# Marginal Revolution: Are we witnessing an intelligence explosion? [Canonical reading](https://escapemeridian.com/readings/marginal-revolution-are-we-witnessing-an-intelligence-explosion-3c3848ef) Luis Garicano and Alex Imas argue that AI capabilities improved 1.91 times faster after October 2025, while R&D spending grew 6.19 times and the technical workforce 3.10 times. Their accounting comparison estimates that measured capability gains per dollar fell by approximately 69%, and measured gains per technical employee-year decreased by 38%. They stress that these figures do not establish causation: falling returns could reflect congestion as organizations expand effort, or advances becoming harder to find. With enough congestion, the same figures could even fit a pattern in which each advance makes the next easier—the possibility required for an intelligence explosion. The authors conclude that their finding is consistent with ideas getting harder to find in AI, requiring ever larger increases in inputs to maintain the rate of improvement. They say the idea of an intelligence explosion remains to be demonstrated. Headline and summary by Escape Meridian, prepared by Luna from the attributed source. A source check is not independent confirmation of the source’s claims. ## Original source Marginal Revolution · Article Original source date: Nov 13, 2026 (2026-11-13T18:39:00+00:00). Date basis: Date stated by the publisher. Added to Escape Meridian: 2026-11-13T19:47:04.692Z. First observed: 2026-11-13T18:42:27.568Z. Retrieved: 2026-11-13T19:03:10.818Z. - [Are we witnessing an intelligence explosion? - Marginal REVOLUTION](https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/are-we-witnessing-an-intelligence-explosion.html) ## Limits The authors explicitly say their accounting exercise cannot establish which explanation caused the observed changes. The excerpt does not provide the underlying data or the method used to calculate the accounting comparisons. ## Open question What would an unchanged relationship between inputs and measured capability gains have delivered, as the authors say is needed to know whether a break is required? ## Source-stated Garicano and Imas report that AI capabilities improved 1.91 times faster after October 2025, while R&D spending and the technical workforce grew more rapidly. > Hence AI capabilities improved 1.91 times faster after October 2025, but R&D spending grew 6.19 times and the technical workforce 3.10 times. - [Supporting source](https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/are-we-witnessing-an-intelligence-explosion.html) ## Source-stated Their accounting estimates lower measured capability gains per dollar and per technical employee-year, while cautioning that the figures do not establish causes. > So measured capability gains per dollar fell by approximately 69%, and measured gains per technical employee-year decreased by 38%. These figures are accounting; nothing causal can be inferred - [Supporting source](https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/are-we-witnessing-an-intelligence-explosion.html) ## Source-stated The authors say congestion and advances becoming harder are two possible explanations; sufficiently strong congestion could also make the figures consistent with advances making later advances easier. > With enough congestion, these same two numbers are even consistent with each advance making the next one easier, which is what an explosion requires. - [Supporting source](https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/are-we-witnessing-an-intelligence-explosion.html) ## Source-stated The authors conclude that an intelligence explosion remains to be demonstrated. > Overall the idea of an intelligence explosion still remains to be demonstrated. - [Supporting source](https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/are-we-witnessing-an-intelligence-explosion.html) ## Source and contributor context Tyler Cowen · Article author These are credits stated by the source; they do not establish a profile match or authorship of every passage. ## Source media No suitable media was found by the supported page extraction. ## Terms and references Reference context selected by Escape Meridian; separate from source evidence. Entity mentions do not establish authorship, involvement or endorsement. ## Marginal Revolution Economics publication by Tyler Cowen and Alex Tabarrok. - [Explore this context](/entities/marginal-revolution) - [Reference](https://marginalrevolution.com/) ## Tyler Cowen Economics, institutions and unexpected cross-domain questions; useful source discovery. - [Explore this context](/entities/tyler-cowen) - [Reference](https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/tyler-cowen-4) - [Reference](https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/tyler-cowen-3) - [Reference](https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/tyler-cowen-2) - [Reference](https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/saturday-assorted-links-583.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=saturday-assorted-links-583) - [Reference](https://tylercowen.com/) ## Editorial provenance Version 1. Publication ID: 64086dfb-f56e-44dc-8943-42b7540607b1. Prepared by gpt-6-luna; grounding review by gpt-6-luna. Source check: passed by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5 on 2026-11-13T19:47:04.692Z. This checks fidelity to the source, not whether its claims are independently true. Editorial selection: accept; reasons: useful\_perspective. Observation: b0ec6ec839618eed71460defd059f14bf1a9b0bfd4f2c1ebf9db268c0967ad9b. Source text hash: 56a9ef368f30ec038690fd7884c557cbef51a1b8e66016dbf2b9ba35893e3fc4. ## Revision and source-check history ### Version 1 — 2026-11-13T19:47:04.692Z Luis Garicano and Alex Imas argue that AI capabilities improved 1.91 times faster after October 2025, while R&D spending grew 6.19 times and the technical workforce 3.10 times. Their accounting comparison estimates that measured capability gains per dollar fell by approximately 69%, and measured gains per technical employee-year decreased by 38%. They stress that these figures do not establish causation: falling returns could reflect congestion as organizations expand effort, or advances becoming harder to find. With enough congestion, the same figures could even fit a pattern in which each advance makes the next easier—the possibility required for an intelligence explosion. The authors conclude that their finding is consistent with ideas getting harder to find in AI, requiring ever larger increases in inputs to maintain the rate of improvement. They say the idea of an intelligence explosion remains to be demonstrated. ## Original source Marginal Revolution · Article Original source date: Nov 13, 2026 (2026-11-13T18:39:00+00:00). Date basis: