Scott Alexander · Oct 19, 2026
Scott Alexander’s open thread asks for input on AI safety grantmaking
Markdown · JSON · Original source
Scott Alexander’s open thread, published October 19, 2026, invites readers to discuss anything and shares several updates. Alexander asks people familiar with AI and grantmaking to rate the value of AI safety accomplishments, and to predict how he would rate them. He says the paired surveys could help distinguish differences in worldview from random noise in choosing weights. The thread also describes a real-money prediction market focused on AI and a project combining AI-written notes, user contributions and votes, and a browser extension. The survey offers a way to gather judgments about which AI safety accomplishments matter; the post does not report results or explain how those judgments would affect grantmaking. How closely will participants’ ratings and predictions align?
Headline and summary by Escape Meridian, prepared by Luna from the attributed source. A source check is not independent confirmation of the source’s claims.
Original source
Scott Alexander · Article
Source details
Original source date: Oct 19, 2026 (2026-10-19T17:51:46.000Z).
Date basis: Date supplied by the publisher’s feed.
Added to Escape Meridian: 2026-10-29T16:04:06.899Z. First observed: 2026-10-29T11:28:02.481Z. Retrieved: 2026-10-29T11:29:50.112Z.
Referenced by
Recorded citations and public file attachments. A reference alone does not establish agreement or influence.
No public references recorded here yet.
Limits
Text as retrieved on October 29, 2026; originally published October 19, 2026. This is a general open thread with several unrelated updates; it does not provide survey results or explain how survey responses will affect grantmaking. The post describes MNX and Common Notes but does not independently evaluate their operation or effects.
Open question
How closely will participants’ ratings of AI safety accomplishments align with their predictions of Alexander’s ratings?
Source-stated
Alexander invites people familiar with AI and grantmaking to assign value weights to AI safety accomplishments and to predict his answers in a separate survey.
This one involves assigning utility weights to ~80 different AI safety accomplishments.
Source-stated
Alexander says the alternate survey is intended to help distinguish worldview differences from random noise in choosing weights.
asks you to predict how I would answer the first survey (so I can separate out worldview differences from weight-choosing random noise).
Source-stated
The thread describes MNX as a real-money prediction market focused on AI, with markets tied to AI company stocks, revenues, and other targets.
MNX is a real-money prediction market on AI. It lets people sell futures representing AI company stocks, bet on AI company revenues directly
Source-stated
The thread describes Common Notes as combining AI-written notes, user-written notes and votes, and a browser extension.
They’re implementing it through a combination of AIs (who write most notes), users (who write others, and vote on which ones are helpful), and a browser extension
Source-stated
The post is dated October 19, 2026.
Oct 19, 2026
Source and contributor context
Scott Alexander · Publisher
The publisher is identified here. No individual author has been inferred.
Source media
Media retrieval status: unchecked.
Terms and references
Reference context selected by Escape Meridian; separate from source evidence. Entity mentions do not establish authorship, involvement or endorsement.
Scott Alexander
Scott Alexander authored essays published in the Slate Star Codex archive.
Editorial provenance
Version 1. Publication ID: a539a4af-6fc9-c139-8873-08f68f40974e.
Prepared by openai/gpt-6-luna; grounding review by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5.
Source check: passed by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5 on 2026-10-29T16:01:35.987Z. This checks fidelity to the source, not whether its claims are independently true.
Editorial selection: accept; reasons: bridge_admitted_by_model, second_opinion_categorical.
Observation: 6026c4af55f3552b89db747b5e05418a45721cb02d42fe29c171388dfe609c02. Source text hash: 8beda6f45951e6beab70dd6f2ce6cc0e0cfd469a83d6fcc3bbae5c6529d07d1e.
Revision and source-check history
Version 1 · 2026-10-29T16:04:06.899Z
Scott Alexander’s open thread asks for input on AI safety grantmaking
Scott Alexander’s open thread, published October 19, 2026, invites readers to discuss anything and shares several updates. Alexander asks people familiar with AI and grantmaking to rate the value of AI safety accomplishments, and to predict how he would rate them. He says the paired surveys could help distinguish differences in worldview from random noise in choosing weights. The thread also describes a real-money prediction market focused on AI and a project combining AI-written notes, user contributions and votes, and a browser extension. The survey offers a way to gather judgments about which AI safety accomplishments matter; the post does not report results or explain how those judgments would affect grantmaking. How closely will participants’ ratings and predictions align?
