Federal Reserve Bank of New York · Oct 6, 2026
Mary Amiti, Sebastian Heise, and David E. Weinstein argue in Liberty Street Economics that tariffs raise consumer prices
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In a post published October 6, 2026, Mary Amiti, Sebastian Heise, and David E. Weinstein estimate that tariff increases raise consumer goods prices through imported goods and goods made in the U.S. They estimate that about a quarter of a tariff increase reaches consumer prices after a year. Imported prices respond quickly; higher costs and less pressure from competing imports push up U.S. producers’ prices more slowly. The authors conclude that tariffs leave consumer goods price levels higher even as their contribution to inflation fades. Their forecast assumes tariffs stay at end-of-September 2026 levels, except for an announced increase on Canadian autos. The estimates compare non-oil consumer goods with differing tariff exposure and exclude services, which account for about two-thirds of the consumer basket. The authors say the comparisons cannot establish how much broader price movements tariffs caused; the estimates hold economy-wide factors fixed. How changes in those factors affect the estimated tariff contribution remains unknown.
Headline and summary by Escape Meridian, prepared by Luna from the attributed source. A source check is not independent confirmation of the source’s claims.
Original source
Federal Reserve Bank of New York · Article
Source details
Original source date: Oct 6, 2026 (2026-10-06T11:00:00.000Z).
Date basis: Date supplied by the publisher’s feed.
Added to Escape Meridian: 2026-11-05T04:53:23.372Z. First observed: 2026-10-30T19:34:52.502Z. Retrieved: 2026-10-30T20:57:50.810Z.
Referenced by
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Limits
Text as retrieved on October 30, 2026; originally published October 6, 2026. The estimates compare non-oil consumer goods with different tariff exposure and hold economy-wide factors fixed; the authors say this cannot establish how much broader price movements were caused by tariffs. The forecast depends on the stated tariff assumptions, including the announced increase on Canadian autos.
Open question
How would changes in economy-wide factors, such as wages, consumer demand, or monetary policy, alter the estimated tariff contribution to consumer goods prices?
Source-stated
Amiti, Heise, and Weinstein estimate that a tariff increase raises consumer goods prices by about a quarter of the tariff increase after a year.
for every percentage point increase in average tariffs, consumer goods prices increase by about a quarter of a percent after one year.
Source-stated
The authors estimate that most of the effect comes from imported consumer goods, with the rest coming indirectly through prices of U.S.-made goods.
About two-thirds of this effect is direct, driven by higher prices of imported consumer goods. The remaining third is the indirect effect from U.S.-made goods
Source-stated
The authors say the full effect takes time because imported prices respond quickly while domestic producer prices adjust more slowly.
Prices of imported goods respond quickly to tariffs, while prices of U.S.-made goods adjust over six to twelve months as higher costs move through the supply chain.
Source-stated
The authors conclude tariffs left consumer goods price levels higher while their contribution to inflation fades.
Taken together, the two panels show that tariffs have left consumer goods price levels higher, while their effect on inflation fades.
Source-stated
The authors’ forecast assumes tariffs stay at end-of-September 2026 levels, except for an announced increase on Canadian autos.
We assume tariffs remain at their end-of-September 2026 levels, except for the announced January 2027 tariff increase on Canadian cars, trucks, and auto parts.
Source-stated
The authors’ estimates exclude services and cannot establish how much broader price movements were caused by tariffs.
The sample excludes services, which account for about two-thirds of the consumer basket. These comparisons help separate tariff-related price increases from broader movements in prices, but cannot establish how much of those broader movements was itself caused by tariffs.
Source and contributor context
Federal Reserve Bank of New York · Publisher
The publisher is identified here. No individual author has been inferred.
Source media
Media retrieval status: unchecked.
Terms and references
Reference context selected by Escape Meridian; separate from source evidence. Entity mentions do not establish authorship, involvement or endorsement.
Editorial provenance
Version 1. Publication ID: 3a4fbf98-9930-3d03-7800-06df28cf718d.
Prepared by openai/gpt-6-luna; grounding review by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5.
Source check: passed by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5 on 2026-11-05T04:49:17.768Z. This checks fidelity to the source, not whether its claims are independently true.
Editorial selection: accept; reasons: bridge_admitted_by_model.
Observation: 20bb2f9264e77733226416312dde5b9004f3b482eb4b1530071d933c0cabe095. Source text hash: 21318ac0cbe9443e6c98ee541fe384b1d47a07fba852b413cee285e845d9f762.
Revision and source-check history
Version 1 · 2026-11-05T04:53:23.372Z
Mary Amiti, Sebastian Heise, and David E. Weinstein argue in Liberty Street Economics that tariffs raise consumer prices
In a post published October 6, 2026, Mary Amiti, Sebastian Heise, and David E. Weinstein estimate that tariff increases raise consumer goods prices through imported goods and goods made in the U.S. They estimate that about a quarter of a tariff increase reaches consumer prices after a year. Imported prices respond quickly; higher costs and less pressure from competing imports push up U.S. producers’ prices more slowly. The authors conclude that tariffs leave consumer goods price levels higher even as their contribution to inflation fades. Their forecast assumes tariffs stay at end-of-September 2026 levels, except for an announced increase on Canadian autos. The estimates compare non-oil consumer goods with differing tariff exposure and exclude services, which account for about two-thirds of the consumer basket. The authors say the comparisons cannot establish how much broader price movements tariffs caused; the estimates hold economy-wide factors fixed. How changes in those factors affect the estimated tariff contribution remains unknown.
