# Martin Almuzara, Richard Audoly, and Davide Melcangi assess wage inflation in Liberty Street Economics [Canonical reading](https://escapemeridian.com/readings/martin-almuzara-richard-audoly-and-davide-melcangi-assess-wage-632c1497) The post was published on May 26, 2026. Martin Almuzara, Richard Audoly, and Davide Melcangi use Trend Wage Inflation (TWIn), their measure of persistent wage growth, to assess underlying wage inflation. They report that TWIn’s decline after its late-2021 peak has slowed, with the measure near its 2017-19 average. They say this flattening is consistent with a broadly balanced labor market, while the narrower gap between TWIn and trend price inflation suggests households’ earnings have grown more slowly in real terms than in the second half of the 2010s. The authors find that most of TWIn’s decline was common across industries, but construction and mining have diverged: their industry-specific trend has risen since 2022, leaving wage growth there persistently stronger than in the rest of the economy. They suggest construction of AI data centers and reductions in net immigration could contribute to this pattern; they do not establish either as its cause. The authors’ conclusion is that wage inflation’s easing appears to have slowed, but its direction remains uncertain: construction may continue to put some upward pressure on it, while deteriorating labor market conditions could renew downward pressure. The post does not establish how those forces will develop. Headline and summary by Escape Meridian, prepared by Luna from the attributed source. A source check is not independent confirmation of the source’s claims. ## Original source Federal Reserve Bank of New York · Article Original source date: May 26, 2026 (2026-05-26T11:00:00.000Z). Date basis: Date supplied by the publisher’s feed. Added to Escape Meridian: 2026-11-07T02:03:23.678Z. First observed: 2026-10-23T15:58:10.647Z. Retrieved: 2026-10-23T15:59:40.304Z. - [Assessing the Current State of Wage Inflation](https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/05/assessing-the-current-state-of-wage-inflation/) ## Limits Text as retrieved on October 23, 2026; originally published May 26, 2026. The post reports estimates and possible explanations, not established causes or outcomes. ## Open question Will construction and mining continue to put upward pressure on wage inflation, or will deteriorating labor market conditions renew downward pressure? ## Source-stated The authors use TWIn, their measure of persistent wage growth, to assess underlying wage inflation. > we use our own measure of wage growth persistence—called Trend Wage Inflation (TWIn in short)—to summarize what we learned - [Supporting source](https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/05/assessing-the-current-state-of-wage-inflation/) ## Source-stated The authors report that TWIn’s decline has slowed and that it is near its 2017-19 average. > TWIn appears to have leveled off again, this time near the 2017-19 average. - [Supporting source](https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/05/assessing-the-current-state-of-wage-inflation/) ## Source-stated The authors say most of TWIn’s decline was common across industries, while construction and mining diverged from the economy-wide pattern. > The decline in TWIn since its peak was widespread across the economy. - [Supporting source](https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/05/assessing-the-current-state-of-wage-inflation/) ## Source-stated The authors suggest construction of AI data centers and reductions in net immigration could contribute to stronger wage growth in construction and mining. > This pattern could be related to construction of AI data centers, with sustained labor demand fueling wage inflation. Recent reductions in net immigration could work in the same direction - [Supporting source](https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/05/assessing-the-current-state-of-wage-inflation/) ## Source-stated The authors say construction may continue to put upward pressure on wage inflation, while deteriorating labor market conditions could renew downward pressure. > specific industries such as construction may continue to put some upward pressure on wage inflation, as they have done in recent months. On the other hand, any deterioration of labor market conditions could result in renewed downward pressure on wage inflation. - [Supporting source](https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/05/assessing-the-current-state-of-wage-inflation/) ## Source-stated The post was published on May 26, 2026. > May 26, 2026 > Assessing the Current State of Wage Inflation - [Supporting source](https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/05/assessing-the-current-state-of-wage-inflation/) ## Source and contributor context Federal Reserve Bank of New York · Publisher The publisher is identified here. No individual author has been inferred. ## Source media Media retrieval status: unchecked. ## Terms and references Reference context selected by Escape Meridian; separate from source evidence. Entity mentions do not establish authorship, involvement or endorsement. ## Editorial provenance Version 1. Publication ID: c030e4ac-f840-3746-284b-01ccfb4733b0. Prepared by openai/gpt-6-luna; grounding review by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5. Source check: passed by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5 on 2026-11-07T01:58:46.015Z. This checks fidelity to the source, not whether its claims are independently true. Editorial selection: accept; reasons: bridge\_screen. Observation: 23adc0eaa2b7d8d5146e8766889376f31aa052aac315c8c78982fd6842a0d85d. Source text hash: 645ece51f2042649d2a694002b54a2df097f0836b521c711c8678b894cb10fad. ## Revision and source-check history ### Version 1 — 2026-11-07T02:03:23.678Z The post was published on May 26, 2026. Martin Almuzara, Richard Audoly, and Davide Melcangi use Trend Wage Inflation (TWIn), their measure of persistent wage growth, to assess underlying wage inflation. They report that TWIn’s decline after its late-2021 peak has slowed, with the measure near its 2017-19 average. They say this flattening is consistent with a broadly balanced labor market, while the narrower gap between TWIn and trend price inflation suggests households’ earnings have grown more slowly in real terms than in the second half of the 2010s. The authors find that most of TWIn’s decline was common across industries, but construction and mining have diverged: their industry-specific trend has risen since 2022, leaving wage growth there persistently stronger than in the rest of the economy. They suggest construction of AI data centers and reductions in net immigration could contribute to this pattern; they do not establish either as its cause. The authors’ conclusion is that wage inflation’s easing appears to have slowed, but its direction remains uncertain: construction may continue to put some upward pressure on