Federal Reserve Bank of New York · May 27, 2026
Kosar, Mehta and van der Klaauw argue in Liberty Street Economics that food insecurity tracks pessimism
Markdown · JSON · Original source
In a May 27, 2026 post, Gizem Kosar, Ishva Mehta, and Wilbert van der Klaauw use Survey of Consumer Expectations data to examine food insecurity and consumer pessimism. They report increases in food hardship and related financial strain, generally larger among lower-income and lower-educated households and households with children. Respondents reporting not enough food, food donations, or SNAP receipt were more pessimistic about their finances and reported larger declines in expected job-finding chances. The authors say food insecurity is associated with worsening sentiment, but the association is not necessarily causal, and food insecurity is not the only factor: sentiment also fell among people not reporting these incidents. They argue that the association, alongside rising food insecurity, may help explain unusually low consumer sentiment even as hard economic data paint a more positive picture. What accounts for the decline in sentiment among respondents who did not report food insecurity remains unknown from this analysis. The authors’ survey measures are related to, but differ from, the USDA’s official measure of food insecurity.
Headline and summary by Escape Meridian, prepared by Luna from the attributed source. A source check is not independent confirmation of the source’s claims.
Original source
Federal Reserve Bank of New York · Article
Source details
Original source date: May 27, 2026 (2026-05-27T14:30:00.000Z).
Date basis: Date supplied by the publisher’s feed.
Added to Escape Meridian: 2026-11-07T00:38:23.187Z. First observed: 2026-10-30T18:35:58.326Z. Retrieved: 2026-10-30T18:38:01.412Z.
Referenced by
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No public references recorded here yet.
Limits
Text as retrieved on October 30, 2026; originally published May 27, 2026. The authors say the association between food insecurity and consumer pessimism is not necessarily causal. The authors’ survey measures are related to, but differ from, the USDA’s official survey measure of food insecurity.
Open question
What accounts for the decline in sentiment among respondents who did not report food insecurity?
Source-stated
The authors report increased food insecurity and related strains, with generally larger increases among lower-income and lower-educated households and households with children.
The increases were mostly broad-based across race, age, income, and education groups, but were generally larger for non-whites, lower-income and lower-educated households, and households with children
Source-stated
The authors find that respondents reporting food insufficiency or SNAP receipt had lower and more rapidly declining expectations of being better off financially.
among those reporting incidents of food insufficiency (not enough food, received food donations) and SNAP receipt, there is a lower, and more rapidly declining, net share of respondents expecting to be better versus worse off financially
Source-stated
The authors report larger reductions in expected job-finding chances among respondents reporting food needs or SNAP receipt.
we also find considerably larger reductions in the expected job-finding rate (measured as the probability of finding a job in the next three months if one’s current job is lost) for those reporting food needs or SNAP receipt.
Source-stated
The authors say the association may help explain low consumer sentiment, while noting it is not necessarily causal and food insecurity is not the only factor.
While not necessarily causal, the observed positive association between food insecurity and overall consumer pessimism, together with the increase in the incidence of food insecurity
Source-stated
The authors report a decline in financial expectations among respondents who did not report food-insecurity incidents, followed by a partial reversal.
even among those not reporting these incidents of food insecurity we find a sizable decline between 2020 and October 2025 in the net share of respondents expecting to be better versus worse off a year from now, though this decline was followed by partial reversal from October 2025 to February 2026.
Source-stated
The authors say their food-insecurity measures differ from the USDA’s official survey measure.
our measures differ from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) official survey measure of food insecurity
Source and contributor context
Federal Reserve Bank of New York · Publisher
The publisher is identified here. No individual author has been inferred.
Source media
Media retrieval status: unchecked.
Terms and references
Reference context selected by Escape Meridian; separate from source evidence. Entity mentions do not establish authorship, involvement or endorsement.
Editorial provenance
Version 1. Publication ID: 98cf44e6-17fa-f9be-f970-b6150d17847e.
Prepared by openai/gpt-6-luna; grounding review by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5.
Source check: uncertain by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5 on 2026-11-07T00:33:42.094Z. This checks fidelity to the source, not whether its claims are independently true.
Editorial selection: accept; reasons: bridge_admitted_by_model.
Observation: ea3d3c544b6169fc8c9c5baab2f1b30d45c5b15cbf00e4ce08ec3bfd70209c24. Source text hash: 925f3e36a919b149d2ef8f5c5a58be3470bd52cc39b5b34fa69d5d8196923482.
Revision and source-check history
Version 1 · 2026-11-07T00:38:23.187Z
Kosar, Mehta and van der Klaauw argue in Liberty Street Economics that food insecurity tracks pessimism
In a May 27, 2026 post, Gizem Kosar, Ishva Mehta, and Wilbert van der Klaauw use Survey of Consumer Expectations data to examine food insecurity and consumer pessimism. They report increases in food hardship and related financial strain, generally larger among lower-income and lower-educated households and households with children. Respondents reporting not enough food, food donations, or SNAP receipt were more pessimistic about their finances and reported larger declines in expected job-finding chances. The authors say food insecurity is associated with worsening sentiment, but the association is not necessarily causal, and food insecurity is not the only factor: sentiment also fell among people not reporting these incidents. They argue that the association, alongside rising food insecurity, may help explain unusually low consumer sentiment even as hard economic data paint a more positive picture. What accounts for the decline in sentiment among respondents who did not report food insecurity remains unknown from this analysis. The authors’ survey measures are related to, but differ from, the USDA’s official measure of food insecurity.
