Federal Reserve Bank of New York · Oct 8, 2026
Will Aarons and Asani Sarkar argue in Liberty Street Economics that AI users expect growth
Markdown · JSON · Original source
Will Aarons and Asani Sarkar’s analysis, published October 8, 2026, uses the 2025 Small Business Credit Survey to compare small businesses that use AI with those that do not. The authors report that AI users are more likely to expect employment and revenue growth, even after accounting for firm and owner characteristics and past employment or revenue changes. They find a stronger association between AI use and expected revenue growth among firms reporting weak financial conditions or challenges using technology. The authors suggest AI may help some small businesses overcome operational or technical constraints that limit revenue generation, rather than the results simply reflecting optimism or expectations of expansion through hiring. The survey measures expectations, not later outcomes. The authors conclude that whether AI-adopting firms actually experience the stronger revenue and employment outcomes they anticipate remains a subject for future research.
Headline and summary by Escape Meridian, prepared by Luna from the attributed source. A source check is not independent confirmation of the source’s claims.
Original source
Federal Reserve Bank of New York · Article
Source details
Original source date: Oct 8, 2026 (2026-10-08T11:00:00.000Z).
Date basis: Date supplied by the publisher’s feed.
Added to Escape Meridian: 2026-11-05T02:23:23.212Z. First observed: 2026-10-23T15:30:21.019Z. Retrieved: 2026-10-23T15:41:40.619Z.
Referenced by
Recorded citations and public file attachments. A reference alone does not establish agreement or influence.
No public references recorded here yet.
Limits
The survey records expectations; it does not establish whether firms later experienced the expected revenue or employment outcomes. Text as retrieved on October 23, 2026; originally published October 8, 2026.
Open question
Do AI-adopting small businesses go on to achieve the stronger revenue and employment outcomes they expect?
Source-stated
Aarons and Sarkar report that AI users were more likely than non-users to expect employment and revenue growth, even after accounting for firm and owner characteristics.
firms currently using AI are significantly more likely than non-users to expect increased employment and revenues over the next year, even after accounting for firm and owner characteristics and location.
Source-stated
The authors report that AI users' expected employment growth remained higher after accounting for past employment changes.
even after we include past employment changes in the analysis, the gap in expected employment growth between AI users and non-users remains positive
Source-stated
The authors report a stronger association between AI use and expected revenue growth among firms facing technology challenges.
among AI users, those currently facing technology challenges have a 16 percentage point higher net expectation of revenue growth than those who do not report being so challenged.
Source-stated
The authors say whether AI-adopting firms achieve the stronger outcomes they expect remains unknown and requires future research.
Whether AI-adopting firms actually experience the stronger revenue and employment outcomes they anticipate is a subject for future research.
Source and contributor context
Federal Reserve Bank of New York · Publisher
The publisher is identified here. No individual author has been inferred.
Source media
Media retrieval status: unchecked.
Terms and references
Reference context selected by Escape Meridian; separate from source evidence. Entity mentions do not establish authorship, involvement or endorsement.
Editorial provenance
Version 1. Publication ID: 6615a76d-2a74-b156-6f1a-41353af1b0fd.
Prepared by openai/gpt-6-luna; grounding review by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5.
Source check: passed by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5 on 2026-11-05T02:19:11.185Z. This checks fidelity to the source, not whether its claims are independently true.
Editorial selection: accept; reasons: bridge_screen.
Observation: 99e888e9490444840e9a0db1cc0b2b5e91974c1cf7d1e7f382731d4760476237. Source text hash: c830c254c4fe73acf80a644183260a5ed0e2fbb6e46d92c5463b9e06938d162a.
Revision and source-check history
Version 1 · 2026-11-05T02:23:23.212Z
Will Aarons and Asani Sarkar argue in Liberty Street Economics that AI users expect growth
Will Aarons and Asani Sarkar’s analysis, published October 8, 2026, uses the 2025 Small Business Credit Survey to compare small businesses that use AI with those that do not. The authors report that AI users are more likely to expect employment and revenue growth, even after accounting for firm and owner characteristics and past employment or revenue changes. They find a stronger association between AI use and expected revenue growth among firms reporting weak financial conditions or challenges using technology. The authors suggest AI may help some small businesses overcome operational or technical constraints that limit revenue generation, rather than the results simply reflecting optimism or expectations of expansion through hiring. The survey measures expectations, not later outcomes. The authors conclude that whether AI-adopting firms actually experience the stronger revenue and employment outcomes they anticipate remains a subject for future research.
