# Laura Ullrich argues in Indeed Hiring Lab that the jobs report needs an asterisk [Canonical reading](https://escapemeridian.com/readings/laura-ullrich-argues-in-indeed-hiring-lab-that-the-jobs-report-a030494e) Indeed Hiring Lab published Laura Ullrich’s analysis on December 16, 2025. Ullrich argues that the October–November jobs report needs an asterisk: the government shutdown disrupted how the data were collected, and October has no household-survey data, including unemployment or labor-force figures. The available figures show job growth concentrated in private education and health services. Ullrich says that without this sector, employment would have fallen so far in 2025, while workers in other sectors struggle to find suitable jobs and some turn to temporary or gig work. She also points to recurring declines in manufacturing, transportation and warehousing, and financial activities, linking at least some weakness to tariff policy and possibly more to uncertainty around it. Ullrich warns that outdated data collection may mean recent job creation has been overstated. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is reportedly due to update its “life-death model” in February 2026; until the new methodology and revised estimates are available, she says, the figures warrant caution. Her conclusion is sobering: growth may remain weak and concentrated, or later revisions may show that jobs were lost in many months. The available report leaves the true scale of job growth uncertain. Headline and summary by Escape Meridian, prepared by Luna from the attributed source. A source check is not independent confirmation of the source’s claims. ## Original source Indeed Hiring Lab · Article Original source date: Dec 16, 2025 (2025-12-16). Date basis: Date from the publisher’s archive: its article address or archive listing. Added to Escape Meridian: 2026-11-09T14:28:23.723Z. First observed: 2026-10-30T20:00:42.331Z. Retrieved: 2026-10-30T21:13:47.155Z. - [October & November 2025 Jobs Report: Put an Asterisk on It](https://hiringlab.indeed.com/2025/12/16/october-november-2025-jobs-report-put-an-asterisk-on-it/) ## Limits Text as retrieved on October 30, 2026; originally published December 16, 2025. The report lacks October household-survey data, so October unemployment and labor-force figures are unavailable; Ullrich also says both months’ methodology differed from normal because of the shutdown. Ullrich presents tariff policy as a possible explanation for some employment weakness and uncertainty around it as a possible larger factor, not as a measured cause. ## Open question How much would the updated methodology and revised payroll estimates change the picture of job growth described here? ## Source-stated Laura Ullrich says the October–November release lacked October household-survey data and used methods affected by the shutdown. > This means no unemployment or labor force data will ever be released for the month, a first for the BLS. And the methodology used for both months was different from “normal” as a result of the government shutdown. - [Supporting source](https://hiringlab.indeed.com/2025/12/16/october-november-2025-jobs-report-put-an-asterisk-on-it/) ## Source-stated Ullrich says private education and health services accounted for more jobs than the economy’s net gain so far in 2025. > The economy as a whole has added 499,000 jobs on net since the start of the year — and 630,000 of them have come from the private education and health services sector. - [Supporting source](https://hiringlab.indeed.com/2025/12/16/october-november-2025-jobs-report-put-an-asterisk-on-it/) ## Source-stated Ullrich says workers outside the sectors generating job growth may be turning to temporary or gig work. > Sidelined workers are showing signs of turning to temporary or gig work to get by - [Supporting source](https://hiringlab.indeed.com/2025/12/16/october-november-2025-jobs-report-put-an-asterisk-on-it/) ## Source-stated Ullrich says tariff policy may account for some of the weakness in several industries, and uncertainty around it potentially more. > It is difficult not to attribute at least some of this weakness to tariff policy, and potentially even more to the uncertainty surrounding it. - [Supporting source](https://hiringlab.indeed.com/2025/12/16/october-november-2025-jobs-report-put-an-asterisk-on-it/) ## Source-stated Ullrich says outdated data collection may mean recent job creation numbers are overstated, and calls for guarded interpretation until updated estimates are available. > Outdated data collection methods have been explicitly called into question by Fed Chair Jerome Powell lately, raising fears that recent job creation numbers could be overstated by around 60,000 per month. - [Supporting source](https://hiringlab.indeed.com/2025/12/16/october-november-2025-jobs-report-put-an-asterisk-on-it/) ## Source-stated Ullrich says the labor market may have lost jobs in many months, with future revisions potentially showing a bleaker picture. > it is also possible that we have lost jobs in many of the months this year, and future revisions will present an even bleaker view. - [Supporting source](https://hiringlab.indeed.com/2025/12/16/october-november-2025-jobs-report-put-an-asterisk-on-it/) ## Source and contributor context Indeed Hiring Lab · Publisher The publisher is identified here. No individual author