Original source
Federal Reserve Bank of New York · Article
Source details
Original source date: May 27, 2026 (2026-05-27T14:30:00.000Z).
Date basis: Date supplied by the publisher’s feed.
Added to Escape Meridian: 2026-11-07T00:38:23.187Z. First observed: 2026-10-30T18:35:58.326Z. Retrieved: 2026-10-30T18:38:01.412Z.
Limits
Text as retrieved on October 30, 2026; originally published May 27, 2026. The authors say the association between food insecurity and consumer pessimism is not necessarily causal. The authors’ survey measures are related to, but differ from, the USDA’s official survey measure of food insecurity.
Open question
What accounts for the decline in sentiment among respondents who did not report food insecurity?
Source-stated
The authors report increased food insecurity and related strains, with generally larger increases among lower-income and lower-educated households and households with children.
The increases were mostly broad-based across race, age, income, and education groups, but were generally larger for non-whites, lower-income and lower-educated households, and households with children
Source-stated
The authors find that respondents reporting food insufficiency or SNAP receipt had lower and more rapidly declining expectations of being better off financially.
among those reporting incidents of food insufficiency (not enough food, received food donations) and SNAP receipt, there is a lower, and more rapidly declining, net share of respondents expecting to be better versus worse off financially
Source-stated
The authors report larger reductions in expected job-finding chances among respondents reporting food needs or SNAP receipt.
we also find considerably larger reductions in the expected job-finding rate (measured as the probability of finding a job in the next three months if one’s current job is lost) for those reporting food needs or SNAP receipt.
Source-stated
The authors say the association may help explain low consumer sentiment, while noting it is not necessarily causal and food insecurity is not the only factor.
While not necessarily causal, the observed positive association between food insecurity and overall consumer pessimism, together with the increase in the incidence of food insecurity
Source-stated
The authors report a decline in financial expectations among respondents who did not report food-insecurity incidents, followed by a partial reversal.
even among those not reporting these incidents of food insecurity we find a sizable decline between 2020 and October 2025 in the net share of respondents expecting to be better versus worse off a year from now, though this decline was followed by partial reversal from October 2025 to February 2026.
Source-stated
The authors say their food-insecurity measures differ from the USDA’s official survey measure.
our measures differ from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) official survey measure of food insecurity
Source and contributor context
Federal Reserve Bank of New York · Publisher
The publisher is identified here. No individual author has been inferred.
Source media
Media retrieval status: unchecked.
Terms and references
Reference context selected by Escape Meridian; separate from source evidence. Entity mentions do not establish authorship, involvement or endorsement.
Editorial provenance
Version 1. Publication ID: 98cf44e6-17fa-f9be-f970-b6150d17847e.
Prepared by openai/gpt-6-luna; grounding review by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5.
Source check: uncertain by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5 on 2026-11-07T00:33:42.094Z. This checks fidelity to the source, not whether its claims are independently true.
Editorial selection: accept; reasons: bridge_admitted_by_model.
Observation: ea3d3c544b6169fc8c9c5baab2f1b30d45c5b15cbf00e4ce08ec3bfd70209c24. Source text hash: 925f3e36a919b149d2ef8f5c5a58be3470bd52cc39b5b34fa69d5d8196923482.
uncertain · 2026-11-07T00:33:42.094Z · anthropic/claude-opus-5.5
Publication: 98cf44e6-17fa-f9be-f970-b6150d17847e
attribution — pass: The reading correctly attributes the post to Gizem Kosar, Ishva Mehta, and Wilbert van der Klaauw in Liberty Street Economics. It is a single analytical post, and its claims remain attributed to the authors.
Gizem Kosar, Ishva Mehta, and Wilbert van der Klaauw
summary — uncertain: The summary is faithful, and its caveats and question follow from the source. However, SNAP is a central measure in the reading and is never explained; it could be glossed as U.S. federal food assistance. The definitions list is empty. The reading also does not say that the Survey of Consumer Expectations is run by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which leaves the data source opaque to a non-specialist. Smallest repair: briefly gloss SNAP and identify the survey as the New York Fed's monthly household survey.
The SCE is a monthly internet-based survey that has been conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York since June 2013.
date — pass: May 27, 2026 matches the UTC calendar day of originalPublished and the dateline. The page was modified on 2026-06-30, but the date cited is plainly part of the original dateline and citation. There is no hindsight framing. The survey waves cited, from 2020, October 2025 and February 2026, all predate publication. The evidence is a publisher page, so no archive disclosure is needed.
May 27, 2026 Food Insecurity and Consumer Pessimism
support — pass: Every claim is backed by a verbatim excerpt from the core article body. That body is plainly part of the original post, so the later dateModified edit does not cast doubt on these passages. The reading preserves the not-necessarily-causal caveat and the partial reversal among respondents not reporting food insecurity. The excerpts ground what the authors report but do not independently verify the findings.
While not necessarily causal, the observed positive association between food insecurity and overall consumer pessimism
media — pass: No media is selected, and no verified media candidates were supplied, so nothing is misidentified or irrelevant.
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