Original source
Federal Reserve Bank of New York · Article
Source details
Original source date: Oct 8, 2026 (2026-10-08T11:00:00.000Z).
Date basis: Date supplied by the publisher’s feed.
Added to Escape Meridian: 2026-11-05T02:23:23.212Z. First observed: 2026-10-23T15:30:21.019Z. Retrieved: 2026-10-23T15:41:40.619Z.
Limits
The survey records expectations; it does not establish whether firms later experienced the expected revenue or employment outcomes. Text as retrieved on October 23, 2026; originally published October 8, 2026.
Open question
Do AI-adopting small businesses go on to achieve the stronger revenue and employment outcomes they expect?
Source-stated
Aarons and Sarkar report that AI users were more likely than non-users to expect employment and revenue growth, even after accounting for firm and owner characteristics.
firms currently using AI are significantly more likely than non-users to expect increased employment and revenues over the next year, even after accounting for firm and owner characteristics and location.
Source-stated
The authors report that AI users' expected employment growth remained higher after accounting for past employment changes.
even after we include past employment changes in the analysis, the gap in expected employment growth between AI users and non-users remains positive
Source-stated
The authors report a stronger association between AI use and expected revenue growth among firms facing technology challenges.
among AI users, those currently facing technology challenges have a 16 percentage point higher net expectation of revenue growth than those who do not report being so challenged.
Source-stated
The authors say whether AI-adopting firms achieve the stronger outcomes they expect remains unknown and requires future research.
Whether AI-adopting firms actually experience the stronger revenue and employment outcomes they anticipate is a subject for future research.
Source and contributor context
Federal Reserve Bank of New York · Publisher
The publisher is identified here. No individual author has been inferred.
Source media
Media retrieval status: unchecked.
Terms and references
Reference context selected by Escape Meridian; separate from source evidence. Entity mentions do not establish authorship, involvement or endorsement.
Editorial provenance
Version 1. Publication ID: 6615a76d-2a74-b156-6f1a-41353af1b0fd.
Prepared by openai/gpt-6-luna; grounding review by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5.
Source check: passed by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5 on 2026-11-05T02:19:11.185Z. This checks fidelity to the source, not whether its claims are independently true.
Editorial selection: accept; reasons: bridge_screen.
Observation: 99e888e9490444840e9a0db1cc0b2b5e91974c1cf7d1e7f382731d4760476237. Source text hash: c830c254c4fe73acf80a644183260a5ed0e2fbb6e46d92c5463b9e06938d162a.
passed · 2026-11-05T02:19:11.185Z · anthropic/claude-opus-5.5
Publication: 6615a76d-2a74-b156-6f1a-41353af1b0fd
attribution — pass: The reading correctly attributes the analysis to Will Aarons and Asani Sarkar, writing in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Liberty Street Economics. Findings are framed as the authors' reports and suggestions throughout. This is a single authored post, not a listing.
Will Aarons and Asani Sarkar
summary — pass: The summary names the actors, the data source (the 2025 Small Business Credit Survey), the comparison of AI users with non-users, the controls, the stronger associations among weaker firms and technology-challenged firms, and the authors' interpretation. It also preserves their caveat that actual outcomes are untested. The title and question follow from the source. A general reader can follow it without specialist terms.
Whether AI-adopting firms actually experience the stronger revenue and employment outcomes they anticipate is a subject for future research.
date — pass: evidence.originalPublished is 2026-10-08, which matches the source dateline of October 8, 2026, and the reading states only the day. The 'You may also be interested in' list is not used. There is no hindsight framing, and the expectations are not presented as outcomes. The kind is publisher-page, so no archive disclosure is needed.
October 8, 2026
support — pass: Every claim matches the authors' stated findings. These are users' expectations after controls, robustness to past employment and revenue changes, stronger associations among firms in fair or poor financial condition and those with technology challenges, and the open question of actual outcomes. The interpretation about overcoming constraints is attributed as the authors' suggestion. No benefits are overstated.
The association between AI adoption and revenue expectations is especially strong among firms in weaker financial condition and among firms that report challenges utilizing technology.
media — pass: No media is selected, and no verified media candidates were supplied, so there is no identity or relevance concern.
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