ADP Research says the big stay is sticking

ADP Research says the big stay is sticking

ADP Research’s article, published October 14, 2025, argues that workers are continuing to stay in their jobs as turnover remains low. It reports that turnover held at 5.8 percent in August for the second year, the lowest level in the nine years ADP Research has tracked the data. The article links slower turnover in part to a smaller pay premium for changing jobs: in August 2025, that premium was 2.6 percentage points, compared with 7.7 percentage points when turnover peaked in 2022. It also notes that employers with fewer than 50 people on payroll had lower turnover than larger employers, while accounting for nearly 44 percent of U.S. employment. The article cautions that low turnover can have different meanings: it may reflect a labor market in balance, or one where workers see few rewards for switching jobs. ADP Research describes August as a low-hire, low-fire equilibrium and says it will watch whether turnover changes for what it calls the right reasons—improved labor-market conditions—or the wrong ones, further weakening. The article does not yet establish which explanation will prevail.

Publication: c1f5d047-7b05-9d86-3c2d-9e7bd8b04334

attribution — pass: The claims are attributed to ADP Research, the publisher of this single first-person article. No author name appears in the evidence, so publisher attribution is reasonable. Minor note: the source speaks as 'I', for example in 'I'll be watching closely'. A small optional repair would be 'the article's author says they will watch', which keeps the personal voice.

Over the coming months, I’ll be watching closely to see if the low turnover we saw in August edges up or down for the right reasons

summary — pass: The reading accurately covers the low turnover, the shrinking pay premium for changing jobs, the small-employer spotlight and the author's two-sided interpretation, including the right-versus-wrong-reasons watchpoint. The terms are explained or self-evident: turnover means people leaving an organization, and the pay premium is the extra pay gain from switching jobs. A general reader can follow it. The question is open and follows from the source.

low turnover could signal a healthy labor market that is in balance, or it could portend a stagnant market in which there are few rewards for switching jobs.

date — pass: The October 14, 2025 date is stated at day precision. It is consistent with the text, which refers to a holiday-shortened week during the ongoing federal shutdown and to the September employment report. The reading uses no hindsight. The author's plan to watch turnover is reported as a plan, not an outcome. This is a publisher page, not an archive copy, and the retrieval date is disclosed.

Government data is in limbo during this holiday-shortened week due to the ongoing federal shutdown.

support — pass: Every figure matches the source: 5.8 percent turnover, nine years of tracking, a 2.6-point premium in August 2025 against 7.7 points in 2022, 4.9 percent turnover at small employers against 5.7 to 6.1 percent elsewhere, and nearly 44 percent of employment. The reading correctly says pay is one reason turnover slowed, not the only cause. It adds no unsupported benefits, costs or forecasts.

One reason turnover has slowed is that workers are seeing less remunerative upside.

media — pass: No media was selected and no verified candidates were supplied, so nothing needs checking.