has been inferred. ## Source media Media retrieval status: unchecked. ## Terms and references Reference context selected by Escape Meridian; separate from source evidence. Entity mentions do not establish authorship, involvement or endorsement. ## Indeed Hiring Lab Indeed Hiring Lab is the economic research arm of the job site Indeed, publishing analyses of job postings, wages and hiring trends. - [Explore this context](/entities/indeed-hiring-lab) - [Reference](https://www.hiringlab.org/) - [Reference](https://www.hiringlab.org/feed/) ## U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes US data on employment, pay, prices and productivity. - [Explore this context](/entities/us-bls) - [Reference](https://www.bls.gov/) ## Editorial provenance Version 1. Publication ID: 39b533c5-1d98-1b52-ba1a-543a745f8482. Prepared by openai/gpt-6-luna; grounding review by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5. Source check: uncertain by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5 on 2026-11-09T14:24:07.702Z. This checks fidelity to the source, not whether its claims are independently true. Editorial selection: accept; reasons: bridge\_admitted\_by\_model. Observation: 3c4780dd1596c932d80916257241e7c586c8faaa3d850f1efd65cbe7cb592c3b. Source text hash: d1316d33e00dc9c8066ce1fc48965ee6ec6e353cb0859873c8b05a35844a9cc5. ## Revision and source-check history ### Version 1 — 2026-11-09T14:28:23.723Z Indeed Hiring Lab published Laura Ullrich’s analysis on December 16, 2025. Ullrich argues that the October–November jobs report needs an asterisk: the government shutdown disrupted how the data were collected, and October has no household-survey data, including unemployment or labor-force figures. The available figures show job growth concentrated in private education and health services. Ullrich says that without this sector, employment would have fallen so far in 2025, while workers in other sectors struggle to find suitable jobs and some turn to temporary or gig work. She also points to recurring declines in manufacturing, transportation and warehousing, and financial activities, linking at least some weakness to tariff policy and possibly more to uncertainty around it. Ullrich warns that outdated data collection may mean recent job creation has been overstated. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is reportedly due to update its “life-death model” in February 2026; until the new methodology and revised estimates are available, she says, the figures warrant caution. Her conclusion is sobering: growth may remain weak and concentrated, or later revisions may show that jobs were lost in many months. The available report leaves the true scale of job growth uncertain. ## Original source Indeed Hiring Lab · Article Original source date: Dec 16, 2025 (2025-12-16). Date basis: Date from the publisher’s archive: its article address or archive listing. Added to Escape Meridian: 2026-11-09T14:28:23.723Z. First observed: 2026-10-30T20:00:42.331Z. Retrieved: 2026-10-30T21:13:47.155Z. - [October & November 2025 Jobs Report: Put an Asterisk on It](https://hiringlab.indeed.com/2025/12/16/october-november-2025-jobs-report-put-an-asterisk-on-it/) ## Limits Text as retrieved on October 30, 2026; originally published December 16, 2025. The report lacks October household-survey data, so October unemployment and labor-force figures are unavailable; Ullrich also says both months’ methodology differed from normal because of the shutdown. Ullrich presents tariff policy as a possible explanation for some employment weakness and uncertainty around it as a possible larger factor, not as a measured cause. ## Open question How much would the updated methodology and revised payroll estimates change the picture of job growth described here? ## Source-stated Laura Ullrich says the October–November release lacked October household-survey data and used methods affected by the shutdown. > This means no unemployment or labor force data will ever be released for the month, a first for the BLS. And the methodology used for both months was different from “normal” as a result of the government shutdown. - [Supporting source](https://hiringlab.indeed.com/2025/12/16/october-november-2025-jobs-report-put-an-asterisk-on-it/) ## Source-stated Ullrich says private education and health services accounted for more jobs than the economy’s net gain so far in 2025. > The economy as a whole has added 499,000 jobs on net since the start of the year — and 630,000 of them have come from the private education and health services sector. - [Supporting source](https://hiringlab.indeed.com/2025/12/16/october-november-2025-jobs-report-put-an-asterisk-on-it/) ## Source-stated Ullrich says workers outside the sectors generating job growth may be turning to temporary or gig work. > Sidelined workers are showing signs of turning to temporary or gig work to get by - [Supporting source](https://hiringlab.indeed.com/2025/12/16/october-november-2025-jobs-report-put-an-asterisk-on-it/) ## Source-stated Ullrich says tariff policy may account for some of the weakness in several industries, and uncertainty around it potentially more. > It is difficult not to attribute at least some of this weakness to tariff policy, and potentially even more to the uncertainty surrounding it. - [Supporting source](https://hiringlab.indeed.com/2025/12/16/october-november-2025-jobs-report-put-an-asterisk-on-it/) ## Source-stated