{"id":"efbf99cacdda4428ccd5dfd9c947732b519b531e3b504d96b105f107ffc2df41","title":"Wilkie-Rogers and Tilly argue in Revelio Labs that Santa jobs are shrinking","argument":"On December 23, 2025, Wilkie-Rogers and Tilly argue in Revelio Labs that Santa hiring is shrinking even as reported pay rises. Their analysis says Santa job postings fell every year since 2022, while postings requiring a real beard grew from 14% to 70%. Median inflation-adjusted hourly pay rose about 14%, but the authors say this does not mean individual Santas are getting raises: employers are hiring more from the higher-paid, real-beard tier while lower-paid workers are cut. They call this a composition effect: average pay changes because of who remains in the hiring pool, not because actual pay rises. The article connects the trend to retailers pulling back on in-person roles as e-commerce grows and storefronts shrink, arguing that scarcer jobs let employers be pickier. 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The question raises a genuine open issue about how representative posting data is.","excerpt":"Economists call this a composition effect: The average salary is changing, not because the actual pay is rising, but because of who's left in the hiring pool."},{"dimension":"date","status":"pass","explanation":"The originalPublished instant is 2025-12-23, and the article's citation also gives December 23, 2025. The reading states the date at day precision. The page was modified on 2026-10-22, but the cited body text is consistently framed as 2025 ('Source: Revelio Labs, December 2025', 'compared to 2024'), so it is plainly part of the original. No hindsight framing or later events appear in the reading. 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