Federal Reserve Bank of New York · Mar 20, 2026
Del Negro and coauthors report in Liberty Street Economics on higher growth forecasts
Markdown · JSON · Original source
Published March 20, 2026, Marco Del Negro, Ibrahima Diagne, Keshav Dogra, Elena Elbarmi, Donggyu Lee, and Michael Pham report that the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s DSGE model expects stronger growth in 2026 and more persistent inflation than it did in December 2025. They attribute the higher growth projection mainly to investment-related shocks, which they say may capture the strength of AI-related investment. They attribute the higher inflation projection to cost-push shocks, possibly capturing tariff effects, and other factors. The model’s projections for the short-run real natural rate of interest are essentially unchanged. Because its inflation projections are higher, the model views the current policy path as slightly more accommodative than in December. The authors emphasize that this is a model forecast, not an official New York Fed forecast. It was produced before the start of the Iran war and does not incorporate that war’s economic impact. The forecast also uses data and survey-based inputs, including a nowcast for the first quarter of 2026. How much of the model’s projected growth and inflation will materialize remains unknown.
Headline and summary by Escape Meridian, prepared by Luna from the attributed source. A source check is not independent confirmation of the source’s claims.
Original source
Federal Reserve Bank of New York · Article
Source details
Original source date: Mar 20, 2026 (2026-03-20T13:00:00.000Z).
Date basis: Date supplied by the publisher’s feed.
Added to Escape Meridian: 2026-11-07T19:08:23.327Z. First observed: 2026-10-30T04:28:01.732Z. Retrieved: 2026-10-30T04:29:57.487Z.
Referenced by
Recorded citations and public file attachments. A reference alone does not establish agreement or influence.
No public references recorded here yet.
Limits
Text as retrieved on October 30, 2026; originally published March 20, 2026. The authors state that the forecast was produced before the start of the Iran war and does not incorporate its economic impact. The growth and inflation figures are model projections, not observed outcomes.
Open question
How will the model’s growth and inflation projections compare with the data as they become available?
Source-stated
The authors say the model expects stronger growth in 2026 and more persistent inflation than it forecast in December 2025.
To summarize, growth in 2026 is expected to be more robust, and inflation more persistent, than predicted in December.
Source-stated
The authors attribute higher growth mainly to investment-related shocks, which they say may capture the strength of AI-related investment.
These shocks, which in the DSGE lingo are known as MEI (marginal efficiency of investment) shocks, arguably capture the strength of AI-related investment in the second half of 2025 and the beginning of 2026.
Source-stated
The authors attribute higher inflation projections to cost-push shocks, which possibly capture tariff effects, and other factors affecting inflation.
The DSGE attributes this forecast error to cost-push shocks, which possibly capture the effects of tariffs, as well as other idiosyncratic factors affecting inflation.
Source-stated
The authors say this model forecast is not an official New York Fed forecast and does not incorporate the economic impact of the Iran war.
The DSGE model forecast is not an official New York Fed forecast, but only an input to the Research staff’s overall forecasting process.
Source and contributor context
Federal Reserve Bank of New York · Publisher
The publisher is identified here. No individual author has been inferred.
Source media
Media retrieval status: unchecked.
Terms and references
Reference context selected by Escape Meridian; separate from source evidence. Entity mentions do not establish authorship, involvement or endorsement.
Editorial provenance
Version 1. Publication ID: 1c33ff69-5181-81a9-1b82-e0713f6e64d0.
Prepared by openai/gpt-6-luna; grounding review by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5.
Source check: uncertain by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5 on 2026-11-07T19:03:44.802Z. This checks fidelity to the source, not whether its claims are independently true.
Editorial selection: accept; reasons: bridge_admitted_by_model.
Observation: d6768bf86b4169d8cadac0e26c8cae317af7b26edfb7209d4e948563efa25020. Source text hash: 969b7be248647f8dba750746e3d0a78c746df18dfa5b05562bd99149d9051f27.
Revision and source-check history
Version 1 · 2026-11-07T19:08:23.327Z
Del Negro and coauthors report in Liberty Street Economics on higher growth forecasts
Published March 20, 2026, Marco Del Negro, Ibrahima Diagne, Keshav Dogra, Elena Elbarmi, Donggyu Lee, and Michael Pham report that the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s DSGE model expects stronger growth in 2026 and more persistent inflation than it did in December 2025. They attribute the higher growth projection mainly to investment-related shocks, which they say may capture the strength of AI-related investment. They attribute the higher inflation projection to cost-push shocks, possibly capturing tariff effects, and other factors. The model’s projections for the short-run real natural rate of interest are essentially unchanged. Because its inflation projections are higher, the model views the current policy path as slightly more accommodative than in December. The authors emphasize that this is a model forecast, not an official New York Fed forecast. It was produced before the start of the Iran war and does not incorporate that war’s economic impact. The forecast also uses data and survey-based inputs, including a nowcast for the first quarter of 2026. How much of the model’s projected growth and inflation will materialize remains unknown.
