eb7-8794-821f-b699-7e4f363b9137. Prepared by openai/gpt-6-luna; grounding review by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5. Source check: uncertain by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5 on 2026-11-07T04:18:25.288Z. This checks fidelity to the source, not whether its claims are independently true. Editorial selection: accept; reasons: bridge\_admitted\_by\_model. Observation: f06394a0670aea4477f0efc3169c786fc7854a5c526bf9a7a787b18e776abd8d. Source text hash: 58b961b76089a0c3dd2a7d0af62c8bb0a1b65160f8ac2c5b1436eb576396bd98. ## Revision and source-check history ### Version 1 — 2026-11-07T04:23:23.669Z On May 4, 2026, Hunter L. Clark and Gregory Simitian argue in Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Liberty Street Economics that trade between the United States and China is increasingly being rerouted through ASEAN. They distinguish shifts in actual trade flows from tariff-driven statistical distortions, which they say obscure the headline balances. Their examples include laptops and tablets assembled in ASEAN while still using Chinese components, and networking equipment moving through the region for data centers. The authors connect these patterns to trade policy uncertainty, geopolitical tensions and demand from AI infrastructure. They conclude that ASEAN is absorbing and rerouting flows that previously moved directly from China to the United States, while the full picture remains more complicated than a decline in direct trade. They say tariff tensions and the outlook for the AI industry will be critical drivers of supply-chain reorientation. How much of the measured shift reflects changes in production routes, and how much reflects distorted trade statistics, remains unquantified in the post. ## Original source Federal Reserve Bank of New York · Article Original source date: May 4, 2026 (2026-05-04T11:00:00.000Z). Date basis: Date supplied by the publisher’s feed. Added to Escape Meridian: 2026-11-07T04:23:23.669Z. First observed: 2026-10-30T18:22:04.145Z. Retrieved: 2026-10-30T18:23:57.159Z. - [In What Ways Has U.S. Trade with China Changed?](https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/05/in-what-ways-has-u-s-trade-with-china-changed/) ## Limits Text as retrieved on October 30, 2026; originally published May 4, 2026. The authors say some changes in reported trade balances reflect tariff-minimization strategies, but the post does not quantify how much of the overall shift those distortions explain. The post describes some AI infrastructure investment estimates as forecasts, not observed spending outcomes. ## Open question How much of the measured shift in trade reflects changes in production routes, rather than tariff-driven distortions in reported imports? ## Source-stated Clark and Simitian argue that trade between the United States and China increasingly moved through ASEAN, while warning that tariff-driven distortions complicate the headline figures. > Taken as a whole, these charts provide evidence that, last year, China’s trade with the U.S. increasingly rerouted—one way or another—through ASEAN. - [Supporting source](https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/05/in-what-ways-has-u-s-trade-with-china-changed/) ## Source-stated The authors report that the U.S. deficit with China in laptops and tablets fell as its deficit with ASEAN in the same category rose. > the U.S. trade deficit with ASEAN in laptops and tablets surged by $21 billion, accounting for half of the overall $43 billion increase in the deficit within HS 84. Conversely, the U.S. deficit with China in this subcategory has decreased by $24 billion - [Supporting source](https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/05/in-what-ways-has-u-s-trade-with-china-changed/) ## Source-stated The authors say Chinese inputs continued to enter ASEAN supply chains, including components used in high-tech goods. > These inputs, like processors, memories, displays, parts of transmission devices, and integrated circuits (HS 854231, 854232, 852491, 851779, 854239), make up $47 billion of the previously mentioned nearly $70 billion increase in China’s trade surplus with ASEAN in HS 85. - [Supporting source](https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/05/in-what-ways-has-u-s-trade-with-china-changed/) ## Source-stated Clark and Simitian conclude that ASEAN is absorbing and rerouting flows that previously moved directly from China to the United States. > Overall, the picture points to one in which trade policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions are driving geographical diversification, with ASEAN both absorbing and rerouting flows that previously moved directly from China to the U.S. - [Supporting source](https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/05/in-what-ways-has-u-s-trade-with-china-changed/) ## Source and contributor context Federal Reserve Bank of New York · Publisher The publisher is identified here. No individual author has been inferred. ## Source media Media retrieval status: unchecked. ## Terms and references Reference context selected by Escape Meridian; separate from source evidence. Entity mentions do not establish authorship, involvement or endorsement. ## Editorial provenance Version 1. Publication ID: 194a5eb7-8794-821f-b699-7e4f363b9137. Prepared by openai/gpt-6-luna; grounding review by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5. Source check: uncertain by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5 on 2026-11-07T04:18:25.288Z. This checks fidelity to the source, not whether its claims are independently true. Editorial selection: accept; reasons: bridge\_admitted\_by\_model. Observation: f06394a0670aea4477f0efc3169c786fc7854a5c526bf9a7a787b18e776abd8d. Source text hash: 58b961b76089a0c3dd2a7d0af62c8bb0a1b65160f8ac2c5b1436eb576396bd98. ### uncertain — 2026-11-07T04:18:25.288Z — anthropic/claude-opus-5.5 Publication: 194a5eb7-8794-821f-b699-7e4f363b9137 attribution — pass: This is a single Liberty Street Economics post by Hunter L. Clark and Gregory Simitian of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The reading attributes the argument to the authors throughout, not to the Fed or to Escape Meridian. The related-story links and reader comments are not used. > Hunter L. Clark and Gregory Simitian summary — uncertain: The summary faithfully reports the rerouting thesis, the tariff distortions, the laptop and networking examples, the AI-infrastructure link and the hedged conclusion. However, ASEAN is the central actor and is never spelled out (Association of Southeast Asian Nations), and definitions is empty, so a non-specialist reader may not know what it means. Smallest repair: expand ASEAN on first use or add it to the term library. The question follows from the source's own caveat. > countries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) date — pass: May 4, 2026 matches originalPublished and the dateline, at day precision. The page was edited after publication (dateModified June 2, 2026). The cited passages are core article body rather than plainly later additions. The reader comments are undated and are not used. The reading uses no hindsight framing and presents the AI spending estimate as a forecast. This is a publisher page, so no archive disclosure is needed. > May 4, 2026 In What Ways Has U.S. Trade with China Changed? support — pass: Each claim is source-stated and matches its excerpt. The laptop and tablet figures, the $47 billion in Chinese inputs, the conclusion about ASEAN absorbing and rerouting flows, and the critical-drivers sentence all appear in the article body. The limitation that the post does not quantify the share of the shift explained by distortions is fair: the post calls part of the change artificial but gives no overall share. The cited text is article body, so the later edit is not a concern here. > part of the change last year in the U.S.’s trade balances with China and ASEAN appears to have been “artificial” media — pass: No media was selected, and no verified candidates were supplied. The source link itself is the access point. ## Recorded references Explicit citations in public readings and public file attachments to this reading. Shared topics are not citations. Other artifact types need an explicit reference adapter. No public references recorded here yet. [Reference data (JSON)](/readings/fee7edbf300190a99274cafdea12e9cf245c87f68b6b9f180ec264daf33f0978/references.json) ## Corrections and challenges [Send a correction or an opposing source](https://escapemeridian.com/corrections/) [JSON record](https://escapemeridian.com/readings/hunter-l-clark-and-gregory-simitian-argue-in-liberty-street-fee7edbf.json)