Original source
Federal Reserve Bank of New York · Article
Source details
Original source date: Oct 6, 2026 (2026-10-06T11:00:00.000Z).
Date basis: Date supplied by the publisher’s feed.
Added to Escape Meridian: 2026-11-05T04:53:23.372Z. First observed: 2026-10-30T19:34:52.502Z. Retrieved: 2026-10-30T20:57:50.810Z.
Limits
Text as retrieved on October 30, 2026; originally published October 6, 2026. The estimates compare non-oil consumer goods with different tariff exposure and hold economy-wide factors fixed; the authors say this cannot establish how much broader price movements were caused by tariffs. The forecast depends on the stated tariff assumptions, including the announced increase on Canadian autos.
Open question
How would changes in economy-wide factors, such as wages, consumer demand, or monetary policy, alter the estimated tariff contribution to consumer goods prices?
Source-stated
Amiti, Heise, and Weinstein estimate that a tariff increase raises consumer goods prices by about a quarter of the tariff increase after a year.
for every percentage point increase in average tariffs, consumer goods prices increase by about a quarter of a percent after one year.
Source-stated
The authors estimate that most of the effect comes from imported consumer goods, with the rest coming indirectly through prices of U.S.-made goods.
About two-thirds of this effect is direct, driven by higher prices of imported consumer goods. The remaining third is the indirect effect from U.S.-made goods
Source-stated
The authors say the full effect takes time because imported prices respond quickly while domestic producer prices adjust more slowly.
Prices of imported goods respond quickly to tariffs, while prices of U.S.-made goods adjust over six to twelve months as higher costs move through the supply chain.
Source-stated
The authors conclude tariffs left consumer goods price levels higher while their contribution to inflation fades.
Taken together, the two panels show that tariffs have left consumer goods price levels higher, while their effect on inflation fades.
Source-stated
The authors’ forecast assumes tariffs stay at end-of-September 2026 levels, except for an announced increase on Canadian autos.
We assume tariffs remain at their end-of-September 2026 levels, except for the announced January 2027 tariff increase on Canadian cars, trucks, and auto parts.
Source-stated
The authors’ estimates exclude services and cannot establish how much broader price movements were caused by tariffs.
The sample excludes services, which account for about two-thirds of the consumer basket. These comparisons help separate tariff-related price increases from broader movements in prices, but cannot establish how much of those broader movements was itself caused by tariffs.
Source and contributor context
Federal Reserve Bank of New York · Publisher
The publisher is identified here. No individual author has been inferred.
Source media
Media retrieval status: unchecked.
Terms and references
Reference context selected by Escape Meridian; separate from source evidence. Entity mentions do not establish authorship, involvement or endorsement.
Editorial provenance
Version 1. Publication ID: 3a4fbf98-9930-3d03-7800-06df28cf718d.
Prepared by openai/gpt-6-luna; grounding review by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5.
Source check: passed by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5 on 2026-11-05T04:49:17.768Z. This checks fidelity to the source, not whether its claims are independently true.
Editorial selection: accept; reasons: bridge_admitted_by_model.
Observation: 20bb2f9264e77733226416312dde5b9004f3b482eb4b1530071d933c0cabe095. Source text hash: 21318ac0cbe9443e6c98ee541fe384b1d47a07fba852b413cee285e845d9f762.
passed · 2026-11-05T04:49:17.768Z · anthropic/claude-opus-5.5
Publication: 3a4fbf98-9930-3d03-7800-06df28cf718d
attribution — pass: The reading correctly attributes the estimates and conclusions to Mary Amiti, Sebastian Heise, and David E. Weinstein in the New York Fed's Liberty Street Economics. This is one authored post, not a listing. The reader comment at the end is not used.
Mary Amiti, Sebastian Heise, and David E. Weinstein
summary — pass: The summary is readable without specialist background. It names the actors and states the central finding: about a quarter of a tariff increase reaches consumer goods prices within a year. It explains the direct and indirect routes in plain language and keeps the authors' limits: no services, economy-wide factors held fixed, and a conditional forecast. The question follows from the authors' own caveat. The tariff topic is a scope-fit matter for the decision, not a fidelity flaw.
Tariffs may also affect these economy-wide factors in ways that amplify or offset the price pressures we estimate.
date — pass: originalPublished (2026-10-06) matches the post's dateline and citation. This is a publisher page, so no archive disclosure is needed. The forecast through 2027 is presented as the authors' assumption-based forecast, not an outcome. Later-dated material, such as the reader comment on refunds, is not used. modifiedAt (Oct 9) exists, but no claim relies on unclear later text.
October 6, 2026
support — pass: Every claim matches a verbatim excerpt and stays attributed. These include the quarter pass-through, the two-thirds direct and one-third indirect split, the timing difference, the higher price levels with fading inflation effect, the forecast assumptions, and the exclusion of services. The reading adds no unsupported benefits or costs. Source-grounding does not independently verify the economic estimates.
About two-thirds of this effect is direct, driven by higher prices of imported consumer goods. The remaining third is the indirect effect from U.S.-made goods
media — pass: No media was selected, and none was supplied among the verified candidates. The null mediaId is consistent with the evidence.
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