Federal Reserve Bank of New York · Sep 18, 2026
Del Negro and coauthors argue in Liberty Street Economics that growth remains subdued
Markdown · JSON · Original source
Published September 18, 2026, Marco Del Negro, Keshav Dogra, Elena Elbarmi, Donggyu Lee, Michael Pham, and Elizabeth Wright update the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s DSGE model forecast. They stress that it is an input to Research staff’s forecasting process, not an official New York Fed forecast. The authors say the model expects similar growth and slightly more persistent inflation than in June. They describe it as pessimistic on growth, repeatedly surprised when the economy outperforms its expectations. Assuming the Philadelphia Fed’s Survey of Professional Forecasters projection is correct, the model attributes a likely forecast miss to stronger financial conditions and the growth effect of an AI-related investment boom, captured by MEI shocks. The authors also connect its subdued growth outlook partly to more restrictive expected monetary policy and lower expected growth. The authors say inflation is expected to return toward the FOMC’s long-run goal more slowly than in June, partly because lower total factor productivity growth raises inflation. The forecast uses survey projections and other inputs; how closely it will match subsequent outcomes remains unknown.
Headline and summary by Escape Meridian, prepared by Luna from the attributed source. A source check is not independent confirmation of the source’s claims.
Original source
Federal Reserve Bank of New York · Article
Source details
Original source date: Sep 18, 2026 (2026-09-18T13:00:00.000Z).
Date basis: Date supplied by the publisher’s feed.
Added to Escape Meridian: 2026-11-14T07:33:25.289Z. First observed: 2026-10-29T11:34:08.566Z. Retrieved: 2026-10-29T11:35:39.022Z.
Referenced by
Recorded citations and public file attachments. A reference alone does not establish agreement or influence.
No public references recorded here yet.
Limits
The authors say the forecast uses data released through 2026:Q2 and adds 2026:Q3 inputs that include survey projections and expectations; outcomes are not established by this forecast. Text as retrieved on October 29, 2026; originally published September 18, 2026.
Open question
How closely will the model’s growth and inflation forecasts match subsequent outcomes, given its stated sensitivity to survey projections and assumptions about financial conditions and productivity?
Source-stated
The authors say the model expects similar growth and slightly more persistent inflation than in its June forecast; its r* forecasts are lower for 2026 and higher for the remainder of the forecast horizon.
The New York Fed DSGE model expects similar growth, and slightly more persistent inflation, compared to its forecasts in June. r* forecasts are slightly lower for 2026 but higher for the remainder of the forecast horizon.
Source-stated
The authors describe the model as pessimistic on growth and say it has been surprised when the economy turned out stronger than it expected.
The model remains pessimistic on growth, and keeps being surprised when the economy turns out to be stronger than it expected.
Source-stated
On the assumption that the Philadelphia Fed’s Survey of Professional Forecasters projection is correct, the authors attribute a likely forecast miss to stronger financial conditions than expected and the positive growth effect of an AI-related investment boom, captured by MEI shocks.
The model attributes this likely forecast miss (under the assumption that the SPF projection will be correct) to more buoyant financial conditions than expected and to the positive growth effect of the AI-related boom in investment, as captured by MEI (marginal efficiency of investment) shocks.
Source-stated
The authors say the model expects inflation to return toward the FOMC’s long-run goal more slowly than in June, partly because lower TFP growth results in higher inflation.
the model now expects inflation to revert toward the FOMC’s long-run goal of 2 percent more slowly than it did in June, in part because lower TFP growth results in higher inflation.
Source-stated
The authors state that the model forecast is an input to Research staff’s overall forecasting process, not an official New York Fed forecast.
The DSGE model forecast is not an official New York Fed forecast, but only an input to the Research staff’s overall forecasting process.
Source and contributor context
Federal Reserve Bank of New York · Publisher
The publisher is identified here. No individual author has been inferred.
Source media
Media retrieval status: unchecked.
Terms and references
Reference context selected by Escape Meridian; separate from source evidence. Entity mentions do not establish authorship, involvement or endorsement.
Total factor productivity
Growth in output not explained by more workers or more equipment, often read as better methods or technology.
Editorial provenance
Version 1. Publication ID: 46a51f6c-9027-a85c-2915-0c0a7b1aab8d.
Prepared by openai/gpt-6-luna; grounding review by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5.
Source check: uncertain by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5 on 2026-11-14T07:29:33.025Z. This checks fidelity to the source, not whether its claims are independently true.
Editorial selection: accept; reasons: bridge_admitted_by_model.
Observation: da631ef816352c5807501f9773b34151f9508cc7cba59a68c6758050a6d669ed. Source text hash: 6c82f9b965d35da851661af6df7856dd8ed32488d24c1bbf12d708c3a576feb6.
Revision and source-check history
Version 1 · 2026-11-14T07:33:25.289Z
Del Negro and coauthors argue in Liberty Street Economics that growth remains subdued
Published September 18, 2026, Marco Del Negro, Keshav Dogra, Elena Elbarmi, Donggyu Lee, Michael Pham, and Elizabeth Wright update the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s DSGE model forecast. They stress that it is an input to Research staff’s forecasting process, not an official New York Fed forecast. The authors say the model expects similar growth and slightly more persistent inflation than in June. They describe it as pessimistic on growth, repeatedly surprised when the economy outperforms its expectations. Assuming the Philadelphia Fed’s Survey of Professional Forecasters projection is correct, the model attributes a likely forecast miss to stronger financial conditions and the growth effect of an AI-related investment boom, captured by MEI shocks. The authors also connect its subdued growth outlook partly to more restrictive expected monetary policy and lower expected growth. The authors say inflation is expected to return toward the FOMC’s long-run goal more slowly than in June, partly because lower total factor productivity growth raises inflation. The forecast uses survey projections and other inputs; how closely it will match subsequent outcomes remains unknown.