it, while deteriorating labor market conditions could renew downward pressure. The post does not establish how those forces will develop. ## Original source Federal Reserve Bank of New York · Article Original source date: May 26, 2026 (2026-05-26T11:00:00.000Z). Date basis: Date supplied by the publisher’s feed. Added to Escape Meridian: 2026-11-07T02:03:23.678Z. First observed: 2026-10-23T15:58:10.647Z. Retrieved: 2026-10-23T15:59:40.304Z. - [Assessing the Current State of Wage Inflation](https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/05/assessing-the-current-state-of-wage-inflation/) ## Limits Text as retrieved on October 23, 2026; originally published May 26, 2026. The post reports estimates and possible explanations, not established causes or outcomes. ## Open question Will construction and mining continue to put upward pressure on wage inflation, or will deteriorating labor market conditions renew downward pressure? ## Source-stated The authors use TWIn, their measure of persistent wage growth, to assess underlying wage inflation. > we use our own measure of wage growth persistence—called Trend Wage Inflation (TWIn in short)—to summarize what we learned - [Supporting source](https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/05/assessing-the-current-state-of-wage-inflation/) ## Source-stated The authors report that TWIn’s decline has slowed and that it is near its 2017-19 average. > TWIn appears to have leveled off again, this time near the 2017-19 average. - [Supporting source](https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/05/assessing-the-current-state-of-wage-inflation/) ## Source-stated The authors say most of TWIn’s decline was common across industries, while construction and mining diverged from the economy-wide pattern. > The decline in TWIn since its peak was widespread across the economy. - [Supporting source](https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/05/assessing-the-current-state-of-wage-inflation/) ## Source-stated The authors suggest construction of AI data centers and reductions in net immigration could contribute to stronger wage growth in construction and mining. > This pattern could be related to construction of AI data centers, with sustained labor demand fueling wage inflation. Recent reductions in net immigration could work in the same direction - [Supporting source](https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/05/assessing-the-current-state-of-wage-inflation/) ## Source-stated The authors say construction may continue to put upward pressure on wage inflation, while deteriorating labor market conditions could renew downward pressure. > specific industries such as construction may continue to put some upward pressure on wage inflation, as they have done in recent months. On the other hand, any deterioration of labor market conditions could result in renewed downward pressure on wage inflation. - [Supporting source](https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/05/assessing-the-current-state-of-wage-inflation/) ## Source-stated The post was published on May 26, 2026. > May 26, 2026 > Assessing the Current State of Wage Inflation - [Supporting source](https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/05/assessing-the-current-state-of-wage-inflation/) ## Source and contributor context Federal Reserve Bank of New York · Publisher The publisher is identified here. No individual author has been inferred. ## Source media Media retrieval status: unchecked. ## Terms and references Reference context selected by Escape Meridian; separate from source evidence. Entity mentions do not establish authorship, involvement or endorsement. ## Editorial provenance Version 1. Publication ID: c030e4ac-f840-3746-284b-01ccfb4733b0. Prepared by openai/gpt-6-luna; grounding review by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5. Source check: passed by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5 on 2026-11-07T01:58:46.015Z. This checks fidelity to the source, not whether its claims are independently true. Editorial selection: accept; reasons: bridge\_screen. Observation: 23adc0eaa2b7d8d5146e8766889376f31aa052aac315c8c78982fd6842a0d85d. Source text hash: 645ece51f2042649d2a694002b54a2df097f0836b521c711c8678b894cb10fad. ### passed — 2026-11-07T01:58:46.015Z — anthropic/claude-opus-5.5 Publication: c030e4ac-f840-3746-284b-01ccfb4733b0 attribution — pass: The reading correctly attributes the post and its analysis to Martin Almuzara, Richard Audoly, and Davide Melcangi in the New York Fed's Liberty Street Economics. Their findings and suggestions are kept as the authors' statements. The text is a single post, not a listing. > Martin Almuzara, Richard Audoly, and Davide Melcangi summary — pass: The summary faithfully conveys the post's main findings: TWIn leveling off near the 2017-19 average, a broadly common decline across industries, the construction and mining divergence, the tentative AI data center and immigration explanations, and the two-sided outlook. TWIn is explained in plain terms. The question adds mining where the source's outlook names only construction, but this is a minor scope detail and the question stays grounded. > After a prolonged period of moderation, the easing in our TWIn measure appears to have slowed. date — pass: May 26, 2026 matches the source dateline and the UTC day of originalPublished. The page was edited after publication (dateModified September 30, 2026), but the cited body text is plainly part of the original dated post. The October 2025 shutdown note predates publication. The outlook is reported as the authors' forecast, not an outcome, and there is no hindsight framing. As a publisher page, the reading needs no archive disclosure. > May 26, 2026 Assessing the Current State of Wage Inflation support — pass: Each claim is supported by the post's body, which is plainly original despite the later page edit. This includes the rising construction and mining idiosyncratic trend since 2022 and the hedged AI data center and immigration explanations. The reading appropriately notes that these causes are not established. > The idiosyncratic trend specific to the construction and mining industry has risen since 2022, in contrast with economy-wide downward pressures to wage growth. media — pass: No media was selected, and no verified media candidates were supplied, so there is nothing misidentified or irrelevant. ## Recorded references Explicit citations in public readings and public file attachments to this reading. Shared topics are not citations. Other artifact types need an explicit reference adapter. No public references recorded here yet. [Reference data (JSON)](/readings/632c1497effa417bb658c769b1d67a94c04a30906004b33a4626b49ad96d965f/references.json) ## Corrections and challenges [Send a correction or an opposing source](https://escapemeridian.com/corrections/) [JSON record](https://escapemeridian.com/readings/martin-almuzara-richard-audoly-and-davide-melcangi-assess-wage-632c1497.json)