Original source
Federal Reserve Bank of New York · Article
Source details
Original source date: Mar 20, 2026 (2026-03-20T13:00:00.000Z).
Date basis: Date supplied by the publisher’s feed.
Added to Escape Meridian: 2026-11-07T19:08:23.327Z. First observed: 2026-10-30T04:28:01.732Z. Retrieved: 2026-10-30T04:29:57.487Z.
Limits
Text as retrieved on October 30, 2026; originally published March 20, 2026. The authors state that the forecast was produced before the start of the Iran war and does not incorporate its economic impact. The growth and inflation figures are model projections, not observed outcomes.
Open question
How will the model’s growth and inflation projections compare with the data as they become available?
Source-stated
The authors say the model expects stronger growth in 2026 and more persistent inflation than it forecast in December 2025.
To summarize, growth in 2026 is expected to be more robust, and inflation more persistent, than predicted in December.
Source-stated
The authors attribute higher growth mainly to investment-related shocks, which they say may capture the strength of AI-related investment.
These shocks, which in the DSGE lingo are known as MEI (marginal efficiency of investment) shocks, arguably capture the strength of AI-related investment in the second half of 2025 and the beginning of 2026.
Source-stated
The authors attribute higher inflation projections to cost-push shocks, which possibly capture tariff effects, and other factors affecting inflation.
The DSGE attributes this forecast error to cost-push shocks, which possibly capture the effects of tariffs, as well as other idiosyncratic factors affecting inflation.
Source-stated
The authors say this model forecast is not an official New York Fed forecast and does not incorporate the economic impact of the Iran war.
The DSGE model forecast is not an official New York Fed forecast, but only an input to the Research staff’s overall forecasting process.
Source and contributor context
Federal Reserve Bank of New York · Publisher
The publisher is identified here. No individual author has been inferred.
Source media
Media retrieval status: unchecked.
Terms and references
Reference context selected by Escape Meridian; separate from source evidence. Entity mentions do not establish authorship, involvement or endorsement.
Editorial provenance
Version 1. Publication ID: 1c33ff69-5181-81a9-1b82-e0713f6e64d0.
Prepared by openai/gpt-6-luna; grounding review by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5.
Source check: uncertain by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5 on 2026-11-07T19:03:44.802Z. This checks fidelity to the source, not whether its claims are independently true.
Editorial selection: accept; reasons: bridge_admitted_by_model.
Observation: d6768bf86b4169d8cadac0e26c8cae317af7b26edfb7209d4e948563efa25020. Source text hash: 969b7be248647f8dba750746e3d0a78c746df18dfa5b05562bd99149d9051f27.
uncertain · 2026-11-07T19:03:44.802Z · anthropic/claude-opus-5.5
Publication: 1c33ff69-5181-81a9-1b82-e0713f6e64d0
attribution — pass: The reading correctly attributes the post to the six named New York Fed authors writing in Liberty Street Economics. It keeps the projections attributed to the model and the authors, and preserves the note that this is not an official New York Fed forecast.
Marco Del Negro, Ibrahima Diagne, Keshav Dogra, Elena Elbarmi, Donggyu Lee, and Michael Pham
summary — uncertain: Several central terms are left unexplained for a general reader, and the definitions list is empty. These include DSGE (dynamic stochastic general equilibrium) model, cost-push shocks, short-run real natural rate of interest (r*) and policy being more accommodative. The summary also omits the concrete revision (2026 growth 1.0 vs 0.6 percent; core PCE 2.4 vs 1.9 percent). Without these explanations, readers may not see what changed or why the AI-investment link matters. Smallest repair: add tooltip definitions for DSGE, cost-push shock, r* and accommodative, and state the headline numbers.
the model revised upward its projections for growth in 2026 by nearly half a percentage point (1.0 versus 0.6 percent)
date — pass: March 20, 2026 matches originalPublished (2026-03-20T13:00Z) and the source dateline. The Iran war caveat comes from the source itself. No hindsight framing appears, projections stay forecasts, and the page is a publisher page rather than an archive copy.
March 20, 2026
support — pass: Each claim is grounded in the source text. This includes the investment (MEI) shocks that arguably capture AI-related investment, and the cost-push shocks possibly reflecting tariffs. It also covers the unchanged r* and the more accommodative policy view, which the source ties to an unchanged FFR path and higher inflation projections. The Iran war caveat is source-stated. The closing unknown is appropriately conditional. Nothing goes beyond the evidence.
Since projections for the path of the nominal FFR are also unchanged relative to December, but inflation projections are higher, the model views the current path of policy as slightly more accommodative
media — pass: No media was selected, and no verified candidate media were supplied, so there is no media identity or relevance issue.
Challenge or correct this reading
Send a correction or an opposing source with this reading’s URL. Disagreement and uncertainty can remain unresolved.