Federal Reserve Bank of New York · Jun 22, 2026
Del Negro and coauthors argue in Liberty Street Economics that inflation forecasts rise
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The authors published this forecast on June 22, 2026. Marco Del Negro, Keshav Dogra, Elena Elbarmi, Donggyu Lee, and Michael Pham report that the New York Fed DSGE model raised its inflation forecasts for 2026, conditional on the SPF forecast turning out to be correct. The model attributes its forecast error to mark-up shocks, which may capture tariff and energy effects, and views their impact as vanishing by year-end. It sees AI-related investment supporting output, especially in 2026, while adverse mark-up shocks weigh on future growth. The authors also stress that this model forecast is not an official New York Fed forecast; it is an input to the Research staff’s overall forecasting process. Whether the SPF forecast is correct and whether the shocks fade as the model expects remain unknown.
Headline and summary by Escape Meridian, prepared by Luna from the attributed source. A source check is not independent confirmation of the source’s claims.
Original source
Federal Reserve Bank of New York · Article
Source details
Original source date: Jun 22, 2026 (2026-06-22T13:00:00.000Z).
Date basis: Date supplied by the publisher’s feed.
Added to Escape Meridian: 2026-11-06T12:03:23.469Z. First observed: 2026-10-30T11:38:01.479Z. Retrieved: 2026-10-30T11:40:10.705Z.
Referenced by
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Limits
Text as retrieved on October 30, 2026; originally published June 22, 2026. The forecast is a model output and, as the authors note, is not an official New York Fed forecast. Its inflation adjustment is conditional on the SPF forecast turning out to be correct. The retrieved text supplies no later outcome against which to assess these forecasts.
Open question
If the SPF forecast turns out to be correct, will the model’s mark-up shocks fade by year-end as it expects?
Source-stated
The authors say the model’s inflation forecasts rose for 2026 after the SPF forecast for the second quarter exceeded what the model had expected in March.
In light of this forecast miss (if the SPF turns out to be correct), the model revised its inflation forecasts upward in 2026, from 2.4 to 3.1 percent.
Source-stated
The authors say the model attributes the inflation forecast error to mark-up shocks that may reflect tariff and energy effects, and expects their impact to vanish by year-end.
The DSGE attributes the forecast error to mark-up shocks, which may capture the effects of both tariff and energy shocks. The model views the impact of these shocks as vanishing by the end of the year
Source-stated
The authors say the model sees AI-related investment supporting output, while adverse mark-up shocks weigh on future growth.
The model does see the positive growth effect of the AI-related boom in investment—positive MEI (marginal efficiency of investment) shocks push output up, especially in 2026—but also believes that the adverse markup shocks will push down growth in the future.
Source-stated
The authors state that the DSGE model forecast is not an official New York Fed forecast, but an input to the Research staff’s forecasting process.
The DSGE model forecast is not an official New York Fed forecast, but only an input to the Research staff’s overall forecasting process.
Source-stated
The forecast update is dated June 22, 2026.
June 22, 2026 The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—June 2026
Source and contributor context
Federal Reserve Bank of New York · Publisher
The publisher is identified here. No individual author has been inferred.
Source media
Media retrieval status: unchecked.
Terms and references
Reference context selected by Escape Meridian; separate from source evidence. Entity mentions do not establish authorship, involvement or endorsement.
Editorial provenance
Version 1. Publication ID: 65b819bd-e77a-52e4-10de-8756f01d021f.
Prepared by openai/gpt-6-luna; grounding review by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5.
Source check: uncertain by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5 on 2026-11-06T11:59:04.675Z. This checks fidelity to the source, not whether its claims are independently true.
Editorial selection: accept; reasons: bridge_admitted_by_model.
Observation: e147fe8a0b626df0811b639f491d1f7f33193b1012320cf1a5eeb66ec06ac2a6. Source text hash: b1fdc3cd5d2b5444a57cf01a2c018fd5d5426ae88cc2d42510db09bb019de13b.
Revision and source-check history
Version 1 · 2026-11-06T12:03:23.469Z
Del Negro and coauthors argue in Liberty Street Economics that inflation forecasts rise
The authors published this forecast on June 22, 2026. Marco Del Negro, Keshav Dogra, Elena Elbarmi, Donggyu Lee, and Michael Pham report that the New York Fed DSGE model raised its inflation forecasts for 2026, conditional on the SPF forecast turning out to be correct. The model attributes its forecast error to mark-up shocks, which may capture tariff and energy effects, and views their impact as vanishing by year-end. It sees AI-related investment supporting output, especially in 2026, while adverse mark-up shocks weigh on future growth. The authors also stress that this model forecast is not an official New York Fed forecast; it is an input to the Research staff’s overall forecasting process. Whether the SPF forecast is correct and whether the shocks fade as the model expects remain unknown.
