Federal Reserve Bank of New York · Dec 12, 2025
Marco Del Negro and coauthors report a New York Fed model forecast in Liberty Street Economics
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Published December twelfth, twenty twenty-five, Marco Del Negro, Ibrahima Diagne, Keshav Dogra, Elena Elbarmi, Donggyu Lee, and Michael Pham update the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model forecast. They report a stronger growth outlook for 2025 than in September, attributing the change to a more accommodative projected policy-rate path and an unexpected increase in productivity. They attribute higher inflation projections for 2025 and 2026 to cost-push shocks, which they say arguably capture tariff effects. They also say the model’s lower 2025 prediction for the short-run real natural rate of interest reflects a productivity increase the model views as largely temporary. The authors stress that this is not an official New York Fed forecast, but an input to Research staff’s overall forecasting process. Their account describes how policy expectations, productivity, and cost-push shocks shape the model’s outlook; the forecast does not establish what the economy will do. It uses data through 2025:Q2, along with survey forecasts and market yields for later quarters. How will incoming data and revisions to those inputs affect the model’s forecast?
Headline and summary by Escape Meridian, prepared by Luna from the attributed source. A source check is not independent confirmation of the source’s claims.
Original source
Federal Reserve Bank of New York · Article
Source details
Original source date: Dec 12, 2025 (2025-12-12T14:00:00.000Z).
Date basis: Date supplied by the publisher’s feed.
Added to Escape Meridian: 2026-11-09T16:03:23.360Z. First observed: 2026-10-30T19:46:15.968Z. Retrieved: 2026-10-30T21:05:44.679Z.
Referenced by
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Limits
Text as retrieved on October 30, 2026; originally published December 12, 2025. The authors state that this model forecast is not an official New York Fed forecast and is only an input to Research staff’s overall forecasting process. The forecast incorporates survey forecasts and market yields for later quarters; it is a model projection, not an account of observed outcomes.
Open question
How will incoming data and revisions to the survey forecasts and market-yield inputs affect the model’s forecast?
Source-stated
The authors report that the model forecasts stronger growth in 2025 than it did in September, attributing the change to a more accommodative projected policy-rate path and an unexpected increase in productivity.
Growth in 2025 is forecasted to be almost half a percentage point stronger than in September (1.8 versus 1.4 percent).
Source-stated
The authors say cost-push shocks, which they argue capture tariff effects, raise the model’s inflation projections for 2025 and 2026 relative to September.
The DSGE attributes this forecast error to cost-push shocks, which arguably capture the effects of tariffs.
Source-stated
The authors attribute the model’s lower 2025 prediction for the short-run real natural rate of interest to a productivity increase they view as largely temporary.
because of the level increase in total factor productivity (TFP), which the model views as largely temporary
Source-stated
The authors say the DSGE model forecast is an input to the New York Fed Research staff’s overall forecasting process, not an official New York Fed forecast.
The DSGE model forecast is not an official New York Fed forecast, but only an input to the Research staff’s overall forecasting process.
Source-stated
The authors say the forecast uses data through 2025:Q2, augmented with survey forecasts and market yields for later quarters.
use data released through 2025:Q2, augmented for 2025:Q3 and 2025:Q4 with the median forecasts
Source and contributor context
Federal Reserve Bank of New York · Publisher
The publisher is identified here. No individual author has been inferred.
Source media
Media retrieval status: unchecked.
Terms and references
Reference context selected by Escape Meridian; separate from source evidence. Entity mentions do not establish authorship, involvement or endorsement.
Editorial provenance
Version 1. Publication ID: 832650b1-07fa-69d3-a743-7a7b97c4b813.
Prepared by openai/gpt-6-luna; grounding review by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5.
Source check: uncertain by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5 on 2026-11-09T15:58:45.173Z. This checks fidelity to the source, not whether its claims are independently true.
Editorial selection: accept; reasons: bridge_admitted_by_model.
Observation: de06fbb30dd26fe4f2d41e9331e8c56ec310d72f5e97d40c37795dc3d435ae6f. Source text hash: cf086c63d7d2e4818483e6f14d073f96291ca3717a21020b51aa909b205f4bc7.
Revision and source-check history
Version 1 · 2026-11-09T16:03:23.360Z
Marco Del Negro and coauthors report a New York Fed model forecast in Liberty Street Economics
Published December twelfth, twenty twenty-five, Marco Del Negro, Ibrahima Diagne, Keshav Dogra, Elena Elbarmi, Donggyu Lee, and Michael Pham update the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model forecast. They report a stronger growth outlook for 2025 than in September, attributing the change to a more accommodative projected policy-rate path and an unexpected increase in productivity. They attribute higher inflation projections for 2025 and 2026 to cost-push shocks, which they say arguably capture tariff effects. They also say the model’s lower 2025 prediction for the short-run real natural rate of interest reflects a productivity increase the model views as largely temporary. The authors stress that this is not an official New York Fed forecast, but an input to Research staff’s overall forecasting process. Their account describes how policy expectations, productivity, and cost-push shocks shape the model’s outlook; the forecast does not establish what the economy will do. It uses data through 2025:Q2, along with survey forecasts and market yields for later quarters. How will incoming data and revisions to those inputs affect the model’s forecast?
