Haughwout and co-authors examine mortgage delinquencies in Liberty Street Economics

Haughwout and co-authors examine mortgage delinquencies in Liberty Street Economics

Published February 10, 2026, Andrew F. Haughwout, Donghoon Lee, Daniel Mangrum, Joelle W. Scally, and Wilbert van der Klaauw report that mortgage delinquencies have risen fastest in lower-income zip codes. Their analysis uses anonymous credit report data from Equifax and groups borrowers by zip-code income. They find that worsening local labor markets are associated with rising mortgage delinquency, while the relationship with home-price changes is weaker. The authors emphasize that mortgages overall continue to perform well by historical standards; they say about 1.3 percent of mortgage balances became seriously delinquent during 2025, compared with rates exceeding 8 percent around the Great Recession. Their central concern is that delinquencies are growing quickly in lower-income areas and places with worsening labor or housing market conditions. The analysis describes associations, not proof that local unemployment or home prices caused borrowers to fall behind. How much of the differing mortgage delinquency trends reflects local labor and housing conditions, rather than other factors?

Publication: f54011e7-1f5d-0b48-25c1-3f4ccd215015

attribution — pass: The reading correctly attributes the analysis to the five named New York Fed authors writing in Liberty Street Economics. The retrieved text is a single analytical post, not a listing. Source claims are kept as the authors' findings.

Andrew F. Haughwout, Donghoon Lee, Daniel Mangrum, Joelle W. Scally, and Wilbert van der Klaauw

summary — pass: The summary leads with the actors and the main finding, then gives the labor-market and home-price associations, the historical-context caveat and the authors' central concern. Delinquency is effectively explained as borrowers falling behind. Optional repair: the summary could note the authors' point that the rise follows artificially low pandemic-era levels, and that the 1.3 percent share resembles averages outside the Great Recession period. Its omission does not distort the meaning. The question follows from the correlational evidence.

have risen recently only after having reached artificially low levels during the pandemic due to the stimulus and forbearances available to borrowers at that time

date — pass: The reading gives February 10, 2026. This matches both the originalPublished instant's UTC day and the source dateline. No hindsight framing or later events appear in the reading. The evidence kind is a publisher page, so no archive disclosure is needed.

February 10, 2026

support — pass: Each claim matches the cited source text: the lowest-income quartile surge, the weaker home-price relationship versus unemployment, the 1.3 percent figure against the more than 8 percent Great Recession peak, and the Equifax data source. The limitation that the findings show association, not causation, is consistent with the authors' own correlation language.

The chart below presents a binned scatter plot that reveals a correlation between local labor market deterioration and rising mortgage delinquency rates.

media — pass: No media is selected, and no verified media candidates were supplied, so nothing is misidentified or invented.