# Rajashri Chakrabarti and coauthors describe new spending data in Liberty Street Economics [Canonical reading](https://escapemeridian.com/readings/rajashri-chakrabarti-and-coauthors-describe-new-spending-data-a9a4c600) On February 3, 2026, Rajashri Chakrabarti, Thu Pham, Beck Pierce, and Maxim L. Pinkovskiy introduce consumer-spending measures for the New York Fed’s Economic Heterogeneity Indicators. Using Numerator data, the authors say the measures can track spending across demographic groups more promptly than public surveys. Their example compares households by whether the respondent graduated from college. By December 2025, they report, college-graduate households’ nominal retail spending had grown about 2.4 percentage points faster than nongraduate households’ spending relative to January 2023. After adjusting for inflation with demographic-specific indices, the authors report that nongraduate households’ spending was about 4 percent above January 2023, while college-graduate households’ spending had risen by 6 percent. They say this difference is consistent with the story of a “K-shaped economy,” even as college graduates faced a relatively more difficult labor market in 2025. The post presents the measures as a way to track which groups may be driving or dialing back consumption; its example shows a spending divergence, not whether that gap will persist. The authors look forward to sharing further insights in later posts and indicator releases. Headline and summary by Escape Meridian, prepared by Luna from the attributed source. A source check is not independent confirmation of the source’s claims. ## Original source Federal Reserve Bank of New York · Article Original source date: Feb 3, 2026 (2026-02-03T15:00:00.000Z). Date basis: Date supplied by the publisher’s feed. Added to Escape Meridian: 2026-11-09T00:53:25.427Z. First observed: 2026-10-30T07:44:00.939Z. Retrieved: 2026-10-30T07:45:45.578Z. - [A New Dataset for Consumer Spending in the New York Fed EHIs](https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/02/a-new-dataset-for-consumer-spending-in-the-economic-heterogeneity-indicators/) ## Limits Text as retrieved on October 30, 2026; originally published February 3, 2026. The spending comparison is an example drawn from Numerator’s panel; the post does not establish whether the reported gap will persist. ## Open question Will later releases show whether the spending gap between college-graduate and nongraduate households persists or changes? ## Source-stated The authors say the new measures will track consumer spending across demographic groups more promptly than public surveys allow. > The data will help track the evolution of aggregate behavior by analyzing the spending of specific groups in a more timely manner than is possible using public surveys. - [Supporting source](https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/02/a-new-dataset-for-consumer-spending-in-the-economic-heterogeneity-indicators/) ## Source-stated The authors use Numerator consumer analytics data from an elective panel of consumers reweighted to match Census aggregates. > Numerator, which maintains an elective panel of 200,000 U.S. consumers that it reweighs to match Census aggregates across multiple dimensions. - [Supporting source](https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/02/a-new-dataset-for-consumer-spending-in-the-economic-heterogeneity-indicators/) ## Source-stated The authors report that by December 2025 nominal retail spending growth among college-graduate households exceeded that of nongraduate households by about 2.4 percentage points relative to January 2023. > By December 2025, households in which the respondent is a college graduate have experienced growth in retail spending about 2.4 percentage points faster than households in which the respondent is not a college graduate - [Supporting source](https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/02/a-new-dataset-for-consumer-spending-in-the-economic-heterogeneity-indicators/) ## Source-stated The authors report that real retail spending for nongraduate households was about 4 percent above January 2023, while college-graduate households’ spending had risen by 6 percent. > currently stands at only about 4 percent higher than it was in January 2023. On the other hand, while college graduates’ retail spending stagnated in 2023-24, by December 2025 it has risen by 6 percent relative to January 2023. - [Supporting source](https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/02/a-new-dataset-for-consumer-spending-in-the-economic-heterogeneity-indicators/) ## Source-stated The authors say the difference in retail-spending trends is consistent with the story of a “K-shaped economy.” > The difference in the trend in retail spending between college graduates and nongraduates is consistent with the story of a “K-shaped economy.” - [Supporting source](https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/02/a-new-dataset-for-consumer-spending-in-the-economic-heterogeneity-indicators/) ## Source and contributor context Federal Reserve Bank of New York · Publisher The publisher is identified here. No individual author has been inferred. ## Source media Media retrieval status: unchecked. ## Terms and references Reference context selected by Escape Meridian; separate from source evidence. Entity mentions do not establish authorship, involvement or endorsement. ## Editorial provenance Version 1. Publication ID: 21a09781-0b34-c31e-4efb-a971fbf46e99. Prepared by openai/gpt-6-luna; grounding review by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5. Source check: uncertain by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5 on 2026-11-09T00:51:06.141Z. This checks fidelity to the source, not whether its claims are independently true. Editorial selection: accept; reasons: bridge\_admitted\_by\_model. Observation: 87abd9900bdf6edb0db28372fa97a0b4a47041d9007d4df4fda30a35f79c81f5. Source text hash: e1d92acedf09ef4cc0482101d2619051c214292564d66e406943bbf4dc6b5892. ## Revision and source-check history ### Version 1 — 2026-11-09T00:53:25.427Z On February 3, 2026, Rajashri Chakrabarti, Thu Pham, Beck Pierce, and Maxim L. Pinkovskiy introduce consumer-spending measures for the New York Fed’s Economic Heterogeneity Indicators. Using Numerator data, the authors say the measures can track spending across demographic groups more promptly than public surveys. Their example compares households by whether the respondent graduated from college. By December 2025, they report, college-graduate households’ nominal retail spending had grown about 2.4 percentage points faster than nongraduate households’ spending relative to January 2023. After adjusting for inflation with demographic-specific indices, the authors report that nongraduate households’ spending was about 4 percent above January 2023, while college-graduate households’ spending had risen by 6 percent. They say this difference is consistent with the story of a “K-shaped economy,” even as college graduates faced a relatively more difficult labor market in 2025. The post presents the measures as a way to track which groups may be driving or dialing back consumption; its example shows a spending divergence, not whether that gap will persist. The authors look forward to sharing further insights in later posts and indicator releases. ## Original source Federal Reserve Bank of New York · Article Original source date: Feb 3, 2026 (2026-02-03T15:00:00.000Z). Date basis: Date supplied by the publisher’s feed. Added to Escape Meridian: 2026-11-09T00:53:25.427Z. First observed: 2026-10-30T07:44:00.939Z. Retrieved: 2026-10-30T07:45:45.578Z. - [A New Dataset for Consumer Spending in the New York Fed EHIs](https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/02/a-new-dataset-for-consumer-spending-in-the-economic-heterogeneity-indicators/) ## Limits Text as retrieved on October 30, 2026; originally published February 3, 2026. The spending comparison is an example drawn from Numerator’s panel; the post does not establish whether the reported gap will persist. ## Open question Will later releases show whether the spending gap between college-graduate and nongraduate households persists or changes? ## Source-stated The authors say the new measures will track consumer spending across demographic groups more promptly than public surveys allow. > The data will help track the evolution of aggregate behavior by analyzing the spending of specific groups in a more timely manner than is possible using public surveys. - [Supporting source](https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/02/a-new-dataset-for-consumer-spending-in-the-economic-heterogeneity-indicators/) ## Source-stated The authors use Numerator consumer analytics data from an elective panel of consumers reweighted to match Census aggregates. > Numerator, which maintains an elective panel of 200,000 U.S. consumers that it reweighs to match Census aggregates across multiple dimensions. - [Supporting source](https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/02/a-new-dataset-for-consumer-spending-in-the-economic-heterogeneity-indicators/) ## Source-stated The authors report that by December 2025 nominal retail spending growth among college-graduate households exceeded that of nongraduate households by about 2.4 percentage points relative to January 2023. > By December 2025, households in which the respondent is a college graduate have experienced growth in retail spending about 2.4 percentage points faster than households in which the respondent is not a college graduate - [Supporting source](https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/02/a-new-dataset-for-consumer-spending-in-the-economic-heterogeneity-indicators/) ## Source-stated