ADP Research · Jul 22, 2025
ADP Research on how the pandemic reshaped wages and the labor market
Markdown · JSON · Original source
ADP Research published this account on July 22, 2025. It argues that pandemic-era job losses and rehiring changed average wages partly by changing who was employed, rather than by employers broadly raising or cutting pay. When lower-paid workers lost jobs, average wages rose; as those workers returned, averages fell. ADP Research says leisure and hospitality showed this pattern especially strongly, while workers who changed jobs in the sector later saw large pay gains that cooled as the labor market stabilized. The account also connects changes in the age mix of the workforce to average wages: young workers’ departure likely lifted averages, and their return put downward pressure on them. ADP Research describes the pandemic as a catalyst for lasting changes in worker expectations and employer strategies. It forecasts that shrinking labor supply, labor shortages in some sectors and an aging workforce will keep wage growth from slowing to pre-pandemic levels. The account does not establish how those forces will develop or how long their effects will last.
Headline and summary by Escape Meridian, prepared by Luna from the attributed source. A source check is not independent confirmation of the source’s claims.
Original source
ADP Research · Article
Source details
Original source date: Jul 22, 2025 (2025-07-22).
Date basis: Date stated on the publisher’s page.
Added to Escape Meridian: 2026-11-13T01:03:23.650Z. First observed: 2026-10-31T05:30:01.558Z. Retrieved: 2026-10-31T05:31:48.332Z.
Referenced by
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No public references recorded here yet.
Limits
Text as retrieved on October 31, 2026; originally published July 22, 2025. The account gives a forecast about future wage growth, not evidence of how long the cited forces or their effects will persist.
Open question
How will labor supply, sector-specific labor shortages and the workforce’s age mix affect wage growth over ?
Source-stated
ADP Research says pandemic job losses raised average wages partly because lower-paid workers left employment, changing the composition of the workforce.
The increase was caused by a change in the composition of the work force. As employers cut lower-paid employees, average pay rose.
Source-stated
ADP Research says rehiring lower-paid workers brought average wages down, rather than employers broadly cutting pay.
Employers weren’t cutting pay en masse. Rather, as we saw in the early months of the pandemic, the composition of the employed population changed.
Source-stated
ADP Research says young workers’ departure likely contributed to rising average wages, while their return put downward pressure on averages.
Because young workers tend to earn less than older workers, their absence at the outset of the pandemic likely contributed to the rise in average wages.
Source-stated
ADP Research forecasts that labor supply, shortages in some sectors and workforce aging will keep wage growth from slowing to pre-pandemic levels.
A shrinking labor supply, persistent labor shortages in some sectors, and a rapidly aging work force will keep wage growth from slowing to pre-pandemic levels.
Source-stated
ADP Research characterizes the pandemic as a catalyst for changes in worker expectations and employer strategies.
From temporary disruptions to lasting shifts in worker expectations and employer strategies, today’s labor market is, in many ways, new.
Source and contributor context
ADP Research · Publisher
The publisher is identified here. No individual author has been inferred.
Source media
Media retrieval status: unchecked.
Terms and references
Reference context selected by Escape Meridian; separate from source evidence. Entity mentions do not establish authorship, involvement or endorsement.
TIME
TIME is a news magazine publishing reporting on world affairs, business, technology and the workers behind digital services.
Editorial provenance
Version 1. Publication ID: 719c5f57-d51e-645d-a9e8-789ba017bbe4.
Prepared by openai/gpt-6-luna; grounding review by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5.
Source check: uncertain by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5 on 2026-11-13T00:58:37.672Z. This checks fidelity to the source, not whether its claims are independently true.
Editorial selection: accept; reasons: bridge_admitted_by_model.
Observation: 6b202e92a3e2b0f0ad4d7ef4a8c28b0d6fb433bb3a991f85134b26665ccdfe56. Source text hash: 5bde56f98808af170edb0fb30ae1c617228412e0bf2c7f6cde19a735a8ac7d39.
Revision and source-check history
Version 1 · 2026-11-13T01:03:23.650Z
ADP Research on how the pandemic reshaped wages and the labor market
ADP Research published this account on July 22, 2025. It argues that pandemic-era job losses and rehiring changed average wages partly by changing who was employed, rather than by employers broadly raising or cutting pay. When lower-paid workers lost jobs, average wages rose; as those workers returned, averages fell. ADP Research says leisure and hospitality showed this pattern especially strongly, while workers who changed jobs in the sector later saw large pay gains that cooled as the labor market stabilized. The account also connects changes in the age mix of the workforce to average wages: young workers’ departure likely lifted averages, and their return put downward pressure on them. ADP Research describes the pandemic as a catalyst for lasting changes in worker expectations and employer strategies. It forecasts that shrinking labor supply, labor shortages in some sectors and an aging workforce will keep wage growth from slowing to pre-pandemic levels. The account does not establish how those forces will develop or how long their effects will last.