Original source
Federal Reserve Bank of New York · Article
Source details
Original source date: Sep 18, 2026 (2026-09-18T13:00:00.000Z).
Date basis: Date supplied by the publisher’s feed.
Added to Escape Meridian: 2026-11-14T07:33:25.289Z. First observed: 2026-10-29T11:34:08.566Z. Retrieved: 2026-10-29T11:35:39.022Z.
Limits
The authors say the forecast uses data released through 2026:Q2 and adds 2026:Q3 inputs that include survey projections and expectations; outcomes are not established by this forecast. Text as retrieved on October 29, 2026; originally published September 18, 2026.
Open question
How closely will the model’s growth and inflation forecasts match subsequent outcomes, given its stated sensitivity to survey projections and assumptions about financial conditions and productivity?
Source-stated
The authors say the model expects similar growth and slightly more persistent inflation than in its June forecast; its r* forecasts are lower for 2026 and higher for the remainder of the forecast horizon.
The New York Fed DSGE model expects similar growth, and slightly more persistent inflation, compared to its forecasts in June. r* forecasts are slightly lower for 2026 but higher for the remainder of the forecast horizon.
Source-stated
The authors describe the model as pessimistic on growth and say it has been surprised when the economy turned out stronger than it expected.
The model remains pessimistic on growth, and keeps being surprised when the economy turns out to be stronger than it expected.
Source-stated
On the assumption that the Philadelphia Fed’s Survey of Professional Forecasters projection is correct, the authors attribute a likely forecast miss to stronger financial conditions than expected and the positive growth effect of an AI-related investment boom, captured by MEI shocks.
The model attributes this likely forecast miss (under the assumption that the SPF projection will be correct) to more buoyant financial conditions than expected and to the positive growth effect of the AI-related boom in investment, as captured by MEI (marginal efficiency of investment) shocks.
Source-stated
The authors say the model expects inflation to return toward the FOMC’s long-run goal more slowly than in June, partly because lower TFP growth results in higher inflation.
the model now expects inflation to revert toward the FOMC’s long-run goal of 2 percent more slowly than it did in June, in part because lower TFP growth results in higher inflation.
Source-stated
The authors state that the model forecast is an input to Research staff’s overall forecasting process, not an official New York Fed forecast.
The DSGE model forecast is not an official New York Fed forecast, but only an input to the Research staff’s overall forecasting process.
Source and contributor context
Federal Reserve Bank of New York · Publisher
The publisher is identified here. No individual author has been inferred.
Source media
Media retrieval status: unchecked.
Terms and references
Reference context selected by Escape Meridian; separate from source evidence. Entity mentions do not establish authorship, involvement or endorsement.
Total factor productivity
Growth in output not explained by more workers or more equipment, often read as better methods or technology.
Editorial provenance
Version 1. Publication ID: 46a51f6c-9027-a85c-2915-0c0a7b1aab8d.
Prepared by openai/gpt-6-luna; grounding review by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5.
Source check: uncertain by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5 on 2026-11-14T07:29:33.025Z. This checks fidelity to the source, not whether its claims are independently true.
Editorial selection: accept; reasons: bridge_admitted_by_model.
Observation: da631ef816352c5807501f9773b34151f9508cc7cba59a68c6758050a6d669ed. Source text hash: 6c82f9b965d35da851661af6df7856dd8ed32488d24c1bbf12d708c3a576feb6.
uncertain · 2026-11-14T07:29:33.025Z · anthropic/claude-opus-5.5
Publication: 46a51f6c-9027-a85c-2915-0c0a7b1aab8d
attribution — pass: The reading correctly names the six authors, Liberty Street Economics, and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. It keeps the model forecast attributed and preserves the disclaimer that it is not an official New York Fed forecast.
Marco Del Negro, Keshav Dogra, Elena Elbarmi, Donggyu Lee, Michael Pham, and Elizabeth Wright
summary — uncertain: Central jargon is unexplained for a general reader. The page defines only TFP. The reading never says what a DSGE model is, never expands MEI as marginal efficiency of investment, and does not explain FOMC or r*, which appears in claims. Repair: briefly expand and gloss DSGE (an economy-wide forecasting model), MEI, FOMC and r*, or add them to the term library. The question cites the model's "stated sensitivity" to survey projections, but the source only lists surveys as inputs. Repair: rephrase as "given its reliance on survey inputs".
as captured by MEI (marginal efficiency of investment) shocks
date — pass: The reading's September 18, 2026 date matches the dateline and the UTC day of originalPublished. This is a publisher page, so no archive disclosure is required. The forecasts are presented as projections, not outcomes, and there is no hindsight framing.
September 18, 2026
support — pass: Each claim matches its excerpt. This covers similar growth with more persistent inflation, the pessimism and repeated surprises, the SPF-conditional attribution of the miss to financial conditions and the AI-related investment boom, slower inflation reversion due to lower TFP, and the not-official caveat. Claim 3 says the authors attribute the miss where the source says the model does, a minor difference that the summary handles correctly.
The model attributes this likely forecast miss (under the assumption that the SPF projection will be correct)
media — pass: No media was selected and no verified candidates were supplied, so there is nothing to misidentify.
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Send a correction or an opposing source with this reading’s URL. Disagreement and uncertainty can remain unresolved.
Growth in output not explained by more workers or more equipment, often read as better methods or technology.
Definition referenceGrowth in output not explained by more workers or more equipment, often read as better methods or technology.
Definition reference