Original source
Federal Reserve Bank of New York · Article
Source details
Original source date: Jun 22, 2026 (2026-06-22T13:00:00.000Z).
Date basis: Date supplied by the publisher’s feed.
Added to Escape Meridian: 2026-11-06T12:03:23.469Z. First observed: 2026-10-30T11:38:01.479Z. Retrieved: 2026-10-30T11:40:10.705Z.
Limits
Text as retrieved on October 30, 2026; originally published June 22, 2026. The forecast is a model output and, as the authors note, is not an official New York Fed forecast. Its inflation adjustment is conditional on the SPF forecast turning out to be correct. The retrieved text supplies no later outcome against which to assess these forecasts.
Open question
If the SPF forecast turns out to be correct, will the model’s mark-up shocks fade by year-end as it expects?
Source-stated
The authors say the model’s inflation forecasts rose for 2026 after the SPF forecast for the second quarter exceeded what the model had expected in March.
In light of this forecast miss (if the SPF turns out to be correct), the model revised its inflation forecasts upward in 2026, from 2.4 to 3.1 percent.
Source-stated
The authors say the model attributes the inflation forecast error to mark-up shocks that may reflect tariff and energy effects, and expects their impact to vanish by year-end.
The DSGE attributes the forecast error to mark-up shocks, which may capture the effects of both tariff and energy shocks. The model views the impact of these shocks as vanishing by the end of the year
Source-stated
The authors say the model sees AI-related investment supporting output, while adverse mark-up shocks weigh on future growth.
The model does see the positive growth effect of the AI-related boom in investment—positive MEI (marginal efficiency of investment) shocks push output up, especially in 2026—but also believes that the adverse markup shocks will push down growth in the future.
Source-stated
The authors state that the DSGE model forecast is not an official New York Fed forecast, but an input to the Research staff’s forecasting process.
The DSGE model forecast is not an official New York Fed forecast, but only an input to the Research staff’s overall forecasting process.
Source-stated
The forecast update is dated June 22, 2026.
June 22, 2026 The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—June 2026
Source and contributor context
Federal Reserve Bank of New York · Publisher
The publisher is identified here. No individual author has been inferred.
Source media
Media retrieval status: unchecked.
Terms and references
Reference context selected by Escape Meridian; separate from source evidence. Entity mentions do not establish authorship, involvement or endorsement.
Editorial provenance
Version 1. Publication ID: 65b819bd-e77a-52e4-10de-8756f01d021f.
Prepared by openai/gpt-6-luna; grounding review by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5.
Source check: uncertain by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5 on 2026-11-06T11:59:04.675Z. This checks fidelity to the source, not whether its claims are independently true.
Editorial selection: accept; reasons: bridge_admitted_by_model.
Observation: e147fe8a0b626df0811b639f491d1f7f33193b1012320cf1a5eeb66ec06ac2a6. Source text hash: b1fdc3cd5d2b5444a57cf01a2c018fd5d5426ae88cc2d42510db09bb019de13b.
uncertain · 2026-11-06T11:59:04.675Z · anthropic/claude-opus-5.5
Publication: 65b819bd-e77a-52e4-10de-8756f01d021f
attribution — pass: The reading correctly attributes the forecast to the five named authors in Liberty Street Economics. It keeps their caveat that the DSGE output is not an official New York Fed forecast. Model views are presented as model views, not established fact.
Marco Del Negro, Keshav Dogra, Elena Elbarmi, Donggyu Lee, and Michael Pham
summary — uncertain: Central terms go unexplained and the definitions list is empty. DSGE is never spelled out or described as an economic model, and SPF (Survey of Professional Forecasters) is never expanded. A general reader cannot tell what these are. Mark-up shocks and the AI link via MEI shocks are also left opaque. The summary also says the model raised its forecast conditional on the SPF being correct. In fact the model did revise, in light of an SPF-implied miss. The smallest repair is to expand DSGE and SPF, briefly gloss mark-up shocks, and say the revision responds to the SPF-implied miss.
Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model
date — pass: originalPublished (2026-06-22) matches the post's dateline and citation. The page modifiedAt is the same day, and no editedAfterPublication flag is set. The reading presents forecasts as the model's forecasts, not outcomes, and uses no hindsight. This is a publisher page, so no archive disclosure is needed. The retrieval date is noted in the limitations.
June 22, 2026 The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—June 2026
support — pass: Each claim is supported by a verbatim excerpt. These cover the 2026 inflation revision after the SPF-implied miss, mark-up shocks possibly capturing tariff and energy effects and vanishing by year-end, AI-related investment boosting output while markup shocks weigh on growth, and the non-official status. The question follows from the source and is not leading.
The model views the impact of these shocks as vanishing by the end of the year and hence the inflation forecasts are largely unchanged throughout the rest of the forecast horizon.
media — pass: No media was selected and no verified media candidates were supplied, so there is nothing to misidentify.
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