Original source
ADP Research · Article
Source details
Original source date: Jul 22, 2025 (2025-07-22).
Date basis: Date stated on the publisher’s page.
Added to Escape Meridian: 2026-11-13T01:03:23.650Z. First observed: 2026-10-31T05:30:01.558Z. Retrieved: 2026-10-31T05:31:48.332Z.
Limits
Text as retrieved on October 31, 2026; originally published July 22, 2025. The account gives a forecast about future wage growth, not evidence of how long the cited forces or their effects will persist.
Open question
How will labor supply, sector-specific labor shortages and the workforce’s age mix affect wage growth over ?
Source-stated
ADP Research says pandemic job losses raised average wages partly because lower-paid workers left employment, changing the composition of the workforce.
The increase was caused by a change in the composition of the work force. As employers cut lower-paid employees, average pay rose.
Source-stated
ADP Research says rehiring lower-paid workers brought average wages down, rather than employers broadly cutting pay.
Employers weren’t cutting pay en masse. Rather, as we saw in the early months of the pandemic, the composition of the employed population changed.
Source-stated
ADP Research says young workers’ departure likely contributed to rising average wages, while their return put downward pressure on averages.
Because young workers tend to earn less than older workers, their absence at the outset of the pandemic likely contributed to the rise in average wages.
Source-stated
ADP Research forecasts that labor supply, shortages in some sectors and workforce aging will keep wage growth from slowing to pre-pandemic levels.
A shrinking labor supply, persistent labor shortages in some sectors, and a rapidly aging work force will keep wage growth from slowing to pre-pandemic levels.
Source-stated
ADP Research characterizes the pandemic as a catalyst for changes in worker expectations and employer strategies.
From temporary disruptions to lasting shifts in worker expectations and employer strategies, today’s labor market is, in many ways, new.
Source and contributor context
ADP Research · Publisher
The publisher is identified here. No individual author has been inferred.
Source media
Media retrieval status: unchecked.
Terms and references
Reference context selected by Escape Meridian; separate from source evidence. Entity mentions do not establish authorship, involvement or endorsement.
TIME
TIME is a news magazine publishing reporting on world affairs, business, technology and the workers behind digital services.
Editorial provenance
Version 1. Publication ID: 719c5f57-d51e-645d-a9e8-789ba017bbe4.
Prepared by openai/gpt-6-luna; grounding review by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5.
Source check: uncertain by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5 on 2026-11-13T00:58:37.672Z. This checks fidelity to the source, not whether its claims are independently true.
Editorial selection: accept; reasons: bridge_admitted_by_model.
Observation: 6b202e92a3e2b0f0ad4d7ef4a8c28b0d6fb433bb3a991f85134b26665ccdfe56. Source text hash: 5bde56f98808af170edb0fb30ae1c617228412e0bf2c7f6cde19a735a8ac7d39.
uncertain · 2026-11-13T00:58:37.672Z · anthropic/claude-opus-5.5
Publication: 719c5f57-d51e-645d-a9e8-789ba017bbe4
attribution — pass: The reading attributes the analysis, claims and forecast to ADP Research, the publisher. The piece is one article with its own argument, not a listing. The text credits contributors Jeff Nezaj and Liv Wang, and the unnamed first-person author is consistent with an ADP Research staff piece.
In our latest issue of Today at Work, Jeff Nezaj, Liv Wang, and I show how the boom-and-bust drama of the pandemic is still being felt.
summary — pass: The title, summary and question match the source. They cover composition effects on average wages, the leisure and hospitality pattern, gains for job-changers that later cooled, age-mix effects, and the attributed forecast. Composition effects are explained in plain language. The question follows from the source's forecast without being leading. The source's 'rapidly aging' wording is softened to 'aging', which is a minor stylistic difference.
date — uncertain: The reading says ADP Research 'published this account on July 22, 2025', matching evidence.originalPublished. However, the source opens with a note saying this is a re-run of recent work while the column is on hiatus, and the URL ends in '-2'. The underlying work was likely first published earlier, so July 22, 2025 may be a republication date rather than first publication. The reading uses no later events and no hindsight framing, and it presents the forecast as a forecast.
Main Street Macro is on hiatus this week. In case you missed it, here’s another look at our recent work on the pandemic.
support — pass: Every claim is source-stated, and each excerpt matches the source exactly. The forecast is labeled as ADP Research's forecast, and the reading notes that the source does not establish how long the effects will persist. No benefits, costs or stakeholders are invented.
A shrinking labor supply, persistent labor shortages in some sectors, and a rapidly aging work force will keep wage growth from slowing to pre-pandemic levels.
media — pass: No media is selected, and no verified candidates were supplied. Omitting media is appropriate.
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TIME is a news magazine publishing reporting on world affairs, business, technology and the workers behind digital services.
Explore TIMETIME is a news magazine publishing reporting on world affairs, business, technology and the workers behind digital services.
Explore TIME