Original source
Federal Reserve Bank of New York · Article
Source details
Original source date: Dec 12, 2025 (2025-12-12T14:00:00.000Z).
Date basis: Date supplied by the publisher’s feed.
Added to Escape Meridian: 2026-11-09T16:03:23.360Z. First observed: 2026-10-30T19:46:15.968Z. Retrieved: 2026-10-30T21:05:44.679Z.
Limits
Text as retrieved on October 30, 2026; originally published December 12, 2025. The authors state that this model forecast is not an official New York Fed forecast and is only an input to Research staff’s overall forecasting process. The forecast incorporates survey forecasts and market yields for later quarters; it is a model projection, not an account of observed outcomes.
Open question
How will incoming data and revisions to the survey forecasts and market-yield inputs affect the model’s forecast?
Source-stated
The authors report that the model forecasts stronger growth in 2025 than it did in September, attributing the change to a more accommodative projected policy-rate path and an unexpected increase in productivity.
Growth in 2025 is forecasted to be almost half a percentage point stronger than in September (1.8 versus 1.4 percent).
Source-stated
The authors say cost-push shocks, which they argue capture tariff effects, raise the model’s inflation projections for 2025 and 2026 relative to September.
The DSGE attributes this forecast error to cost-push shocks, which arguably capture the effects of tariffs.
Source-stated
The authors attribute the model’s lower 2025 prediction for the short-run real natural rate of interest to a productivity increase they view as largely temporary.
because of the level increase in total factor productivity (TFP), which the model views as largely temporary
Source-stated
The authors say the DSGE model forecast is an input to the New York Fed Research staff’s overall forecasting process, not an official New York Fed forecast.
The DSGE model forecast is not an official New York Fed forecast, but only an input to the Research staff’s overall forecasting process.
Source-stated
The authors say the forecast uses data through 2025:Q2, augmented with survey forecasts and market yields for later quarters.
use data released through 2025:Q2, augmented for 2025:Q3 and 2025:Q4 with the median forecasts
Source and contributor context
Federal Reserve Bank of New York · Publisher
The publisher is identified here. No individual author has been inferred.
Source media
Media retrieval status: unchecked.
Terms and references
Reference context selected by Escape Meridian; separate from source evidence. Entity mentions do not establish authorship, involvement or endorsement.
Editorial provenance
Version 1. Publication ID: 832650b1-07fa-69d3-a743-7a7b97c4b813.
Prepared by openai/gpt-6-luna; grounding review by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5.
Source check: uncertain by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5 on 2026-11-09T15:58:45.173Z. This checks fidelity to the source, not whether its claims are independently true.
Editorial selection: accept; reasons: bridge_admitted_by_model.
Observation: de06fbb30dd26fe4f2d41e9331e8c56ec310d72f5e97d40c37795dc3d435ae6f. Source text hash: cf086c63d7d2e4818483e6f14d073f96291ca3717a21020b51aa909b205f4bc7.
uncertain · 2026-11-09T15:58:45.173Z · anthropic/claude-opus-5.5
Publication: 832650b1-07fa-69d3-a743-7a7b97c4b813
attribution — pass: The six named authors, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Liberty Street Economics match the byline and citation. This is one post, not a listing. The 'not an official New York Fed forecast' caveat is correctly attributed to the authors.
Marco Del Negro, Ibrahima Diagne, Keshav Dogra, Elena Elbarmi, Donggyu Lee, and Michael Pham
summary — uncertain: The summary is otherwise faithful, but its central terms go unexplained and the definitions list is empty. DSGE is spelled out but not explained. Cost-push shocks, the short-run real natural rate of interest (r*), an accommodative policy-rate path and notation like 2025:Q2 are not explained in plain language. A non-specialist reader may not grasp what changed or why it matters. Smallest repair: add term-library entries for DSGE, r*, cost-push shock and policy rate. Separately, the summary never states the headline numbers (growth 1.8 vs 1.4, core PCE inflation 3.0 vs 2.8) or the 37.5 percent recession probability, which carry the post's substance.
The model’s predictions for the short-run real natural rate of interest (or r*) in 2025 have decreased relative to September.
date — pass: The reading's date, December 12, 2025, matches the dateline and the UTC day of evidence.originalPublished. Forecasts are presented as model projections, not outcomes. The page is not an archive copy, and the retrieval date is disclosed. The reading does not use the sidebar links to other posts.
December 12, 2025
support — uncertain: Several attributions shift from the model to the authors. Claim 3 says the productivity increase is one 'they view as largely temporary', but the source says the model views it that way. Repair: change it to 'the model views'. The growth explanation is also 'The model attributes', while the reading has the authors attributing it. Claim 2's 'they argue' slightly hardens the source's hedge 'arguably'. The other claims, including the inflation, r* and data-input details, match the source.
which the model views as largely temporary
media — pass: No media was selected, and no verified media candidates were supplied, so this is appropriate.
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