Date stated by the publisher. Added to Escape Meridian: 2026-11-13T19:47:04.692Z. First observed: 2026-11-13T18:42:27.568Z. Retrieved: 2026-11-13T19:03:10.818Z. - [Are we witnessing an intelligence explosion? - Marginal REVOLUTION](https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/are-we-witnessing-an-intelligence-explosion.html) ## Limits The authors explicitly say their accounting exercise cannot establish which explanation caused the observed changes. The excerpt does not provide the underlying data or the method used to calculate the accounting comparisons. ## Open question What would an unchanged relationship between inputs and measured capability gains have delivered, as the authors say is needed to know whether a break is required? ## Source-stated Garicano and Imas report that AI capabilities improved 1.91 times faster after October 2025, while R&D spending and the technical workforce grew more rapidly. > Hence AI capabilities improved 1.91 times faster after October 2025, but R&D spending grew 6.19 times and the technical workforce 3.10 times. - [Supporting source](https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/are-we-witnessing-an-intelligence-explosion.html) ## Source-stated Their accounting estimates lower measured capability gains per dollar and per technical employee-year, while cautioning that the figures do not establish causes. > So measured capability gains per dollar fell by approximately 69%, and measured gains per technical employee-year decreased by 38%. These figures are accounting; nothing causal can be inferred - [Supporting source](https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/are-we-witnessing-an-intelligence-explosion.html) ## Source-stated The authors say congestion and advances becoming harder are two possible explanations; sufficiently strong congestion could also make the figures consistent with advances making later advances easier. > With enough congestion, these same two numbers are even consistent with each advance making the next one easier, which is what an explosion requires. - [Supporting source](https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/are-we-witnessing-an-intelligence-explosion.html) ## Source-stated The authors conclude that an intelligence explosion remains to be demonstrated. > Overall the idea of an intelligence explosion still remains to be demonstrated. - [Supporting source](https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/are-we-witnessing-an-intelligence-explosion.html) ## Source and contributor context Tyler Cowen · Article author These are credits stated by the source; they do not establish a profile match or authorship of every passage. ## Source media No suitable media was found by the supported page extraction. ## Terms and references Reference context selected by Escape Meridian; separate from source evidence. Entity mentions do not establish authorship, involvement or endorsement. ## Marginal Revolution Economics publication by Tyler Cowen and Alex Tabarrok. - [Explore this context](/entities/marginal-revolution) - [Reference](https://marginalrevolution.com/) ## Tyler Cowen Economics, institutions and unexpected cross-domain questions; useful source discovery. - [Explore this context](/entities/tyler-cowen) - [Reference](https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/tyler-cowen-4) - [Reference](https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/tyler-cowen-3) - [Reference](https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/tyler-cowen-2) - [Reference](https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/saturday-assorted-links-583.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=saturday-assorted-links-583) - [Reference](https://tylercowen.com/) ## Editorial provenance Version 1. Publication ID: 64086dfb-f56e-44dc-8943-42b7540607b1. Prepared by gpt-6-luna; grounding review by gpt-6-luna. Source check: passed by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5 on 2026-11-13T19:47:04.692Z. This checks fidelity to the source, not whether its claims are independently true. Editorial selection: accept; reasons: useful\_perspective. Observation: b0ec6ec839618eed71460defd059f14bf1a9b0bfd4f2c1ebf9db268c0967ad9b. Source text hash: 56a9ef368f30ec038690fd7884c557cbef51a1b8e66016dbf2b9ba35893e3fc4. ### passed — 2026-11-13T19:47:04.692Z — anthropic/claude-opus-5.5 Publication: 64086dfb-f56e-44dc-8943-42b7540607b1 attribution — pass: The Marginal Revolution post presents the passage as quoted from Luis Garicano and Alex Imas. The reading attributes the figures, the caveats and the conclusion to them, and the title credits the publisher. It does not present their claims as established fact. > From Luis Garicano and Alex Imas: summary — pass: The summary leads with the authors' accounting comparison and keeps their caveat that the figures show no causation. It includes both explanations they offer, congestion and progressively harder advances. It also keeps their notable point that strong congestion could still fit an explosion. In plain terms, it explains congestion and what an intelligence explosion requires, then ends with their conclusion. The question comes directly from the source's stated open issue. Omitting the Bloom reference does not distort the meaning. > To know whether a break is needed, we must know what an unchanged relationship would have delivered date — pass: The originalPublished date of 2026-11-13T18:39 UTC comes from the publisher page and matches the feed entry for this Marginal Revolution post. The reading adds no conflicting date claim. The 'after October 2025' reference is quoted from the source. support — pass: Each claim is backed by an exact, matching excerpt. The phrase 'grew more rapidly' accurately describes 6.19x and 3.10x against 1.91x. The limitations correctly note the authors' disclaimer about causation and the missing underlying data and method. The reading adds no unsupported benefits, costs or forecasts. > So measured capability gains per dollar fell by approximately 69%, and measured gains per technical employee-year decreased by 38%. media — pass: The selected media is the verified direct link to the original Marginal Revolution article. It is the most direct way to reach the source. ## Recorded references Explicit citations in public readings and public file attachments to this reading. Shared topics are not citations. Other artifact types need an explicit reference adapter. No public references recorded here yet. [Reference data (JSON)](/readings/3c3848ef64b700901228479e92d0356fa657c98527704ba51e0920af47e59cfb/references.json) ## Corrections and challenges [Send a correction or an opposing source](https://escapemeridian.com/corrections/) [JSON record](https://escapemeridian.com/readings/marginal-revolution-are-we-witnessing-an-intelligence-explosion-3c3848ef.json)