Original source
Scott Alexander · Article
Source details
Original source date: Oct 19, 2026 (2026-10-19T17:51:46.000Z).
Date basis: Date supplied by the publisher’s feed.
Added to Escape Meridian: 2026-10-29T16:04:06.899Z. First observed: 2026-10-29T11:28:02.481Z. Retrieved: 2026-10-29T11:29:50.112Z.
Limits
Text as retrieved on October 29, 2026; originally published October 19, 2026. This is a general open thread with several unrelated updates; it does not provide survey results or explain how survey responses will affect grantmaking. The post describes MNX and Common Notes but does not independently evaluate their operation or effects.
Open question
How closely will participants’ ratings of AI safety accomplishments align with their predictions of Alexander’s ratings?
Source-stated
Alexander invites people familiar with AI and grantmaking to assign value weights to AI safety accomplishments and to predict his answers in a separate survey.
This one involves assigning utility weights to ~80 different AI safety accomplishments.
Source-stated
Alexander says the alternate survey is intended to help distinguish worldview differences from random noise in choosing weights.
asks you to predict how I would answer the first survey (so I can separate out worldview differences from weight-choosing random noise).
Source-stated
The thread describes MNX as a real-money prediction market focused on AI, with markets tied to AI company stocks, revenues, and other targets.
MNX is a real-money prediction market on AI. It lets people sell futures representing AI company stocks, bet on AI company revenues directly
Source-stated
The thread describes Common Notes as combining AI-written notes, user-written notes and votes, and a browser extension.
They’re implementing it through a combination of AIs (who write most notes), users (who write others, and vote on which ones are helpful), and a browser extension
Source-stated
The post is dated October 19, 2026.
Oct 19, 2026
Source and contributor context
Scott Alexander · Publisher
The publisher is identified here. No individual author has been inferred.
Source media
Media retrieval status: unchecked.
Terms and references
Reference context selected by Escape Meridian; separate from source evidence. Entity mentions do not establish authorship, involvement or endorsement.
Scott Alexander
Scott Alexander authored essays published in the Slate Star Codex archive.
Editorial provenance
Version 1. Publication ID: a539a4af-6fc9-c139-8873-08f68f40974e.
Prepared by openai/gpt-6-luna; grounding review by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5.
Source check: passed by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5 on 2026-10-29T16:01:35.987Z. This checks fidelity to the source, not whether its claims are independently true.
Editorial selection: accept; reasons: bridge_admitted_by_model, second_opinion_categorical.
Observation: 6026c4af55f3552b89db747b5e05418a45721cb02d42fe29c171388dfe609c02. Source text hash: 8beda6f45951e6beab70dd6f2ce6cc0e0cfd469a83d6fcc3bbae5c6529d07d1e.
passed · 2026-10-29T16:01:35.987Z · anthropic/claude-opus-5.5
Publication: a539a4af-6fc9-c139-8873-08f68f40974e
attribution — pass: The reading correctly attributes the open thread, the survey request and its stated purpose to Scott Alexander. It presents MNX and Common Notes as items the thread describes, without claiming they are Alexander's own projects.
I’m continuing to work on modeling (and maybe one day automating) some parts of AI grantmaking
summary — pass: The title, summary and question accurately reflect the post: a general open thread whose AI-relevant items are a grantmaking-values survey, the MNX prediction market and Common Notes. Terms are explained in plain language. The summary notes that no results are reported and does not overstate significance. The question follows from the paired-survey design and does not lead the reader.
This one involves assigning utility weights to ~80 different AI safety accomplishments.
date — pass: The stated date, October 19, 2026, matches the source dateline and the UTC calendar day of evidence.originalPublished (2026-10-19T17:51:46Z). The evidence is a publisher page, so no archive disclosure is required. modifiedAt equals the publication time. The reading uses no later events and no hindsight framing.
Oct 19, 2026
support — pass: Each claim is backed by a verbatim excerpt. The surveys, their stated purpose, MNX's features and Common Notes' structure are all source-stated. The reading's limits on significance, namely no results and no explanation of grantmaking effects, match the source and add no unsupported benefits or costs.
asks you to predict how I would answer the first survey (so I can separate out worldview differences from weight-choosing random noise).
media — pass: No media is selected, and the evidence supplies no media candidates. Nothing is invented.
Challenge or correct this reading
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