Ullrich says outdated data collection may mean recent job creation numbers are overstated, and calls for guarded interpretation until updated estimates are available. > Outdated data collection methods have been explicitly called into question by Fed Chair Jerome Powell lately, raising fears that recent job creation numbers could be overstated by around 60,000 per month. - [Supporting source](https://hiringlab.indeed.com/2025/12/16/october-november-2025-jobs-report-put-an-asterisk-on-it/) ## Source-stated Ullrich says the labor market may have lost jobs in many months, with future revisions potentially showing a bleaker picture. > it is also possible that we have lost jobs in many of the months this year, and future revisions will present an even bleaker view. - [Supporting source](https://hiringlab.indeed.com/2025/12/16/october-november-2025-jobs-report-put-an-asterisk-on-it/) ## Source and contributor context Indeed Hiring Lab · Publisher The publisher is identified here. No individual author has been inferred. ## Source media Media retrieval status: unchecked. ## Terms and references Reference context selected by Escape Meridian; separate from source evidence. Entity mentions do not establish authorship, involvement or endorsement. ## Indeed Hiring Lab Indeed Hiring Lab is the economic research arm of the job site Indeed, publishing analyses of job postings, wages and hiring trends. - [Explore this context](/entities/indeed-hiring-lab) - [Reference](https://www.hiringlab.org/) - [Reference](https://www.hiringlab.org/feed/) ## U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes US data on employment, pay, prices and productivity. - [Explore this context](/entities/us-bls) - [Reference](https://www.bls.gov/) ## Editorial provenance Version 1. Publication ID: 39b533c5-1d98-1b52-ba1a-543a745f8482. Prepared by openai/gpt-6-luna; grounding review by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5. Source check: uncertain by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5 on 2026-11-09T14:24:07.702Z. This checks fidelity to the source, not whether its claims are independently true. Editorial selection: accept; reasons: bridge\_admitted\_by\_model. Observation: 3c4780dd1596c932d80916257241e7c586c8faaa3d850f1efd65cbe7cb592c3b. Source text hash: d1316d33e00dc9c8066ce1fc48965ee6ec6e353cb0859873c8b05a35844a9cc5. ### uncertain — 2026-11-09T14:24:07.702Z — anthropic/claude-opus-5.5 Publication: 39b533c5-1d98-1b52-ba1a-543a745f8482 attribution — uncertain: The piece is correctly attributed to Laura Ullrich at Indeed Hiring Lab. However, the summary says 'Ullrich warns that outdated data collection may mean recent job creation has been overstated.' The source says Fed Chair Jerome Powell questioned the methods, raising fears of overstatement by around 60,000 per month. Smallest repair: name Powell as the source of that challenge and keep Ullrich's own call for guarded interpretation. > Outdated data collection methods have been explicitly called into question by Fed Chair Jerome Powell lately, raising fears that recent job creation numbers could be overstated by around 60,000 per month. summary — uncertain: The reading tracks the argument and preserves its sobering tone. Two central terms are left unexplained for a general reader, and no definitions are supplied. 'Household survey' is not explained as the survey behind the unemployment rate. The 'life-death model' is not explained, though the source glosses it as a model of business creation and demise. The reading also drops the headline figures: +64,000 jobs in November, -105,000 in October, and 4.6% unemployment. Its link to AI is not evident from the source, and the reading does not address it. > The BLS will reportedly update its so-called “life-death model” of business creation and demise in February 2026. date — pass: The originalPublished date of 2025-12-16 matches the source dateline and is stated at day precision. The February 2026 model update is reported as a 'reportedly' planned change, not as an outcome. The page is a publisher page, so no archive disclosure is needed. The modification time falls on the same day. The carousel titles are not used. > By Laura Ullrich December 16, 2025 support — pass: Each claim matches its verbatim excerpt. Sector concentration, gig work, the tariff hedge, guarded interpretation and possible bleaker revisions are all supported and conditionally framed. The closing question follows from the source's own call to await revised estimates. > Until we observe the new methodology and updated payroll estimates, we should remain guarded in our interpretation of these data. media — pass: No media was selected, and no verified candidates were supplied. Leaving the media empty is appropriate. ## Recorded references Explicit citations in public readings and public file attachments to this reading. Shared topics are not citations. Other artifact types need an explicit reference adapter. No public references recorded here yet. [Reference data (JSON)](/readings/a030494e269f52b575697738b1449694620ee10c17989283262ffa01e211af52/references.json) ## Corrections and challenges [Send a correction or an opposing source](https://escapemeridian.com/corrections/) [JSON record](https://escapemeridian.com/readings/laura-ullrich-argues-in-indeed-hiring-lab-that-the-jobs-report-a030494e.json)