The authors report that real retail spending for nongraduate households was about 4 percent above January 2023, while college-graduate households’ spending had risen by 6 percent. > currently stands at only about 4 percent higher than it was in January 2023. On the other hand, while college graduates’ retail spending stagnated in 2023-24, by December 2025 it has risen by 6 percent relative to January 2023. - [Supporting source](https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/02/a-new-dataset-for-consumer-spending-in-the-economic-heterogeneity-indicators/) ## Source-stated The authors say the difference in retail-spending trends is consistent with the story of a “K-shaped economy.” > The difference in the trend in retail spending between college graduates and nongraduates is consistent with the story of a “K-shaped economy.” - [Supporting source](https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/02/a-new-dataset-for-consumer-spending-in-the-economic-heterogeneity-indicators/) ## Source and contributor context Federal Reserve Bank of New York · Publisher The publisher is identified here. No individual author has been inferred. ## Source media Media retrieval status: unchecked. ## Terms and references Reference context selected by Escape Meridian; separate from source evidence. Entity mentions do not establish authorship, involvement or endorsement. ## Editorial provenance Version 1. Publication ID: 21a09781-0b34-c31e-4efb-a971fbf46e99. Prepared by openai/gpt-6-luna; grounding review by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5. Source check: uncertain by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5 on 2026-11-09T00:51:06.141Z. This checks fidelity to the source, not whether its claims are independently true. Editorial selection: accept; reasons: bridge\_admitted\_by\_model. Observation: 87abd9900bdf6edb0db28372fa97a0b4a47041d9007d4df4fda30a35f79c81f5. Source text hash: e1d92acedf09ef4cc0482101d2619051c214292564d66e406943bbf4dc6b5892. ### uncertain — 2026-11-09T00:51:06.141Z — anthropic/claude-opus-5.5 Publication: 21a09781-0b34-c31e-4efb-a971fbf46e99 attribution — pass: The reading correctly credits Rajashri Chakrabarti, Thu Pham, Beck Pierce and Maxim L. Pinkovskiy, writing in the New York Fed's Liberty Street Economics. The findings and the K-shaped framing stay attributed to the authors. The page is a single post, not a listing. > Rajashri Chakrabarti, Thu Pham, Beck Pierce, and Maxim L. Pinkovskiy summary — uncertain: The reading summarizes the post faithfully. However, its interpretive conclusion uses the term K-shaped economy, which is never explained, and the definitions list is empty. A general reader may not know it describes some groups pulling ahead while others stagnate. Numerator is also not identified as a consumer analytics firm. Smallest repair: add a term-library tooltip for K-shaped economy and a brief description of Numerator. > The difference in the trend in retail spending between college graduates and nongraduates is consistent with the story of a “K-shaped economy.” date — pass: The stated February 3, 2026 date matches the UTC day of originalPublished and the post's own dateline. The December 2025 figures predate publication, and the reading uses no later sidebar material. The page was modified in April 2026, but every cited passage is plainly part of the original article body. The kind is publisher-page, so no archive disclosure is needed. > February 3, 2026 support — pass: All the figures the reading cites appear in the source text: the 2.4 percentage-point nominal gap, real spending about 4 percent versus 6 percent above January 2023, the harder 2025 labor market for graduates, and the K-shaped framing. The 'driving or dialing back' phrasing lightly paraphrases the source's 'particularly salient' wording. The question about persistence is open-ended and adds no unsupported assumption. The later page edit does not appear to affect these core passages. > which groups in the economy may be particularly salient for overall consumption dynamics, and which groups, on the contrary, may be dialing consumption back media — pass: No media is selected, and no verified candidates were supplied, so nothing was misidentified. ## Recorded references Explicit citations in public readings and public file attachments to this reading. Shared topics are not citations. Other artifact types need an explicit reference adapter. No public references recorded here yet. [Reference data (JSON)](/readings/a9a4c6000533f4935a00fcf17e9b2934fdfbed69353e937c6344fbd66bd9fd8f/references.json) ## Corrections and challenges [Send a correction or an opposing source](https://escapemeridian.com/corrections/) [JSON record](https://escapemeridian.com/readings/rajashri-chakrabarti-and-coauthors-describe-new-spending-data-a9a4c600.json)