Martin Almuzara, Richard Audoly, and Davide Melcangi assess wage inflation in Liberty Street Economics

Martin Almuzara, Richard Audoly, and Davide Melcangi assess wage inflation in Liberty Street Economics

The post was published on May 26, 2026. Martin Almuzara, Richard Audoly, and Davide Melcangi use Trend Wage Inflation (TWIn), their measure of persistent wage growth, to assess underlying wage inflation. They report that TWIn’s decline after its late-2021 peak has slowed, with the measure near its 2017-19 average. They say this flattening is consistent with a broadly balanced labor market, while the narrower gap between TWIn and trend price inflation suggests households’ earnings have grown more slowly in real terms than in the second half of the 2010s. The authors find that most of TWIn’s decline was common across industries, but construction and mining have diverged: their industry-specific trend has risen since 2022, leaving wage growth there persistently stronger than in the rest of the economy. They suggest construction of AI data centers and reductions in net immigration could contribute to this pattern; they do not establish either as its cause. The authors’ conclusion is that wage inflation’s easing appears to have slowed, but its direction remains uncertain: construction may continue to put some upward pressure on it, while deteriorating labor market conditions could renew downward pressure. The post does not establish how those forces will develop.

Publication: c030e4ac-f840-3746-284b-01ccfb4733b0

attribution — pass: The reading correctly attributes the post and its analysis to Martin Almuzara, Richard Audoly, and Davide Melcangi in the New York Fed's Liberty Street Economics. Their findings and suggestions are kept as the authors' statements. The text is a single post, not a listing.

Martin Almuzara, Richard Audoly, and Davide Melcangi

summary — pass: The summary faithfully conveys the post's main findings: TWIn leveling off near the 2017-19 average, a broadly common decline across industries, the construction and mining divergence, the tentative AI data center and immigration explanations, and the two-sided outlook. TWIn is explained in plain terms. The question adds mining where the source's outlook names only construction, but this is a minor scope detail and the question stays grounded.

After a prolonged period of moderation, the easing in our TWIn measure appears to have slowed.

date — pass: May 26, 2026 matches the source dateline and the UTC day of originalPublished. The page was edited after publication (dateModified September 30, 2026), but the cited body text is plainly part of the original dated post. The October 2025 shutdown note predates publication. The outlook is reported as the authors' forecast, not an outcome, and there is no hindsight framing. As a publisher page, the reading needs no archive disclosure.

May 26, 2026 Assessing the Current State of Wage Inflation

support — pass: Each claim is supported by the post's body, which is plainly original despite the later page edit. This includes the rising construction and mining idiosyncratic trend since 2022 and the hedged AI data center and immigration explanations. The reading appropriately notes that these causes are not established.

The idiosyncratic trend specific to the construction and mining industry has risen since 2022, in contrast with economy-wide downward pressures to wage growth.

media — pass: No media was selected, and no verified media candidates were supplied, so there is nothing misidentified or irrelevant.